April 20

It lurks, and until arbitrator Shyam Das rules, sometime in the next two months, on the legality of the owners' attempts at contraction, it will lurk in cities far beyond Montreal and Minnesota to potential targets in Florida, Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

Contraction lurks when players and agents look back at last winter's depressed free-agent market, and one sees Kenny Lofton playing like a $10 million player for $1 million.

It lurks as one surveys all the April evidence of a recession: the firing of three managers by April 18, with another three or five lives in the balance; new park attendance lows at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Miller Park in Milwaukee, Jacobs Field in Cleveland, Pro Player Park in Florida, Astros Field in Houston and Comerica Park in Detroit; and attendance decreases (from comparable number of games last season) for 13 franchises, including Florida (-40%), Milwaukee (-29%), Montreal (-43%), Cleveland (-21%), Texas (-23%) and Tampa Bay (-22%).

It lurks when one surveys the April 20 standings and sees the Twins and Expos on the division-leader doorsteps, and wonder how their owners will react if they are in pennant races come June, or if Bud Selig and other owners will consider this their worst nightmare.

It lurks because Selig and several owners believe contraction is one of their answers to what they contend is an industry malaise. They strongly believe it is a way to cut losses created by ill-conceived expansion, with Minnesota and Montreal chosen because they ran 29th and 30th in revenue over the last six seasons. They think contraction is a way to get the players' attention on competitive balance and market imbalance issues: Montreal one winning season in eight (when Pedro Martinez won the Cy Young, then had to be traded), Florida one in nine, Pittsburgh none in nine, Milwaukee none in nine, Deroit none in eight, Kansas City none in eight, Minnesota one in eight, Colorado three in nine (and never more than 84 wins in a season).

Are there competence issues with those franchises? Sure. Davey Lopes paid the price in Milwaukee for an organization whose prior administration provided him with five homegrown players, an inadequate number without big revenues, and from 1991-98 made just one first-round pick (Geoff Jenkins) that impacted the franchise. Philadelphia's two winning seasons in 15 years, Baltimore's four straight losing seasons and Oakland's three straight winning seasons -- after six straight losing years -- are clear testaments to front-office competence. But at this point only the blindfolded wouldn't realize that as the dichotomy between rich and poor increases, free agents and multimillionaire pitching depth can go only to the big markets and that when you live in the bottom half you cannot afford mistakes. Ask Lopes, whose skid was greased by well-intended contracts to Mark Loretta and Jeffrey Hammonds that represent the Brewers' two signature investments and 25 percent of their payroll.

And it still appears that the owners believe in sacrificing Minnesota and Montreal -- perhaps two others, if they can find their way around Florida's unique antitrust laws -- as certainly as they did last winter. Yet, here we are nearly three weeks into the season with these lame ducks playing as if they intend to stick around; in case you haven't noticed, the Twins are winning with their vaunted starters struggling with a 6.86 ERA and Frank Robinson's Expos are -- mirabile dictu -- leading the National League in on-base percentage and walks and winning games they trailed 6-1 in the bottom of the eighth and 6-0 in the top of the first.

"We put that contraction crap behind us when we got to spring training in February," says Twins GM Terry Ryan. "I don't want to hear about it, our players don't want to, either, and there'll be no excuses here. We've got a good team with a legitimate chance to win, we're fortunate in that we have some young talent that we can trade and when the time is right I plan to try to trade some prospects to get what we need to win. We're doing business as usual, and after all the time it took us to get back into contention, we're going to do everything we can to keep our fans coming to the park."

"I can't think too much about the future," says Expos GM Omar Minaya. "I've had to make some deals involving what the people that knew this organization felt were fringe prospects to get us some experience on the major-league team. We've got some very good players here. I'm trying to do some things to give us some more depth, and if we hang around the fringes of the race, I'm going to try to make some deals to give us a chance to make the playoffs, because I think we have a shot.

"I can't worry too much about next year, although I watch this team and it reminds me of the '94 Expos (which had the best record in baseball when the strike hit). I think this team is one year away from being the '94 Expos, and the way I look at it if the club gets moved to some place like Washington and doesn't get contracted, maybe we'll all be fortunate and we'll have the '94 Expos in a new city with some revenues to really do some things."

Yet, around Ryan and Minaya, contraction lurks. Selig insists Carl Pohlad's lawyers cannot find any interested parties to purchase the franchise. When the Minnesota legislature asked Pohlad what he would contribute to the financing of a new stadium, he declined to respond. When Birmingham financier Donald Watkins tried to buy the Twins, he was ignored by Pohlad, trashed by a local newspaper, told by Selig that baseball cannot work in the BaggyDome and steered to Anaheim, where he has made a $250 million offer on the Angels with an approved $150 million line of credit.

