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| Wednesday, January 24 | |||||
| Season in review: Chicago Cubs Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Chicago Cubs did in the 2000 season
relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 820 764 Runs allowed 865 904 Run Margin -45 -140 Wins 77 65 Pythagorean wins 77 67 Placement 5th 6thIn all areas, the 2000 Cubs failed to meet even the low expectations that their talent engendered. Their offense was far less productive than expected, and their pitching was even worse than the poor performance one could have anticipated. The 2000 season turned out to be a rare tough year to hit in Wrigley Field, but the Cubs were a below-par offensive team on the road as well. The Chicago offense was stuffed with high-profile players who showed weaknesses nearly as significant as their strengths. Only Sammy Sosa excelled both in power and on-base ability, and even he engendered a ton of criticism because of his contract negotiation machinations and all-too-frequent mental mistakes. Chicago pitchers allowed more home runs and had a worse ERA than any NL club but Houston -- despite playing in a park that was, atypically, very hard in which to score runs. Key position players At several critical spots (catcher, first base, third base, left field, center field) Chicago rated well below average in productivity. In fact, only in right field and shortstop, where Ricky Gutierrez hit unexpectedly well, could the Cubs have been considered to even be league average. The players who got on base, like Eric Young and Mark Grace, either didn't do it well enough to rise above the pack or else had few other skills. The power hitters, such as Henry Rodriguez, Damon Buford, and the committee of has-beens and never-weres who manned third base, didn't have high on-base percentages and clogged up the basepaths. Some players, such as Joe Girardi, had acceptable batting averages that concealed a lack of any other offensive skills. Manager Don Baylor had his players lay down more sacrifice bunts than any other NL team. These one-run strategies didn't really suit the club's talent or ballpark, but what could he do? The club didn't get on base enough, hit for enough power, or make good enough contact. Cubs fans were treated to the painful sight of a Wrigley Field ballclub scratching and clawing to score three runs a contest. Joe Girardi, c, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 187 48 10 2 2 22 24 1 12 0 25 2 1 .257 .303 .364 .667 19 Prorated ChN 369 95 20 4 4 43 47 2 24 0 49 4 2 .257 .303 .364 .667 37 Actual ChN 363 101 15 1 6 47 40 3 32 3 61 1 0 .278 .339 .375 .714 46Due to a good defensive reputation and a dearth of other candidates, Girardi served as the Cubs' everyday catcher in 2000. Despite dropping to a sad .202 against LHP (in 114 at-bats), Girardi did about as well as could have been expected overall. However he sagged in the second half after a beaning and, even while hitting .278, provided little offense. Defensively, he continues to throw reasonably well and can lead a pitching staff. While his days as an everyday catcher are almost certainly over --Todd Hundley's attitude and shoulder being the X factor here -- Girardi can hang around as long as he wants because of his attitude, knowledge, and hustle. Jeff Reed, c, age 37 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 350 89 20 1 9 46 44 3 55 3 80 1 1 .254 .358 .394 .752 52 Prorated ChN 235 60 13 1 6 31 30 2 37 2 54 1 1 .254 .358 .394 .752 35 Actual ChN 229 49 10 0 4 26 25 1 44 2 68 0 1 .214 .342 .310 .652 27Following a surprisingly good 1999 campaign, Reed re-upped with the Cubs -- and fell on his face. His bat appeared to crumble overnight, and he didn't play well enough behind the dish to make up for it. The only thing the former No. 1 draft pick can do anymore at the plate is draw walks, and his lack of speed means that he just clogs the bases. Reed will be in camp with the Astros this year. Mike Mahoney, c, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ChN 7 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 .286 .444 .429 .873 2Mahoney is a veteran catch-and-throw guy from the Atlanta organization who got a surprise chance at big-league action in 2000. There are plenty of guys at Triple-A with his skills, meaning that this could have been Mahoney's only chance at real meal money. Mark Grace, 1b, age 36 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 575 169 36 3 15 93 83 2 80 4 51 2 3 .294 .377 .445 .823 99 Prorated ChN 537 158 34 3 14 87 78 2 75 4 48 2 3 .294 .377 .445 .823 92 Actual ChN 510 143 41 1 11 75 82 6 95 11 28 1 2 .280 .394 .429 .824 95In his final season wearing Cubs pinstripes, Grace did some things right and some things not so well. On the positive side: excellent overall hitting skills, a career-high 95 walks (compared to a measly 28 strikeouts), 41 doubles, and a .394 on-base percentage. The popular Grace also fielded well at first although he is no longer as quick around the bag as he once was. On the negative side: a lack of speed -- not a new thing for him -- and, far more seriously, a lack of punch. Grace hit just three homers at Wrigley Field all season, and Cubs first basemen produced fewer home runs (15) than any others in the NL. Grace has signed for two years with Arizona, where he has a better chance to get a World Series ring before retiring, as the Cubs move to the future, where Hee Seop Choi awaits. Once he reaches the majors, which may happen later in 2001, Choi is a good bet to hit more than 15 homers per season. Dave Martinez, 1b/of, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 143 40 6 1 3 21 16 1 16 1 21 3 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 21 Actual Tam 104 27 4 2 1 12 12 0 10 1 17 1 4 .260 .319 .365 .684 12 Prorated ChN 49 14 2 0 1 7 5 0 5 0 7 1 1 .280 .354 .399 .753 7 Actual ChN 54 10 1 1 0 5 1 0 2 0 8 1 0 .185 .214 .241 .455 3 Prorated Tex 118 33 5 1 2 17 13 1 13 1 17 2 2 .280 .354 .399 .753 17 Actual Tex 119 32 4 1 2 14 12 1 14 2 20 2 1 .269 .351 .370 .720 14 