Thomas also does pretty well if you run his career through the Ken Keltner List, getting positive responses to 10 or 11 of the 15 questions therein.

Wow, that sounds a lot like Dale Murphy.

Murphy also won back-to-back MVPs at his peak, and he even tacked a huge year in his early thirties -- 1987 -- before falling off the face of the earth. Jim Rice had a similar career path as well, with a shorter decline phase after his last good season. (Albert Belle, with a comparable career path to Rice, is almost certain to be treated badly by the voters, albeit for other reasons.) Neither player has been embraced by the BBWAA in Hall of Fame voting, which is why it's worth wondering if Thomas has to do more to assure himself immortality.

Thomas has better credentials than those two do, but a lot of his value is in his walks, which aren't the sexiest line on a Hall of Fame resumé. Additionally, Thomas has essentially no career defensive value, and by the time he retires, may have spent more time as a DH than as a first baseman. There are pockets of resistance against that type of player in the BBWAA, so Thomas may be best served by reaching some milestones like 400 home runs, while keeping his rate stats high enough to make him appear to be a no-brainer. It's very difficult to keep a 980 OPS out of the Hall of Fame. OK, it's impossible, but put nothing past the BBWAA.

Of greatest concern is Thomas' list of most comparable players. Throughout his peak, Thomas was most comparable to Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg. Now, however, he is most comparable to Jeff Bagwell (which is eerie, given that the two were both born on May 27, 1968), who also falls into a nebulous gray area. Of Thomas' top 10 comps, just three (Greenberg, Johnny Mize and Chuck Klein) are enshrined. The rest of his list consists of Dick Allen and a bunch of contemporary players, none of whom is a good bet to be voted in (Juan Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Albert Belle).

Yes, Thomas is probably a Hall of Famer, but given his complete lack of defensive contributions and his performance since the age of 30, it's fair to look at him and wonder what happens if he continues to slouch towards retirement. Another big year, or even a couple of 1999s, would really help him at this point. If he really is as done as his last 400 at-bats seem to indicate, then he may be sweating out the middle of January for a while after he retires.

If you don't believe me, ask Dale Murphy.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.