Dusty Baker found time to ask a couple questions of his own when he finally got one of those old-school Cubs caps on his head.

"When I think about it, why not me?" Baker asked at a November news conference. "Why not us?"

	In Chicago, Dusty Baker has the starting pitching and Sammy Sosa, but not much else.

If Baker wanted, he could get 15 minutes to 15 hours of discussion on those questions sitting on any barstool in Chicago. But why deal with harsh reality when you can exploit it?

T-shirts have already been printed asking the question, "Why not us?" It was the idea of club VP John McDonough.

"I've never been into themses and slogans because they can backfire if you infer that the team is going to win," McDonough said. "But I think it fits. Why not us?"

Baker points to Anaheim's unexpected success.

"Look at the Angels, who beat us," said Baker, referring to the San Francisco Giants. "Everybody was talking they had a curse and hadn't won. You have to think about leaving whatever has happened bad in the past. You can't bring it forward with you. It's a new time, a new day, a new era, starting over from zero."

Teams can turn it around in a hurry in this era of free agency and revolving doors. Beginning with the 1987 Minnesota Twins, nine of the last 30 World Series teams were coming off losing seasons. This year's Angels were the fifth of those teams to win championships. The others: Florida in 1997, Minnesota in '91 and '87 and Cincinnati in '90.

So it's not farfetched for your standard, run-of-the-mill second-division team to dream about becoming an overnight hit. But what about the Cubs team that Baker is taking over? Can the three-time National League Manager of the Year work miracles in his first season at Wrigley Field?

In a word, no. Numbers alone suggest it is highly unlikely.

In the last 20 years, the Cubs have improved by at least 16 games four times -- winning the NL East after jumps of 25 wins between 1983 and '84 and 16 wins between '88 and '89, and more recently making gains of 22 wins in '98 and 23 in 2001.

If Baker could somehow tap into that kind of momentum next April and May, he could be headed toward a jump of, say, 22 wins (the average from those previous four rebounds). That would probably earn him a fourth Manager of the Year award, but it would get his team only 89 victories, hardly making it a playoff lock.

But let's look behind those numbers at what the Cubs have in place for 2003.

Strengths

	Mark Prior Starting Pitcher Chicago Cubs Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM W L Sv K ERA 19 6 6 0 147 3.32

Baker inherits a group of starting pitchers that he coveted every time San Francisco met the Cubs last season. In Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Matt Clement, he has three starters with stuff that is at least equal to his Giants' ace Jason Schmidt and far superior to all of his other starters in San Francisco.

Based on his Rookie of the Year performance and 20-strikeout game, Wood is the biggest name of the bunch. But Prior is the most likely to develop into a perennial Cy Young contender and Clement can be just as nasty as the other two. In fact, he was harder to hit (.215 opponents' batting average) than either Wood (.221) or Prior (.226) in 2002.

	Kerry Wood Starting Pitcher Chicago Cubs Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM W L Sv K ERA 33 12 11 0 217 3.66

Those three horses aren't all that's in the Cubs' stable, either. Carlos Zambrano held hitters to a .228 average in 16 starts, compiling a 3.68 earned run average despite 4.9 walks per nine innings. Juan Cruz, who was rated almost as highly as Prior entering 2002, was a rookie bust but still managed a 3.75 ERA in nine starts.

The arrival of Prior, Clement, Zambrano and Cruz has covered the hole created by the loss of Jon Lieber to Tommy John surgery. Lieber, a 20-game winner in 2001, was the Opening Day starter last season. The Cubs declined a 2003 option on his contract but hope to re-sign him to a deal that will let them monitor his comeback with an eye on 2004.

	Matt Clement Starting Pitcher Chicago Cubs Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM W L Sv K ERA 32 12 11 0 215 3.60

General Manager Jim Hendry is searching for a left-handed complement to his righthanders. He took a mini-gamble on Mike Sirotka, signing him to a minor-league contract with a base of almost $1 million.

The Cubs' only other real strength resides in right field. Sammy Sosa is hardly the ultra-disciplined force that Barry Bonds has been in recent seasons, but he has been the majors' most productive run-producer since the mid-90s. He's averaged 51 homers and 118 RBIs over the last eight years.