Prorated Tor 181 51 8 1 4 27 20 1 20 1 27 4 3 .280 .354 .399 .753 26 Actual Tor 180 56 10 1 2 29 22 1 24 0 28 4 2 .311 .393 .411 .804 31 Prorated Tot 450 126 19 3 9 66 50 3 50 3 66 9 6 .280 .354 .399 .753 66 Actual Tot 457 125 19 5 5 60 47 2 50 3 73 8 7 .274 .346 .370 .716 58Peripatetic was the word for Martinez in 2000. He began the season in Tampa Bay, was dealt in May to the Cubs, then went to Texas in June and Toronto in August. Despite playing very poorly in Chicago, he fashioned another solid overall season. Of course, there is no reason for a .280-hitting 35-year-old with little power or speed to get 450 at-bats, but that says more about the Rays, the Cubs, and the Rangers than it does about Martinez. Martinez is a valuable player if used correctly: he hangs in against lefties, will draw an occasional walk, and doesn't embarrass his club in the field or at bat. Julio Zuleta, 1b/lf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 68 18 4 0 3 9 12 2 4 1 14 0 0 .265 .320 .456 .776 10 Prorated ChN 66 18 4 0 3 9 12 2 4 1 14 0 0 .265 .320 .456 .776 10 Actual ChN 68 20 8 0 3 13 12 3 2 0 19 0 1 .294 .342 .544 .887 12A big, strong guy, Zuleta has been talked up by the Cubs due to his raw power. The organization was so desperate for him to break through last year that he even ended up playing some left field, and Zuleta isn't mobile even at first base. That's what happens with bad teams like the Cubs -- players like Zuleta end up filling roles they are totally unsuited for. Zuleta may end up playing some first base this year in a platoon situation along with Matt Stairs or Todd Hundley, but his inability to work the strike zone will keep him from ever fully taking advantage of his raw power. Eric Young, 2b, age 33 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 623 172 32 4 9 106 63 7 78 0 50 52 20 .276 .360 .384 .744 92 Prorated ChN 595 164 31 4 9 101 60 7 75 0 48 50 19 .276 .360 .384 .744 88 Actual ChN 607 180 40 2 6 98 47 8 63 1 39 54 7 .297 .367 .399 .766 99Despite a high profile and some very visible skills, Young is just an average player. He gets on base, but not enough to be a star leadoff hitter. He steals a lot of bases and hits doubles, but doesn't really have much power. Defensively, he works hard but is poor on the double play and has below-par hands. There were plenty of reasons why Chicago lost 97 games last year; one was that even their top players, such as Mark Grace, Sammy Sosa, and Young, have serious negatives that detract from their positives. On a team with more productive hitters at first base, third base, and behind the plate, Young's problems wouldn't be as serious. With the Cubs in 2000, his shortcomings just couldn't be hidden. Shane Andrews, 3b, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 523 121 24 0 30 64 81 1 68 3 145 2 2 .231 .317 .449 .767 75 Prorated ChN 194 45 9 0 11 24 30 0 25 1 54 1 1 .231 .317 .449 .767 28 Actual ChN 192 44 5 0 14 25 39 2 27 1 59 1 1 .229 .329 .474 .803 28Like cornermate Willie Greene, Andrews had a chance to salvage his sunken career on the North Side of Chicago, but he couldn't manage to do it. Injuries damaged Andrews' chances -- a back bad has severely reduced his mobility in the field and taken some of the sting from his swing. Whatever the reason for his prolonged struggles, Andrews is in deep trouble. His power is genuine, but it's his only tool; he is slow, has poor command of the strike zone, and is prone to injury. For 2001, Andrews will go to spring training with St. Louis in an attempt to win a bench role. Willie Greene, 3b, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 66 16 3 0 3 9 11 0 9 0 15 0 0 .242 .333 .424 .758 10 Prorated ChN 298 72 14 0 14 41 50 0 41 0 68 0 0 .242 .333 .424 .758 44 Actual ChN 299 60 15 2 10 34 37 2 36 2 69 4 0 .201 .289 .365 .654 33Greene is running out of chances even though he hasn't even broken 30. He had all the opportunity in the world to win a regular job with Chicago in 2000, but he came to camp out of shape, and a spring training hand injury disabled him early on. Once he saw action, Greene started well, but after batting .263 with five homers in May, he just collapsed. Greene batted below .200 in three of the remaining four months. He was 1-for-14 as a pinch-hitter. It would be a desperate team that gave him 300 at-bats in 2001, and with the Cubs not interested, Greene is running low on desperate teams. Jeff Huson, 3b/2b/ss, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 129 32 4 0 1 12 11 0 9 0 17 3 1 .248 .295 .302 .597 11 Prorated ChN 134 33 4 0 1 12 11 0 9 0 18 3 1 .248 .295 .302 .597 12 Actual ChN 130 28 7 1 0 19 11 0 13 1 9 2 1 .215 .287 .285 .571 10Huson has retired following a good career as a hard-working, intelligent utility player. Cole Liniak, 3b, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 69 16 4 0 2 9 7 0 6 0 11 0 0 .232 .293 .377 .670 7 Prorated ChN 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .232 .293 .377 .670 0 Actual ChN 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0Baylor never warmed up to Liniak, who spent almost the entire season at Triple-A without impressing anyone. Liniak is very slow and won't hit for high average, but has line-drive power and the ability to play third base, second, and shortstop in a pinch. Liniak is still young enough to have a career, but he didn't help himself in 2000. After the season, he was traded to Toronto for a player to be named. Chad Meyers, 3b/2b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 67 17 4 0 0 11 5 1 7 0 10 4 2 .254 .333 .313 .647 7 Prorated ChN 51 13 3 0 0 8 4 1 5 0 8 3 2 .254 .333 .313 .647 6 Actual ChN 52 9 2 0 0 8 5 1 3 0 11 1 0 .173 .228 .212 .440 3Speed is Meyers' best tool. That, and his versatility -- he can play second base, third base, and the outfield -- will have to be enough if he is to land a job in the majors. The best that Meyers can hope for is a utility role, because even in the minors he showed no punch, and he won't get enough at-bats in the majors to prove that he can hit for average. Meyers is heady and works