Sooner or later, Derek Jeter and the Yankees will come to a financial
truce. Whether he goes to arbitration, signs a one-year deal or convinces
George Steinbrenner to pay him $180 million for the next nine seasons, Jeter
will move on to the business of the Yankees' new-millennium offense -- which,
to put it mildly, can't breathe without him.
|  | | Jeter was an MVP twice last season: in the All-Star Game and in the World Series. |
Carrying the lineup is no small job description in the Bronx, considering
the Yankees are aging and in some critical areas, even declining. Jeter will
get his money. But can he keep the Red Sox from launching a coup in the AL
East?
That's one of the many questions facing the Bombers as spring training
approaches. Here are the unresolved issues awaiting Joe Torre's attention
next month.
Can the Yankees survive on great pitching alone? Obviously, the decision
to pursue Mike Mussina, and not Manny Ramirez, this winter indicates the
Bombers' shifting priorities. In some ways, the 2001 Yankees are adopting a
philosophy similar to the 1996 edition, when they won the World Series with
impenetrable starting pitching and a mediocre offense.
Baseball people believe GM Brian Cashman made the right move in playing
to the Yankees' strength, because there's no guarantee Ramirez would have been
able to reverse the downward trend in the Yankee offense.
Even with David Justice's stellar second-half numbers, the Yankees'
slugging percentage has slipped each year since 1998 -- from .460 to .453 to
.450. In addition, their run differential has decreased from 965-656 to
900-731 to 871-814.
What about Justice? Can he hit another 41 home runs this year, considering he turns 36 in April? Probably not, although the Yankees are placing great faith in his
durability. In fact, Torre has every intention of using Justice regularly in
left field, despite the return of the younger Shane Spencer to the lineup
this year.
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The declining numbers
|
|
How the Yankees have hit as a team over the last three years:
|
|
Year
|
Runs
|
HR
|
Avg.
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
1998
|
965
|
207
|
.288
|
.368
|
.460
|
|
1999
|
900
|
193
|
.282
|
.366
|
.453
|
|
2000
|
871
|
205
|
.277
|
.354
|
.450
|
Cashman said, "We think David is a better hitter when he's out in the
field." That was certainly the case in 2000, when he smashed those 41 HRs, a
career high, and drove in 118 runs, only two shy of his career best.
There's no doubt Justice was rejuvenated by the late June trade to the Bronx:
he batted .305 as a Yankee, with 60 RBI in 78 games.
But there's every
reason to watch Justice closely in 2001, especially since he had a similar
terrific first year with the Indians in 1997, then dropped off noticeably the
following season.
Did the Yankees make any mistakes this winter? Signing Mussina made David
Cone expendable, so it's hard to fault the Yankees on that. But letting
reliever Jeff Nelson flee to the Mariners was tough to figure, especially
since he was so invaluable.
Nelson led AL relievers by limiting opponents to a .183 average, and
it'll be hard for the Bombers to replace that Frisbee-like slider.
Cashman allowed the Mariners to out-bid the Yankees for Nelson, who was a
free agent, although he says, "Jeff wanted to go back to Seattle all along.
That was his plan."
Where is Jeter's career headed, offensively? Assuming the Yankees do
sign him to a long-term contract, and he's able to avoid further
distractions, it's possible Jeter could turn into a 30-plus home run hitter.
He's not Alex Rodriguez, or even Nomar Garciaparra, but Jeter is better
than what he showed in 2000, when he declined in batting average, home runs and
RBI from his brilliant 1999 performance.
In fact, Reggie Jackson believes Jeter is approaching a crossroads, able
to choose if he wants to be a high-average hitter, or to become a long-ball
threat. "He has the talent and the strength and the discipline to do either
one," Reggie said not long ago. "It's nice to have choices like that."
Where are the Yankees weakest? At the corners. Scott Brosius hardly
resembles the MVP from 1998 World Series, down 70 points in two seasons and
with just a .299 on-base percentage last year. The Yankees love his quick
hands and soft glove, but can they really afford a 34-year-old third baseman
who batted just .185 in situations described as "close and late"?
Similarly, the Yankees have watched Tino Martinez shrink from his
impressive numbers in 1997, when he hit 44 HRs with 141 RBI. Last year,
Martinez hit only 16 HR, and failed to drive in 100 runs for the first time
since 1994.
What are the Yankees' greatest strengths? Their core -- Jeter, Bernie
Williams, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and the starting rotation -- makes it
tough to pick anyone else in the American League and the franchise exudes
stability and professionalism, thanks to Cashman and Torre.
Of course, all that could change instantly, especially if Paul O'Neill's
return in 2001 was a mistake, or if Justice gets old, or if Orlando
Hernandez's elbow blows out.
Even so, the Bombers have enough buffers in the rotation to suffer a
missing cylinder, and as long as Jeter and Williams remain healthy, they can
probably squeeze another year out of this golden era.
Bob Klapisch of the Bergen (N.J.) Record covers baseball for ESPN.com. Send this story to a friend | |
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