Like Bonds, Sosa is more than a little self-absorbed. He is a complicated package requiring careful handling. But there are worse things than knowing the guy in the middle of the lineup is going to relentlessly put up numbers.

Compared to the 2002 Angels? If there was a reason to be excited about Anaheim entering last season, it was the starting pitching. After the front office added Kevin Appier (while subtracting Mo Vaughn) and Aaron Sele, the Angels were the only team in the majors that went to spring training with five pitchers who had made at least 30 starts and worked at least 193 innings in 2001.

Weaknesses
For a manager, there's not much of a worse situation than having a bullpen that can't hold a lead and a lineup that can't overcome a deficit. That was Don Baylor's fate before his dismissal last July, and it didn't get better under Bruce Kimm.

Despite the addition last spring of Antonio Alfonseca (along with Clement), the Cubs' bullpen blew more saves (25) than it converted (23). Kyle Farnsworth started badly and steadily disintegrated, becoming useless by September. Jeff Fassero was a mess until being traded to St. Louis. Youngsters Cruz and Francis Beltran were overpowering at times but were victimized by gopher balls and walks.

If the Cubs had a reliever of the year award, it would have gone to Joe Borowski. Enough said.

Offensively, the Cubs didn't get enough out of third base (Bill Mueller), left field (Moises Alou), center field (Corey Patterson), second base (Bobby Hill) and catcher (Joe Girardi and Todd Hundley). Their infield totals would have been much worse without the unexpected contributions from Mark Bellhorn, who somehow managed to hit 27 home runs without establishing himself as part of the 2003 lineup.

Fielding was another problem. First baseman Fred McGriff, utility infielder Chris Stynes and the catchers were the most notable liabilities. Teams also ran on Sosa, who at times threw like a sore elbow was killing him.

The 2002 Angels? Run-production, oddly enough, was the biggest question about the Angels entering the season. Darin Erstad and Tim Salmon had both had major declines in 2001. Vaughn had missed the season, leaving Troy Glaus as the only thumper in the lineup.

Conclusion
There are no parallels that suggest the Cubs are positioned to turn in an Angelic performance in 2003.

When looking back at Anaheim, it's easy to see how 2001 was a hidden building year. The decline in scoring (from 5.3 runs per game in 2000 to 4.3) led to a 75-87 season that obscured the progress made in Mike Scioscia's second season.

The Angels addressed two weaknesses that had presented themselves in 2000 -- pitching and fielding. After allowing their opponents to score 869 runs the year before, they cut that total to 730 in 2001. It foreshadowed 2002, when Anaheim's pitchers surrendered fewer runs (644) than any other AL team.

By contrast, the Cubs regressed across the board in 2002. Their run total dropped from 777, which was seventh in the NL, to 706, which was 11th. Their runs allowed jumped from 701, which was fourth, to 759, which was 11th.

And look at the faces behind those two sets of statistics.

Anaheim stubbornly clung to the course after finishing 41 games behind Seattle in 2001. The addition of designated hitter Brad Fullmer (replacing Vaughn) represented the only basic change to a lineup that had largely grown up together.

Over the last three seasons, the Angels have used only 12 primary players in the nine lineup spots. Take DH out of the mix, and the only two changes are David Eckstein replacing Gary DiSarcina at short and Scott Spiezio emerging at first base.

By contrast, the Cubs are like a patchwork quilt.

They've had 14 primary players at the eight positions the last two seasons, with only Sosa and the since-departed Mueller repeating in 2001 and '02. Go back to 2000, as we did with Anaheim, and the Cubs have used 18 different primary players out of a possible 24.

There's no real end in sight to this shuffling.

Rookie first baseman Hee Seop Choi, second-year second baseman Hill and veteran catcher Damian Miller (or free agent Ivan Rodriguez) are in line to become 2003 regulars. It's unclear who will take over at third. If the Cubs don't sign a major free agent, such as Jeff Kent (who would be asked to switch from second base) or Robin Ventura, Bellhorn could figure in a platoon.

Baker believes he can win in Chicago. He'll have a somewhat improved chance because of recent developments, including the signing of reliever Mike Remlinger, the agreed-upon trade that is expected to send Hundley to Los Angeles for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek and indications that Rodriguez is on the radar screen.

But don't even think about winning it all in 2003. Baker's assignment is to lay the groundwork for success in 2004 and beyond.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.