hard, which put him over the hump in a battle with others for a bench job. Jose Nieves, 3b/ss/2b, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 104 25 5 1 2 12 12 1 5 0 15 2 2 .240 .279 .365 .645 10 Prorated ChN 198 48 10 2 4 23 23 2 10 0 29 4 4 .240 .279 .365 .645 19 Actual ChN 198 42 6 3 5 17 24 0 11 1 43 1 1 .212 .251 .348 .600 15 Nieves is a shortstop with a strong arm and good hands. Offensively, he has little to offer besides a bit of pull power. He decided to attack fastballs early in the count in 2000, a tendency which upped his extra-base numbers but dropped his average and on-base percentage to unacceptable levels. As a backup shortstop/third baseman, Nieves is valuable. However, he is not and will never be a quality regular because he just can't produce enough offense. Ricky Gutierrez, ss, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 523 136 19 3 5 66 54 5 66 6 84 7 8 .260 .346 .337 .682 60 Prorated ChN 470 122 17 3 4 59 49 4 59 5 76 6 7 .260 .346 .337 .682 54 Actual ChN 449 124 19 2 11 73 56 7 66 0 58 8 2 .276 .375 .401 .775 73Signed from Houston as a free agent, Gutierrez enjoyed a surprisingly good season -- especially good given his average across-the-board skills. He set career highs in most offensive categories, and unlike many of his teammates, hit well in Wrigley Field. When Gutierrez went to the disabled list on May 25 (batting .315 at the time) with a separated shoulder, the air simply went out of the Cubs' season. The team deteriorated while he was out of action, and when Gutierrez returned, he wasn't the same player. In the field he made the average plays and sometimes the tough ones, doing his best to turn the double play despite a poor keystone partner in Eric Young. Showing he could co-exist with his manager's predeliction for questionably effective one-run skills, Gutierrez also led the NL with 16 sacrifices. Augie Ojeda, ss, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ChN 77 17 3 1 2 10 8 0 10 1 9 0 1 .221 .307 .364 .670 9Ojeda, just 5' 8", is a sparkplug with some skills. Despite his size, he is a quality shortstop with range. He will take walks and can bunt, and even showed surprising power. While he is not likely to hit for enough average to win a regular job, far worse players in the majors are making far more money. Of the several players who filled in at short during Gutierrez' injury last year, Ojeda was the most impressive. Henry Rodriguez, lf, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 378 103 21 1 22 54 70 1 46 5 98 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 68 Prorated ChN 254 69 14 1 15 36 47 1 31 3 66 1 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 46 Actual ChN 259 65 15 1 18 37 51 3 22 2 76 1 2 .251 .314 .525 .839 42 Prorated Flo 109 30 6 0 6 16 20 0 13 1 28 0 1 .272 .351 .508 .859 20 Actual Flo 108 29 6 0 2 10 10 1 14 0 23 0 0 .269 .358 .380 .737 16 Prorated Tot 363 99 20 1 21 52 67 1 44 5 94 1 2 .272 .351 .508 .859 65 Actual Tot 367 94 21 1 20 47 61 4 36 2 99 1 2 .256 .327 .482 .809 59Rodriguez showed his streakiness in 2000 for the Cubs, enduring a terrible start before coming alive as the summer began. Dealt to Florida on July 31, he gave the Marlins very little production. Unsigned as of January 2001, Rodriguez is now at best a platoon outfielder/first baseman/DH. He is nearly unplayable in the outfield and is a slow and poor runner. But his one skill is significant: against certain pitchers, Rodriguez shows tremendous power both to right and left fields. Glenallen Hill, lf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 193 57 10 1 12 31 34 1 16 1 42 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 35 Prorated ChN 162 48 8 1 10 26 29 1 13 1 35 2 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 30 Actual ChN 168 44 4 1 11 23 29 0 10 2 43 0 1 .262 .303 .494 .797 23 Prorated NYA 130 38 7 1 8 21 23 1 11 1 28 1 1 .295 .349 .544 .893 24 Actual NYA 132 44 5 0 16 22 29 1 9 0 33 0 0 .333 .378 .735 1.112 37 Prorated Tot 292 86 15 2 18 47 51 2 24 2 64 3 2 .295 .349 .544 .893 53 Actual Tot 300 88 9 1 27 45 58 1 19 2 76 0 1 .293 .336 .600 .936 58What Hill can still do is hit for power -- tremendous, game-breaking power. And that's about all. Luckily, that's enough for him to have a role. In fact, Hill will have a place in the majors until his bat slows down enough to make his other (fading) skills intolerable. It's hard to imagine that Hill once patrolled center field for the Cubs; while he still has a fairly good arm, his range is well below average and his once-excellent speed has diminished dramatically. He likes to hit and doesn't like doing anything else nearly as well, making it hard to think of a better candidate for DH-hood than Hill. In that role, he can do everything the job requires, and what he can't do, he won't need to. Rondell White, lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 585 173 29 6 24 89 79 11 42 2 94 14 7 .296 .351 .489 .840 98 Prorated Mon 293 87 15 3 12 45 40 6 21 1 47 7 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 49 Actual Mon 290 89 24 0 11 52 54 2 28 0 67 5 1 .307 .370 .503 .873 56 Prorated ChN 67 20 3 1 3 10 9 1 5 0 11 2 1 .296 .351 .489 .840 11 Actual ChN 67 22 2 0 2 7 7 2 5 0 12 0 2 .328 .392 .448 .840 12 Prorated Tot 360 107 18 4 15 55 49 7 26 1 58 9 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 60 Actual Tot 357 111 26 0 13 59 61 4 33 0 79 5 3 .311 .374 .493 .867 67The Cubs should have known better. Of course, if they knew better, they wouldn't be the Cubs. White is injury-prone, and this tendency continued in 2000. The Cubs traded for White on July 31, while he was disabled with a hamstring problem. Less than a month after the deal, he was shelved again, this time for the rest of the year after suffering a dislocated shoulder on a steal attempt. When he is able to play, White is a quality hitter with some punch whose swing appears tailor-made for Wrigley Field. Defensively, he has plus range in left field and is really not suited for center field anymore as knee and hamstring problems have decreased