We get a lot of letters at Baseball Prospectus from Cubs fans. Any time the Cubs have a modest winning streak, or make some headway in the divisional race, we get these bizarre letters asking us to confirm that the Cubs are not, in fact, as good as their recent play, and will soon return to their mediocre ways. Naturally, a lot of Cubs fans, apparently terrified of having their hopes dashed in August and September, want to know if this team's a legitimate postseason contender, or just another cruel apparition sent to crush their collective psyche.
Let's take a look at how the Cubs got where they are -- 6 games in front in the NL Central -- and whether or not they can stay there.
How have the Cubs been winning?
It's not because of their offense. The Cubs rank 11th out of 16 in the National League in run scoring. Among the regulars, only Sammy Sosa, Rondell White, Ricky Gutierrez and Matt Stairs have been productive -- the rest of the lineup has been either injured (in the case of Bill Mueller) or awful (in the case of say, Todd Hundley.) The role players on this team were obviously chosen for reasons other than their offensive production. They're all horrible offensively and have been throughout their careers. Check out the supporting cast for the Cubs' offense:
Player 2001 OPS Career OPS
Miguel Cairo .787 .677
Todd Dunwoody .604 .631
Joe Girardi .599 .672
Augie Ojeda .520 .598
That's pretty much a black hole at the plate, should the need for a pinch-hitter or injury replacement pop up. So, basically, neither the regular players nor the role players are contributing at a championship-level offensively.
So how does a team with a bad offense play .600+ ball for nearly three months? You guessed it. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.
The Cubs lead the National League with 284 runs allowed for the season through Wednesday -- a mere 4.1 runs per game. The rotation's certainly contributed its fair share to the Cubs' success:
Pitcher GS ERA Innings/Outing
Jon Lieber 14 3.32 7.17
Julian Tavarez 13 3.32 6.19
Kerry Wood 14 3.71 6.07
Kevin Tapani 13 4.65 5.51
Jason Bere 13 4.71 5.59
You'll note that all of these gentlemen have pitched well enough to be the No. 1 starter in Texas. Kevin Tapani's contribution is understated by this brief summary; his ERA is somewhat inflated by two positively brutal outings in which he allowed 18 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Cubs' rotation has been three things that make a manager very happy: effective, dependable, and perhaps of greatest importance, healthy.
The Cubs haven't exactly struggled on the mound once the starter has left the game. You can't swing a 1908 Cubs World Series pennant in the Chicago bullpen without hitting a reliever that hasn't blossomed this year under the tutelage of pitching coach Oscar Acosta. The Cubs' bullpen has been mowing down batters this year at a record clip:
Pitcher IP ERA K/9
Jeff Fassero 32.0 2.53 9.84
Courtney Duncan 32.2 3.03 11.30
Kyle Farnsworth 33.2 3.21 14.70
Todd Van Poppel 30.1 3.71 12.46
Tom Gordon 18.1 3.93 15.22
Felix Heredia 21.2 4.98 7.48
Those K rates are extremely nasty. It's not unusual for a bullpen to have one or two guys that can really sit people down, but to have this kind of strikeout ability across the board is very rare. To provide a little context to those K rates, Randy Johnson has struck out 11.05 batters per nine innings throughout his career. (For a more in-depth look at the Cub bullpen's penchant for strikeouts, check out Rany Jazayerli's Doctoring the Numbers column this week at the Baseball Prospectus web site.)
The Cubs' pitching success this year is pretty impressive, and it's also broad-based. It's not just one guy in the rotation or bullpen who's bearing the load -- everyone's had some measure of success. No one in the bullpen's on pace to pitch more than 79 innings, and Don Baylor's been able to go deep in the pen with reasonable confidence in all his relievers. The rotation is on thinner ice, with Kerry Wood and Julian Tavarez both on pace to pitch 200 innings -- something they haven't been able to do without injury to this point in their careers. Jon Lieber's on pace to throw 240 innings just one season after he led the NL in innings pitched with 251.