When MLB lawyer Robert Dupuy told the Washington Post that baseball in that city was "inevitable," hopes were raised that the Expos might indeed be moved there. But Dupuy assured Selig he explained that inevitability meant longterm, one owner said, "Every time there's an international incident there are people in Washington who write stories about how Bosnia relates to baseball in Washington," and privately owners feel if they are able to do what they want without again being outlawyered by the Players Association that two to four teams will be contracted and two to five years from now expand into Washington and Minnesota (once a ballpark is guaranteed).

The Twins are exactly where they expected to be, in a three-team Central scrum with the White Sox and Indians, and even outdrew the talented Chisox by 10,000 on Friday night. "Our starters haven't pitched well and we haven't caught the ball the way we can and should," says Ryan. "Yet, our bullpen, which was a concern, has been (thanks to Everyday Eddie Guardado, J.C. Romero and Mike Jackson) outstanding. But I'm not concerned about the starters. Eric Milton has had a couple of outstanding starts. Joe Mays has a hot area in his elbow, so we've disabled him for a start, but that's probably why he wasn't pitching well; he should be fine. Brad Radke will get straightened out, and while Rick Reed hasn't thrown the ball as well as he did in New York, I'm not concerned, because I still believe he'll be all right. He can pitch."

The Twins have missed Luis Rivas' defense and energy in the middle of the infield, but the emergence of Jacques Jones and rookie Dustan Mohr -- who looks to be a keeper -- with Torii Hunter (1.047 OPS into the weekend), Corey Koskie, Cristian Guzman and Doug Mientkiewicz should give the Twins a solid offense. Because of the work of the scouting and development folks under Ryan, the Twins are not only a predominantly homegrown club, but have a layer of talent in the wings: OFs Mike Cuddyer, Bobby Kielty and Mike Restovich and pitchers Johan Santana, Brad Thomas, Adam Johnson, Grant Balfour and Juan Rincon.

What lurks is this question: come June, if Ryan can trade kids to get a big bat or experienced pitching, will Pohlad allow him to take on salary? And would winning mess up his buyout from Major League Baseball?

Meanwhile, a few miles north of Swanton, Vermont, in the cozy comfort of Olympic Stadium, The Expos have been fun, and they have been dangerous. Vladimir Guerrero has gone off, with a .442 on base percentage, OPS in seven figures and better than RBI a game. In spring training, Robinson set out to push Guerrero to be better than what he's been, and it apparently has worked. "Frank has used Andres Galarraga and Henry Rodriguez to help get through to Vladimir," says Minaya, "and now you hear Vlad talking about everything in team terms. With everyone, it's been about 'team,' not 'contraction.' It's fun."

Michael Barrett, relaxed and confident, has gone off, and he and Brian Schneider might be the league's premier catching tandem. Jose Vidro, bad shoulder and all, is off to a Vidroesque start, while Peter Bergeron has been leading the league in leadoff on-base percentage. Orlando Cabrera (back) hasn't yet played to his norm, and Minaya expects Fernando Tatis back in early May. Not only that, but Javier Vazquez has yet to win and he, Carl Pavano and Tony Armas were but 3-5 heading into the weekend.

"I'm trying to do some things right now," says Minaya, who with fiscal restraints is scouring Triple-A and Mexican League rosters (he actually has a scout in Mexico trying to find him a pitcher or two). "I'm getting a lot of calls on some of our prospects. I wouldn't trade the best ones, like (SS) Brandon Phillips, but I may be willing to trade the next tier of prospect come June or July if we're in it. And I think we're going to be."

If they are, and attendance triples to, say, 13,000 a game, would the other owners allow Minaya to take an extra $2 million of salary to make a run at it?

Contraction may well be the right course, but as it lurks, the issue is larger than whether or not a team playing in a suburb of Swanton can make baseball work, or whether or not the BaggyDome is adequate. The issue becomes integrity, and if Carl Pohlad and the commissioner's office, owners of these two franchises, find their lame-duck stepchild and, in the Quebecois case, ward of the state in the heat of their divisional and/or wild card races come June, to refuse to allow Ryan and Minaya to try and win will strike the heart of the game far deeper than any balance sheet.

Cost of two veteran players: $2 million for two months.

Cost of the integrity of the game: priceless.