his range and speed His five trips to the disabled list in the last three years are certainly a warning about his future. Tarrik Brock, lf/cf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 67 13 3 0 1 10 6 0 8 0 18 2 1 .194 .280 .284 .564 6 Prorated ChN 14 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 .194 .280 .284 .564 1 Actual ChN 12 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 4 1 1 .167 .375 .167 .542 1Brock began the season on the Cubs' roster as a spare outfielder, but didn't last. If speed were gold, he'd be rich. However, the old baseball adage remains true, and Brock can't steal first. He's going to camp with the Dodgers in 2001. Brant Brown, of, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 108 26 5 1 4 16 16 1 9 1 29 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 14 Prorated Flo 69 17 3 1 3 10 10 1 6 1 19 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 9 Actual Flo 73 14 6 0 2 4 6 0 3 0 33 1 0 .192 .224 .356 .580 6 Prorated ChN 93 22 4 1 3 14 14 1 8 1 25 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 12 Actual ChN 89 14 1 0 3 7 10 1 10 0 29 2 1 .157 .248 .270 .517 6 Prorated Tot 162 39 7 1 6 24 24 1 13 1 43 1 1 .241 .303 .417 .719 21 Actual Tot 162 28 7 0 5 11 16 1 13 0 62 3 1 .173 .237 .309 .546 12Brown may have been the worst player in the major leagues last season. Continuing a slide that began when pitchers figured out that he could hit a fastball but nothing else, Brown has lost his power and his ability to hit for average. He could not adjust last year and the more he played, the worse he performed: 62 strikeouts in 162 at-bats ought to be enough indication that Brown's career is in serious trouble. He has signed with Milwaukee for 2001, which seems utterly appropriate. Roosevelt Brown, of, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 477 135 38 2 23 64 94 4 31 2 88 7 3 .283 .329 .516 .845 78 Prorated ChN 90 25 7 0 4 12 18 1 6 0 17 1 1 .283 .329 .516 .845 15 Actual ChN 91 32 8 0 3 11 14 1 4 0 22 0 1 .352 .378 .538 .916 19Brown is a frustrating mix of talent and shortcomings. Given regular playing time in September with Rondell White out of action, Brown batted .390 with 11 RBI -- this after a mediocre performance at Triple-A. He has a natural left-hander's swing and average defensive tools, but his low walk totals give plenty of cause for alarm. His lack of selectivity at the plate will only hurt him in the future as pitchers adjust. The Cubs seem to realize this: at no point does he ever enter into management's discussions about regular outfielders for 2001. Brown didn't get much of a chance in 2000 because the Cubs had a logjam in the outfield early in the season; however, Brown should stick as a left-handed reserve if he can make better contact or improve his defense slightly. Ross Gload, lf/1b, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ChN 31 6 0 1 1 4 3 0 3 0 10 0 0 .194 .257 .355 .612 3Gload came to the Cubs in a July 31 deal that sent Henry Rodriguez to the Marlins. At Iowa, Gload hit .404 in 28 games with 14 home runs, earning a promotion to Chicago. Unfortunately, Gload was clearly over his head when he reached the majors and didn't do anything well, though he remains on the 40-man roster. A converted first baseman, Gload lacks speed and range in the outfield and will have to hit his way back. Nobody is counting on him as a regular for 2001. Raul Gonzalez, lf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 69 18 4 0 2 10 11 0 5 0 9 1 0 .261 .307 .406 .712 8 Prorated ChN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .261 .307 .406 .712 0 Actual ChN 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0After spending five straight full seasons at Double-A, Gonzalez signed with the Cubs in 2000 and advanced to Triple-A before earning a small latte in Chicago. Taken off the 40-man roster immediately after his demotion, Gonzalez' status isn't even good enough for him to be an afterthought. Gary Matthews Jr., lf/cf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 65 13 2 0 1 8 8 1 9 0 14 2 0 .200 .307 .277 .584 6 Prorated ChN 152 30 5 0 2 19 19 2 21 0 33 5 0 .200 .307 .277 .584 14 Actual ChN 158 30 1 2 4 24 14 1 15 1 28 3 0 .190 .264 .297 .562 13The Cubs loved Matthews' defense, both in left and center field, and were very enamored of his hustle and attitude. Unfortunately, that couldn't make up for his poor hitting. On a team that has a fourth outfielder who can hit, Matthews might be an affordable luxury as a No. 5; he is a prime defensive replacement/double switch/pinch-runner type. However, as anyone could have seen from looking at his numbers at Triple-A Las Vegas in 1999, he can't hit well and most likely never will. Damon Buford, cf, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 164 40 8 1 5 24 23 1 14 0 36 5 2 .244 .306 .396 .702 20 Prorated ChN 504 123 25 3 15 74 71 3 43 0 111 15 6 .244 .306 .396 .702 62 Actual ChN 495 124 18 3 15 64 48 8 47 3 118 4 6 .251 .324 .390 .714 62It was a mixed year for Buford: good early, bad late. While Buford did show surprising pop, especially early in the season, he faded dramatically as the year progressed, batting just .207 with one home run in the last two months. After NL pitchers figured out that Buford would chase pitches out of the strike zone, he didn't get a lot of fastballs to hit -- thus rendering his power far less relevant. Cubs hitting coach Jeff Pentland tried to help Buford be more patient at the plate in 2000, but the advice didn't take. However, in center field, Buford did the job adequately: he has good instincts and moves well into both power alleys. Unfortunately, his speed doesn't help him on the bases, because he has poor on-base skills. And what good are raw power and speed if you can't really use them? Corey Patterson, cf, age 20 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ChN 42 7 1 0 2 9 2 1 3 0 14 1 1 .167 .239 .333 .572 3The Cubs and most people in baseball believe that Patterson, a five-tool talent, will be a star in the majors. But it won't happen unless he learns