|
|
|
|
 |
| ||
|
Scores Schedules Standings Statistics Transactions Injuries: AL | NL Players Weekly Lineup Message Board Minor Leagues MLB Stat Search Clubhouses | ||
| Sport Sections | ||
|
| ||
| TODAY: Friday, May 12 | |||||
| M's could be surprise winner in West ESPN The Magazine | |||||
| Spring training is a time for optimism, for dreamers, for the hope that your team can win the division when most believe it can't. It's getting harder to find darkhorses these days because of financial disparities, but the last season the Reds and A's proved that teams can contend without a $60 million payroll. What team might go from sub-.500 to division winner this year?
Our choice is the Mariners. This is not to suggest that they are better without Ken Griffey Jr., because they're not. If he were there, and in a good frame of mind to play, they would be the favorite to win. But they still could win the West because the Rangers, the division winner three of the last four years, have taken a step backwards; and because the Mariners have the perhaps the deepest rotation in club history, as well as an upgraded bullpen from 1999.
The Mariners have six legitimate major league starting pitchers, including three -- Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele and Jamie Moyer -- who received a 1999 Cy Young vote. The best of the six might eventually be Gil Meche, a hard-throwing right-hander who won eight games the second half of last year as a 20-year-old rookie. The Mariners entered camp with three pitchers who won at least 14 games last year, and another who won 11 -- only the Braves, Yankees and Indians can match that.
"We've had years where we're OK 1-2-3," says Seattle manager Lou Piniella, "but trying to figure out who the 4-5 starters were, well, they just didn't emerge."
The fifth and sixth starters for the Mariners are John Halama, who won 11 games last year, and Bret Tomko, who has a great arm, and is in the best shape of his career following an offseason of serious workouts. A starting pitcher, or perhaps reliever Jose Paniagua, could be traded before Opening Day for a left-handed hitting outfielder. How big a switch is that for the Mariners?
Paniagua is a trade possiblity because the Seattle bullpen is deeper than it has been since Norm Charlton and Jeff Nelson pitched so well in the '95 playoffs. Jose Mesa will open as the closer, but if he falters, newcomers Karzuhiro Sasaki or Arthur Rhodes could close. Sasaki, the all-time saves leader in Japan, is no longer a dominating pitcher, but he's polished and can throw strikes blindfolded with four pitches. Rhodes still has a tremendous arm; the question is, will he be able to work back-to-back days?
The Mariners defense will be better with Carlos Guillen at third (best arm on the team), David Bell at second base and John Olerud at first. Pitching and defense as a priority? Another big switch for the Mariners. But it's a necessity at Safeco Field, a far bigger yard than the Kingdome, and the ball doesn't carry. "It's a totally different game there," says Piniella.
The Mariners will play a different game this year than in recent years, which isn't a bad idea. Last year, Seattle tied an American League record by losing five games in which they scored at least 10 runs. In AL history, only two teams have ever finished under .500 with two 40-homer men on the team: the 1998 Mariners and the 1999 Mariners. This, of course, wasn't the fault of Griffey or Alex Rodriguez, but it proves that power doesn't guarantee wins.
Even without Griffey, the Mariners should score 800 runs. Olerud is a huge addition to the middle of the lineup; the fact that he hits left-handers is extremely important. Right fielder Jay Buhner, who last year set a major league record for fewest at-bats (266) in a 100-strikeout season, has had a terrific spring. For the first time in several years, he appears healthy. With Rodriguez, Olerud, Edgar Martinez and Buhner in the middle, the M's are formidable.
They do need to add a left-handed hitting outfielder (Jim Edmonds? Garret Anderson?) so Mark McLemore doesn't have to play primarily left field, allowing him to do what does best: be a infield-outfield utility guy. If the Mariners can deal a pitcher for an outfielder who can hit, they have a chance to beat the A's and Rangers in the West. Then will come the really difficult part -- convincing Rodriguez to stay. As of now, he's leaving via free agency after the season.
ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian writes a column each Thursday for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE ESPN.com baseball predictions ESPN.com's spring training 2000 coverage  | ||||