The Belmont Stakes
10th Belmont
Distance: 1 1/2 miles
Purse: $1 million
For: 3-year-olds
Grade I

Those who hyped Point Given before the Kentucky Derby were right and wrong all at the same time. They were wrong that he would win the Derby, but right that he would prove to be the outstanding member of his class and go on to be a big star. What happened in the Kentucky Derby? Maybe it was the pace? Maybe he didn't handle the track? Whatever. Put a big line through that race and evaluate Point Given off what he did in the Preakness. On that occasion, he easily handled the best colts in training to win the Preakness by 2 1/4 lengths. The only real question here is whether or not he can duplicate that effort. That's always a bit of an unknown, but all the signs point to Point Given running just as well as he did in the Preakness, if not better. He had just two preps before the Kentucky Derby and did not exert himself in the Derby. That should make him a fresher horse than his compatriots who have gone through the prep, Derby, Preakness grind. Plus, trainer Bob Baffert has been raving about how well his horse has stood up to the campaign. "I brought Silver Charm here and I brought Real Quiet here," he said. "But I never brought a horse to the third leg (of the Triple Crown) that gained 14 pounds from when he ran in the first leg. It has not affected him at all." There are only two negatives to examine: Point Given was all over the place in the stretch run of the Preakness. That, however, is probably due only to his playful, gawky nature and not in any way a sign of unsoundness. He, like everyone not named Balto Star, will be far back of what should be a pedestrian pace. No matter, he's the best horse and the best horse should win. How about Balto Star? That he was beaten 32 lengths in the Kentucky Derby is meaningless. Under jockey Mark Guidry, he was done in by the insanely fast early pace and simply caved. The Belmont will be an entirely different race. There is absolutely no one to run with Balto Star, who can lope around the track five or six lengths in front of his rivals while setting a slow pace. "If this horse gets away with soft early fractions then he can carry his speed further than people think," trainer Todd Pletcher said. "It all comes down to pace. If he lays down legitimate fractions, that gives us a chance." Don't forget how good Balto Star was when winning the Spiral and the Arkansas Derby. Or that he gets a major rider switch to the savvy Chris McCarron. It's hard to imagine a son of Glitterman winning at a mile and a half, but this is a quality horse who will have the biggest advantage there is in racing, he'll be loose on the lead. A P Valentine will have to improve off his good effort in the Preakness, where he finished second, but there's every chance that he will. The horse was having a miserable spring until he finally showed some life in the Preakness. It could be that only now has he come around and is ready to run back to the good form he showed as a 2-year-old. Trainer Nick Zito has had a lot of hard luck in the Belmont, finishing second four times. Maybe he's due for a little better luck. We wouldn't be shocked if Monarchos won, but aren't that excited about his chances. Unlike Point Given's Derby, there are no obvious excuses for his poor showing at the Preakness. Trainer John Ward Jr. has said that the horse didn't like the racetrack, falling back on the oldest, worst excuse in the book. And he hasn't exactly been bubbling over with confidence this week, constantly warning observers that the Triple Crown grind may have caught up with both his horse and Point Given. "To my eye, he's starting to show the type of degradation that comes from really hard exercise," Ward said of Monarchos.  Though Ward added that he doesn't expect Monarchos to run a poor race, his cautionary words have to be taken into consideration. Dollar Bill is a good horse, but how good? No one really knows because he hasn't had a chance to show what he can do throughout his troubled Triple Crown campaign. He should finally get a good trip here, but that doesn't mean that he necessarily has the quality to win the Belmont. Remember, he was already a beaten horse when he ran into a jackpot in the Derby. Dr. Greenfield is an intriguing longshot. Though he looks thoroughly outclassed on paper, he's following the same pattern used by My Memoirs before he ran second in the 1992 Belmont behind A.P. Indy. Both came from the Team Valor Stable and both won the Dee Stakes in England in their Belmont prep. This is a smart outfit, but they may not have the goods in a horse that has never even run in a graded stakes race. Invisible Ink clunked up for second in the Kentucky Derby at 55-1 but benefitted from a perfect trip behind the torrid pace. That's not going to happen again. The same can be said for Thunder Blitz, who managed only to finish fourth in the Derby. He'll need to show more here. Wayne Lukas is back on the Triple Crown scene with Buckle Down Ben. As Commendable's shocking win in last year's Belmont proved, you can never underestimate Lukas, but he'll need nothing short of a miracle to get this one home.

Picks Summary: 1. Point Given  2. Balto Star  3. A P Valentine