to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone. Following his first hit in the majors, a mammoth home run in Milwaukee on September 19, he barely saw another fastball. The Cubs probably shouldn't bring him north from Arizona in 2001, as he really could use another 400 at-bats in the high minors in order to learn how to gauge the off-speed and breaking pitches that veteran hurlers use to nail young hitters like Patterson. Sammy Sosa, rf, age 31 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 600 172 22 1 56 109 131 2 71 9 157 11 8 .287 .362 .607 .969 126 Prorated ChN 625 179 23 1 58 114 136 2 74 9 163 11 8 .287 .362 .607 .969 131 Actual ChN 604 193 38 1 50 106 138 2 91 19 168 7 4 .320 .406 .634 1.040 157What history may not remember about Sammy Sosa in 2000 is that almost everyone connected with the team would have been happy to see him traded in July, if only to end the constant bickering about his contract. The bickering and negotiations didn't stop in the off-season, either. While his financial requests may seem excessive for someone past his physical prime, this much can be said: Sosa has been one of the premier home run hitters in baseball for the past three years, of course, but the surprise was that he truly improved his approach at the plate in 2000. Waiting patiently on pitches plus a newfound willingness to go the other way have made him a far more effective offensive performer even if his long-ball output dropped somewhat. In the field, though, his throwing arm has declined and he no longer runs often or effectively. Key pitchers Injuries and veteran ineffectiveness destroyed the team's pitching staff in 2000. Physical problems affecting starters Kerry Wood, Kevin Tapani, and Ismael Valdes forced the Cubs to improvise with not-ready youngsters like Ruben Quevedo, Jamie Arnold, Daniel Garibay, and others. Jon Lieber was also forced to assume a greater role than his talent would allow. The bullpen, expected to be at least average, was instead a nightmare. Veteran Rick Aguilera showed convincingly that he was no longer a closer, while veteran middle relievers Mark Guthrie, Felix Heredia, and Brian Williams were unproductive. By the end of the season, more veterans were brought in, with a few (Todd Van Poppel and Tim Worrell) pitching well enough to help. Young Kyle Farnsworth, asked to assume short relief duties, pitched badly enough to damage his career. Jon Lieber, starter, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.30 32 32 11 11 0 199 210 27 47 166 .272 .743 Prorated ChN 4.30 40 40 14 14 0 250 264 34 59 209 .272 .743 Actual ChN 4.41 35 35 12 11 0 251 248 36 54 192 .257 .725While he doesn't really have the stuff to be a No. 1 starter for a contending team, Lieber is talented and does nothing to embarrass the Cubs. The durable and strong right-hander has shed the "five-inning pitcher" label that he picked up while in Pittsburgh, leading the NL in innings and setting a career high in victories. However, as usual, Lieber (not a great physical specimen) faded badly down the stretch in 2000 (7.05 ERA in August, 5.88 in September). A sinker/slider pitcher, Lieber is still working, with only sporadic success, on adding an off-speed delivery to help him against lefties. He benefited from the surprisingly tough hitting conditions last year at Wrigley Field, notching a 3.71 ERA at home, but was pounded for a career-worst 36 home runs, third most in the league -- most of them on hanging sliders. There is little reason to suspect that he will make any big positive or negative turns in his career in his early thirties. Kevin Tapani, starter, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.84 32 32 10 12 0 193 213 25 57 114 .281 .790 Prorated ChN 4.84 32 32 10 12 0 193 212 25 57 114 .281 .790 Actual ChN 5.01 30 30 8 12 0 196 208 35 47 150 .271 .779Back problems and a bad knee (which required season-ending surgery in September) hampered Tapani's effectiveness in 2000. He gamely went out and did his best, but his follow-through and power were affected by his injuries and his pitches didn't move much. For a pitcher whose best offerings are a split-finger fastball and a change-up, that is disastrous news. After a rocky early part of the season, Tapani pitched well in June and July, but then the knee went bad and he crashed in August. Tapani was as stingy with the walk as always and did strike out more hitters than he had since 1996, indicating that he's not completely finished. And his ERA (like that of Jon Lieber) was far better at home than on the road. However, the Cubs must realize that at his age, and coming off back-to-back injury seasons, Tapani is a third starter at best. Ismael Valdes, starter, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.44 32 32 10 13 0 209 217 28 70 151 .268 .760 Prorated ChN 4.44 10 10 3 4 0 68 70 9 23 49 .268 .760 Actual ChN 5.37 12 12 2 4 0 67 71 17 27 45 .273 .855 Prorated LA 4.44 6 6 2 3 0 42 43 6 14 30 .268 .760 Actual LA 6.08 9 8 0 3 0 40 53 5 13 29 .327 .895 Prorated Tot 4.44 17 17 5 7 0 109 114 15 37 79 .268 .760 Actual Tot 5.64 21 20 2 7 0 107 124 22 40 74 .294 .870Valdes didn't win any points in the clubhouse with the 2000 Cubs, and only won two games on the field. The decline of the talented right-hander was one of the major disappointments of Chicago's season. He reported for camp out of shape after getting married the previous winter, he sat out with the same type of blisters that he pitched with in the past; he complained during his entire tenure in Chicago about everything from the weather to the dimensions of the park even though he pitched well in home games. When the Cubs dumped him on Los Angeles in late July, nobody was sorry to see him go. Valdes still has outstanding mechanics and good raw stuff, but he didn't pitch well for the Dodgers either down the stretch. He was signed by Anaheim for 2001, where an improvement in conditioning should help Valdes get back to where he was two years ago. However, an improvement in his command as well as his attitude is also necessary for him to