Follow a trend when picking the winner By Harry King Associated Press LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Believers in the mystifying, mathematical calculation called the Dosage Index say it is highly unlikely that Arkansas Derby winner Graeme Hall will repeat in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Graeme Hall has a DI of 4.14 and that's too high, they say. Steve Roman developed the index, a number based on a four-generation pedigree study of a thoroughbred with points for stamina and speed. An analysis of the Kentucky Derby winners began almost 20 years ago and, when it was complete, every Derby winner since 1929 had a DI of 4.00 or less. Strike The Gold ruined the run when he won the 1991 Derby with a dosage of 9.00. Later, his sire, Alydar, was promoted and the new calculation lowered Strike The Gold's index to 2.60. Naysayers pointed to the quick fix, but the dosage index was an accurate indicator until the past two years -- when Real Quiet and Charismatic won at odds of $8.40-1 and $31.30-1. "Dosage, dosage, where are the dosage guys?" winning trainer Bob Baffert said moments after Real Quiet's victory. Graeme Hall is one of the few Derby horses with a dosage over 4.00. The other Arkansas Derby participant in the Run for the Roses -- third-place finisher Impeachment -- qualifies with 1.33. Those who say the foundation of a Derby winner is built at 2 will toss Impeachment and War Chant. In the past 30 years, 73 horses who began their careers after Nov. 1 have run in the Derby and none has won. Impeachment made his first start Dec. 26 and War Chant made his debut Nov. 28. Trippi and Wheelaway did not race in 1999 and no horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882. Fusaichi Pegasus and Anees are bucking a couple of powerful trends -- Wood Memorial winner Fusaichi Pegasus is likely to be favored at less than 2-1 and Anees won the 2-year-old championship last year. Spectacular Bid is the last 2-year-old champion and the last favorite to win the Derby and that was 1979. Fusaichi Pegasus has won four in a row, but he didn't start racing until Dec. 11. Invariably, the Derby winner has finished in the top four in his final prep race. But a winning race is not a must. Thirteen of the past 20 winners have finished second, third or fourth in the race preceding the Derby. That deficiency would catch Hal's Hope -- eighth in the Blue Grass -- and Exchange Rate -- ninth in the Wood. Who knows about Godolphin Racing Inc.'s China Visit, who shows two races in his life. The only one this year was against a bunch of Godolphin's gimmes. That leaves Captain Steve, Deputy Warlock, Commendable, Globalize, Harlan Traveler, High Yield, More Than Ready, The Deputy, and Aptitude. Captain Steve has finished no better than third in three races this year. Deputy Warlock's 3-year-old record is even worse and the track has to be perfect for his late kick to be effective. High Yield might have knocked himself out in his grueling Blue Grass victory over More Than Ready. Naturally, trainer D. Wayne Lukas says no. "I wanted a tough race, but you don't want one that's going to knock him out," Lukas said. "The day after the race our fears were dismissed right away because he did very well."

ESPN.com: Help | Advertiser Info | Contact Us | Tools | Site Map | Jobs at ESPN.com Copyright ©2000 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information are applicable to this site.