What about luck? The Cubs have been pitching-heavy, but it's not as if they're running Pedro Martinez or Arizona's 1-2 punch out there every day. Well, yes, the Cubs have been at least a little lucky, if you take a look at what you'd expect of their win/loss record based on their offensive and defensive performances. The Cubs have scored 326 runs this season, and allowed 286 (again, through Wednesday). Using the pythagorean method to determine what kind of record you'd expect from those numbers, you get a record of 40-30, a full 3 games worse than the Cubs' current mark of 43-27. That may be attributable in part to luck, or possibly due to the effectiveness of the bullpen. The Cubs are 13-6 in one-run games, which is a couple of games better than one would expect. The Cubs have been a little bit lucky. Which begs the question ...
Can the Cubs reasonably expect to continue winning?
That depends on whether or not the Cubs are playing over their heads, and are likely to crash and burn during the remainder of the season. Let's take a look at the regulars and semi-regulars who will be playing in the second half. Here are their OPS for the season thus far, along with their OPS over the last three years, and whether or not one can reasonably expect, based on these numbers, either an improvement, a decline, or steady production.
Player 2001 OPS 3-year OPS 2nd half
Mueller, Bill .917 .750 Decline
Sosa, Sammy 1.113 1.022 Decline
White, Rondell .903 .868 Steady
Gutierrez, Ricky .811 .714 Decline
Coomer, Ron .694 .722 Steady
Young, Eric .716 .750 Steady
Stairs, Matt .856 .845 Steady
Matthews, Gary .714 .572* Decline
Zuleta, Julio .716 .886* Improvement
Hundley, Todd .553 .783 Improvement
*- Very few major league at bats.
There will undoubtedly be minor injuries and changes to the lineup, but it's not like the Cubs have had remarkably bad years from their offensive players. The offense probably isn't going to get much better barring a trade or significant changes in the role players.
Pitching is far more difficult to predict. Pitchers get hurt all the time, and forecasting ERA isn't easy -- looking at previous ERAs isn't particularly helpful. K-rate is a pretty reasonable indicator of future ERA success, and as you can see above, the Cubs' stuff is doing an amazing job of striking people out. If an injury does hit the starting rotation, Ruben Quevedo appears to be ready in Iowa, posting a 2.51 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 93.1 innings. Baylor's worked hard to balance the pitching load in the bullpen, and it's not unreasonable to assume that the staff can maintain something close to its current level of performance.
So, if the offense and defense stay about the same, will it be enough for the Cubs to win the NL Central?
Let's assume that the Cubs continue to score and prevent runs at their current pace, but that they stop outperforming their expected record based on those runs scored and allowed. That means the Cubs would score 754 runs for the season, and allow 667, and would post a .580 winning percentage, with a final record of 94-68. Would that be enough to win the central? Here's what the other contenders would need to do in order to beat the Cubs (win 95 games) under this scenario:
Club Current Win% Required Win % (June 22-)
St. Louis .535 .626
Houston .522 .634
Milwaukee .507 .645
The 6-game lead the Cubs have built is a nice thing to have.
The Cubs are in a good situation. They have a head start, and they have what other teams covet -- pitching. They and Atlanta are probably the two clubs that can be helped the most by a late-season hitter acquisition. It's always cheaper and easier to pick up a bat for a corner outfield spot or first base than it is to pick up a front line starting pitcher. The Cubs have the resources to make a stretch drive deal, and as much as I personally hate stretch drive deals, this might be one case where it would make sense to go out and make a bold move. I think the Denizens of the Friendly Confines would feel a heck of a lot more confident about making the postseason with Jason Giambi or Erubiel Durazo at first base rather than Ron Coomeror Julio Zuleta, and they might just get their wish.
The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Gary Huckabay can be reached at ghuckabay@baseballprospectus.com.
| |
|