return to being a top pitcher. Kyle Farnsworth, starter/reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 5.60 32 32 8 14 0 188 211 38 73 119 .284 .841 Prorated ChN 5.60 14 14 4 6 0 84 94 17 33 53 .284 .841 Actual ChN 6.43 46 5 2 9 1 77 90 14 50 74 .291 .868Farnsworth moved to the bullpen early in the 2000 campaign. Bounced from the rotation after pitching badly in April, he was horrible in relief before a merciful demotion to Triple-A in May. Farnsworth was only mediocre at Iowa before being recalled to Chicago, but on his return he pitched better than previously. Oddly for a right-handed fastball pitcher (his heat reaches 97 with regularity), Farnsworth was more effective against left-handed batters. Even with his late-season improvement, however, Farnsworth can't be counted on until he shows that he can handle the pressure of late-inning relief. While he has the classic power reliever arsenal (fastball and slider), Farnsworth suffered when the Cubs forgot that the major leagues are not a laboratory. It was foolish of the team to expect him to convert from starting, where he had spent the last four seasons, to a late-inning relief literally overnight. The jury is out as to his future, but Farnsworth's stuff is so good that he will be given plenty of chances. Kerry Wood, starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 3.22 27 27 12 7 0 162 120 15 98 214 .207 .664 Prorated ChN 3.22 23 23 10 6 0 139 103 13 84 184 .207 .664 Actual ChN 4.80 23 23 8 7 0 137 112 17 87 132 .226 .737Wood returned from career-threatening elbow surgery after not having pitched in a year, so the Cubs cautiously limited the number of curves and sliders he threw. Deprived of the hard curve that helped make him a star in 1998, Wood had to rely more on his fastball and a newly-developed change-up; this and the long layoff meant that Wood was nowhere near his top form. On the positive side, he didn't re-injure himself, and his fastball returned almost to his pre-injury 98-mph level. Wood was overpowering even when he didn't pitch his best -- check the opponents' batting average. Control is still the biggest problem facing Kerry the K, which is unsurprising, as the elbow is the part of the arm that most affects a pitcher's command. It is impossible to predict what will happen to Wood in the long term, but if he's healthy, he should improve in 2001. Scott Downs, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 3 8 17 .279 .807 Prorated ChN 5.60 16 16 5 5 0 96 104 16 44 93 .279 .807 Actual ChN 5.17 18 18 4 3 0 94 117 13 37 63 .310 .894 Prorated Mon 5.60 1 1 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 3 .279 .807 Actual Mon 9.00 1 1 0 0 0 3 5 0 3 0 .385 .885 Prorated Tot 5.60 17 17 6 6 0 100 108 17 45 96 .279 .807 Actual Tot 5.29 19 19 4 3 0 97 122 13 40 63 .312 .894 Downs had some fine starts for Chicago before being traded to Montreal for Rondell White. Unfortunately, he sprained his pitching elbow in his first game with the Expos. Downs is a control pitcher who relies on his curve and change-up to win. Therefore, the health of his elbow will be of critical importance. If he makes a small improvement in control, he could make a big leap, as he is young enough and skilled enough to do so. The Expos believe that he will be ready to pitch in spring training. Andrew Lorraine, starter/reliever, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 6.35 4 4 1 2 0 23 28 4 9 15 .304 .880 Prorated ChN 6.35 6 6 1 3 0 32 40 6 13 21 .304 .880 Actual ChN 6.47 8 5 1 2 0 32 36 5 18 25 .286 .838 Prorated Cle 6.35 2 2 0 1 0 9 11 2 4 6 .304 .880 Actual Cle 3.86 10 0 0 0 0 9 8 1 5 5 .222 .762 Prorated Tot 6.35 7 7 2 4 0 41 51 7 16 27 .304 .880 Actual Tot 5.88 18 5 1 2 0 41 44 6 23 30 .272 .821The former Angels' first-round pick is now a Triple-A pitcher who gets emergency call-ups to the majors. A pure finesse hurler, he doesn't have enough talent to stick for long and was just one of the record 31 pitchers the Indians utilized last season. He's now a free agent. Joey Nation, starter, age 21 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual ChN 6.94 2 2 0 2 0 12 12 2 8 8 .279 .873Two late-season starts gave the Cubs the idea that Nation has some big-league stuff. Whiffing 166 at Double-A West Tenn, he struck out more batters than anyone else in the Cubs' system. However, 2000 was just his fourth pro season and his first above Class A, so he won't be asked to shoulder a big load in the majors very soon. Phil Norton, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 7.71 3 3 0 2 0 16 22 4 8 13 .328 1.000 Prorated ChN 7.71 2 2 0 1 0 10 13 2 5 8 .328 1.000 Actual ChN 9.35 2 2 0 1 0 9 14 5 7 6 .350 1.197When the Cubs were needy for starting pitching in August, they used Norton, a lefty who came up in the organization. He didn't pitch well enough to stick around and was outrighted back to Triple-A almost immediately. Norton has ordinary pitches and his control is not sharp: he walked 104 at Iowa last summer. Ruben Quevedo, starter/reliever, age 21 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 6.88 3 3 1 2 0 17 20 5 8 16 .294 .922 Prorated ChN 6.88 16 16 5 11 0 91 107 27 43 86 .294 .922 Actual ChN 7.47 21 15 3 10 0 88 96 21 54 65 .271 .884The bigger-than-listed lefty, acquired from the Braves in late 1999, had a few good outings for Chicago but is plainly not ready to pitch in the majors. Given his age, this shouldn't have been a surprise; he skipped Double-A entirely, which looks like a mistake. A lack of sharpness in his control really killed the big man in Chicago. When Quevedo fell behind and tried to take a few mph off his pitches to get a strike over, he was creamed. Nobody can survive allowing two homers a game, and the more Quevedo went out there last year, the more he struggled. It would be a terrible shame if Quevedo, who possesses above-par stuff, can't get it together after having been rushed at such an early age. Jamie Arnold, reliever / spot starter, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 5.69 30 0 2 3 0 49 60 6 26 23 .309 .866 Prorated LA 5.69 4 0 0 0 0 7 8 1 3 3 .309 .866 Actual LA 4.05 2 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 5 3 .174 .551 Prorated ChN 5.69 20 0 1 2 0 33 40 4 17 15 .309 .866 Actual ChN 6.61 12 4 0 3 1 33 34 1 19 13 .274 .715 Prorated Tot 5.69 24 0 2 2 0 39 48 5 21 19 .309 .866 Actual Tot 6.18 14 4 0 3 1 39 38 1 24 16 .259 .688Arnold washed out with the Dodgers before coming to the Cubs in the Ismael Valdes trade. He didn't help the Cubs as a starter, but he did pitch better in relief (especially in September). While command low in the strike zone was a serious problem, Arnold did keep the ball down, allowing just one home run. Nevertheless, Arnold is a marginal pitcher and there is no reason to expect that he will ever be successful, though there are a lot of marginal teams out there. Micah Bowie, reliever/starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 5.95 21 4 2 4 0 56 66 9 26 53 .293 .845Bowie, short on stuff and too short on location to compensate, bombed as a starter for the Cubs in 1999 and sank all the way back to Double-A in 2000. He pitched well enough there to save his career, at least for the moment, but there is little reason to expect to see him in Wrigley Field for anything more than an emergency. Daniel Garibay, reliever/starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual ChN 6.03 30 8 2 8 0 75 88 9 39 46 .299 .856Garibay worked both as a starter and reliever for Chicago, but did neither particularly well. He was 0-5 in eight starts with a 6.23 ERA and not much better out of the pen. Control is, and has always been, his bugaboo; Garibay's stuff is better than that of most left-handers who populate the middle-relief ghetto. Mark Guthrie, reliever, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 76 12 31 55 .271 .813 Prorated ChN 4.60 14 0 1 1 0 19 20 3 8 14 .271 .813 Actual ChN 4.82 19 0 2 3 0 19 17 1 10 17 .258 .698 Prorated Tam 4.60 24 0 1 2 0 33 35 5 14 25 .271 .813 Actual Tam 4.50 34 0 1 1 0 32 33 4 18 26 .262 .743 Prorated Tor 4.60 15 0 1 1 0 20 21 3 9 15 .271 .813 Actual Tor 4.79 23 0 0 2 0 21 20 3 9 20 .263 .740 Prorated Tot 4.60 53 0 3 4 0 72 75 12 31 54 .271 .813 Actual Tot 4.67 76 0 3 6 0 71 70 8 37 63 .261 .731The Cubs had hopes for Guthrie, but the veteran southpaw didn't distinguish himself and was traded to Tampa Bay in May for outfielder Dave Martinez in the kind of body-shuffling deal that usually does little to help either team. Guthrie still has some utility and, in fact, was signed in the off-season by Oakland, which apparently has plans to convert him to the rotation for 2001 (Guthrie started 41 times in 1989-91). Felix Heredia, reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 3.91 70 0 4 4 1 71 69 6 37 64 .255 .736 Prorated ChN 3.91 56 0 3 3 1 57 55 5 29 51 .255 .736 Actual ChN 4.76 74 0 7 3 2 59 46 6 33 52 .220 .679It seems that Heredia has been around forever, but he is still young and has time to improve, and he certainly has plenty of improving to do. His command is just terrible, and an inability to locate the ball consistently nearly drove Baylor crazy. Heredia ended up in the manager's doghouse often last year despite being the only lefty on the staff with real ability. While his crossfire motion and good stuff get lefty batters out, Heredia is not effective against righties. He has no off-speed pitch or cut fastball to use against them, and without one, he could fall permanently into the "situational lefty" category even though he would seem to have too much talent for that. It is important to recall that the Marlins really pushed Heredia; he pitched just one season (55 games, 60 innings) above Class A before being promoted to the majors in 1996 at age 20. Matt Karchner, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.09 70 0 5 5 2 95 94 14 44 67 .260 .771 Prorated ChN 4.09 13 0 1 1 0 17 17 3 8 12 .260 .771 Actual ChN 6.14 13 0 1 1 0 15 19 3 11 5 .311 1.001Leg injuries have torpedoed Karchner's career. A reasonable middle reliever/setup pitcher with a good sinking fastball when healthy, Karchner hasn't been the same since moving from the White Sox. He had three trials with the Cubs last year but didn't pitch well at any time. He was so unhappy at Triple-A Iowa, and was said to be such a negative presence around younger players, that the Cubs simply released him in early September. Oswaldo Mairena, reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual ChN 18.00 2 0 0 0 0 2 7 1 2 0 .583 1.560The Cubs acquired Mairena, a smallish lefty, from the Yankees in July. He pitched with five different clubs last year, including Chicago. Will Ohman, reliever, age 22 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual ChN 8.10 6 0 1 0 0 3 4 0 4 2 .308 .778Despite the poor totals Ohman showed in his short stint with Chicago, he has a chance to begin 2001 in the bullpen. The management loves Ohman's take-charge attitude, and he is apparently a prototypical off-the-wall left-hander. While he had a good overall season (6-4, 1.89 ERA in 59 games) at Double-A, Ohman did experience some control problems there. It is unlikely that he will figure out how to master them against big-league competition. Steve Rain, reliever, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 6.75 13 0 1 1 0 16 20 3 11 14 .313 .916 Prorated ChN 6.75 36 0 3 3 0 44 55 8 30 38 .313 .916 Actual ChN 4.35 37 0 3 4 0 50 46 10 27 54 .250 .799Rain was removed from the 40-man roster before the 2000 season, but pitched well enough at Triple-A early in the year to earn a callup to Chicago. He pitched better early than late; by season's end, he had exhausted Baylor's patience. Allowing righties, who he is supposed to get out, a .273 average and seven homers in just 110 at-bats is a good way to win an all-expense paid ticket to Des Moines. Rain has a quality split-finger pitch but didn't use it enough; he was not able to adjust when hitters caught up to his just-average fastball and won't outthink his limitations. Now a free agent. Jerry Spradlin, reliever, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776 Prorated KC 4.25 53 0 4 4 0 72 76 9 29 57 .273 .776 Actual KC 5.52 50 0 4 4 7 75 81 9 27 54 .283 .805 Prorated ChN 4.25 12 0 1 1 0 16 17 2 6 13 .273 .776 Actual ChN 8.40 8 1 0 1 0 15 20 2 5 13 .328 .869 Prorated Tot 4.25 65 0 5 5 0 88 93 11 36 70 .273 .776 Actual Tot 6.00 58 1 4 5 7 90 101 11 32 67 .291 .816Nobody questions Spradlin's raw stuff. He throws a high fastball in the mid-90s with movement. However, he constantly falls behind in the count -- his awkward motion probably contributes to that -- and pays for his bad location as opponents knock him silly. Spradlin had a golden chance to win the Royals' closer's job, but after pitching well in May (five saves, 2.30 ERA), he got increasingly terrible before Kansas City, desperate for any quality pitchers, released him August 30. He inked with the Cubs on September 8 and allowed 14 earned runs in 15 innings; after pitching for five big-league teams in the last three years, he will be lucky to find a sixth for 2001. Todd Van Poppel, reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 6.43 4 4 1 2 0 21 25 4 10 16 .298 .892 Prorated ChN 6.43 16 16 4 8 0 83 98 16 39 63 .298 .892 Actual ChN 3.75 51 2 4 5 2 86 80 10 48 77 .249 .749Signed to a Triple-A deal before 2000, Van Poppel pitched ten games at Iowa and was purchased by the Cubs in early May. He pitched well in middle and setup relief during the first half of the season (2.23 ERA), but really sank in the second half (4.86 ERA) as he suffered from the control troubles that had sabotaged most of his career. Van Poppel's role is not likely to expand beyond middle relief. Brian Williams, reliever, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.43 40 0 3 4 0 67 69 6 35 50 .268 .775 Prorated ChN 4.43 16 0 1 2 0 27 28 2 14 20 .268 .775 Actual ChN 9.62 22 0 1 1 1 24 28 4 23 14 .304 .997 Prorated Cle 4.43 11 0 1 1 0 18 19 2 9 14 .268 .775 Actual Cle 4.00 7 0 0 0 0 18 23 2 8 6 .324 .832 Prorated Tot 4.43 27 0 2 3 0 45 47 4 24 34 .268 .775 Actual Tot 7.23 29 0 1 1 1 42 51 6 31 20 .313 .927The Cubs signed the hard-throwing but wilder-than-a-March-hare Williams to a two-year deal last winter, then dumped him by the end of May. After a reasonably successful 1999 in a protected role in the Astrodome, Williams apparently fooled the Cubs into thinking he had conquered his control troubles. Instead, Williams was simply awful. He's a good bet to keep bouncing around as he has the potential to get a job, but not the ability to keep one. He recently signed a minor-league deal with the Red Sox. Tim Worrell, reliever, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bal 4.35 23 0 2 2 0 39 41 5 18 31 .270 .790 Prorated Bal 4.35 5 0 0 0 0 9 9 1 4 7 .270 .790 Actual Bal 7.36 5 0 2 2 0 7 12 3 5 5 .353 1.201 Prorated ChN 4.35 36 0 3 3 0 61 64 8 28 48 .270 .790 Actual ChN 2.47 54 0 3 4 3 62 60 7 24 52 .252 .721 Prorated Tot 4.35 41 0 4 4 0 70 73 9 32 55 .270 .790 Actual Tot 2.99 59 0 5 6 3 69 72 10 29 57 .265 .781When the Cubs signed Worrell in May off the scrap pile, they weren't expecting him to pitch very well. But pitch well he did, surprisingly becoming the team's only truly dependable relief pitcher during the second half of the season. Worrell showed that he still had some life in his arm. He was durable, pitching in 54 of the Cubs' final 112 games, and had enough left in September to allow just one earned run in his final 14 appearances. Following the season Chicago traded him to San Francisco, where he will be asked to fill a key role. While his 2000 performance would indicate that Worrell is "back," he hadn't pitched effectively since 1996. Danny Young, reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 5.83 23 0 1 2 0 29 34 5 20 24 .293 .886 Prorated ChN 5.83 3 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 3 3 .293 .886 Actual ChN 21.00 4 0 0 1 0 3 5 1 6 0 .357 1.264Young pitched four times for the Cubs and showed no control or command of his pitches. Once again, this should have surprised nobody given his performance in earlier years. Optioned to Triple-A on April 7, and outrighted there in May, Young tore his left rotator cuff in September. His career is in jeopardy. Now a free agent. Rick Aguilera, closer, age 38 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 3.40 70 0 4 6 30 77 71 11 20 59 .246 .712 Prorated ChN 3.40 47 0 3 4 20 51 47 7 13 39 .246 .712 Actual ChN 4.91 54 0 1 2 29 48 47 11 18 38 .251 .795Aguilera is no longer capable of effectively closing games for a major-league club. The bite is gone from his pitches, especially his formerly excellent splitter, and he is making far too many mistakes in the strike zone: 11 homers in 48 innings for a closer -- especially one who does not throw hard and lives on control -- is inexcusable. His decline was surprisingly quick, although he had been living on the edge for a couple of seasons. In 2000, he walked ten lefty batters in fewer than 100 plate appearances and surrendered eight homers to right-handers in just 113 at-bats. Should Aguilera remain active -- and whether he will is not clear -- it could only be as a setup reliever. Now a free agent. Outlook The Cubs went into 2000 thinking that their veteran club could perform respectably. Instead, the clubhouse got old together. For 2001, management has again loaded up on other clubs' underachieving and burned-out veterans, picking up Matt Stairs, Bill Mueller, Ron Coomer, Jason Bere, Tom Gordon, and Jeff Fassero in offseason deals and signings. The only offseason acquisitions who could make a real difference are Todd Hundley, who remains an excellent hitter, and pitcher Julian Tavarez. The longer term future of the Cubs, as represented by the level of talent in the high minors, is brighter. Center fielder Corey Patterson, first baseman Hee Choi, and pitchers Carlos Zambrano, Ben Christiansen, and Will Ohman should all make a difference when they come up to The Show in the next year or two. But for now, the biggest thing to think about in 2001 is what the Cubs can get when they have to trade Sammy Sosa in July. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||