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Friday, March 22
 
Back-end starters can be key to success

By Alan Schwarz
Special to ESPN.com

One of baseball's best characteristics is how you can't hand the ball to your running back 40 times a game or feed Shaq till he bursts. No matter how good A-Rod may be, he'll never bat more than once every nine times. Randy Johnson can pitch just once every four or five days, period. (And Derek Bell plays, well, whenever he kinda feels like it.)

Nowhere is this dynamic more apparent than the struggle most teams face trying to fill the back end of their rotations -- the No. 4 spot, which will make the same 33-35 starts as the three ahead of it, and No. 5, which depending on how days off fall still takes the mound about 25 times. That's 60 starts, more than a third of your games, being made by guys who might be major leaguers in paycheck only.

Cory Lidle
No. 4 starter Cory Lidle was 13-6 with a 3.59 ERA for the A's last season.

Teams which strike gold that deep, like the Mariners did last year with Paul Abbott and the A's with Cory Lidle, get a huge leg up on the competition.

"They're huge," A's ace Tim Hudson says of Lidle and Oakland's No. 5, Eric Hiljus, a revelation who went 5-0 with a 3.95 ERA in that role. "Everyone talks about our top three, me and Mulder and Zito, but Cory was our best pitcher at times last year and a lot of people don't realize that. A lot of 4 or 5 guys you chalk up as a tough game to win. We're expecting to win with those guys, and a lot of teams can't say that."

Even some contenders. The World Series-champion Diamondbacks, of course, don't have much past Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, and are going on the back end that makes Calista Flockhart's look fat: Rick Helling (12-11, 5.17 with the Rangers last year) and Brian Anderson (3-9, 5.46 as a starter with Arizona). The Braves have the enigmatic Kevin Millwood and the vegematic Albie Lopez.

Much of a 4 or 5's success has to do with outside factors. A strong bullpen is critical because back-end starters usually don't last as long as front-end guys. And Abbott went 17-4 last year not just because of the Mariners' strong bullpen but also in large part to getting 7.79 runs per nine innings of run support, by far the most in baseball. (He has been bumped up to No. 3 with Aaron Sele's relocation to Anaheim.) "I don't think he'll win as much as he did," one scout said. "He'll have the same stuff without the same cushion."

Of course 4s and 5s don't often face off against their counterparts on other teams because rotations get jumbled after only a few weeks. (Imagine Robert Ellis' horror when for his third Diamondbacks start last year on April 26 he matched up with one Greg Maddux.) Therefore labels can be only psychological. "I never considered myself an ace (in Texas)," Arizona's Helling said. "It just worked out that way. Coming here, I'm not. I'm not gonna be that guy who's looked at to stop a losing streak. I don't have that distinction here."

Finding two guys who can pitch even .500 ball versus a pair of stiffs who blow out your bullpen several times before you axe them can make several games' difference in the standings come September. So even the A's, Yankees and Twins, whose front-three locomotives are their biggest reasons for contending, must give plenty of thought these next 10 days to the rotation's rear cars. Teams wind up with different pairings -- which are fluid and hard to predict before final roster cuts -- but they usually break down into one of several categories, among them:

Ainsworth
Ainsworth

Rueter
Rueter

  • The Old and the Youthful: A veteran at No. 4 and a kid on his way up at No. 5 is a popular and comfortable mix that allows a young pitcher to ease into the rotation. Examples here include the Indians (Chuck Finley and Ryan Drese), Twins (Rick Reed and Kyle Lohse), Astros (Dave Mlicki and Carlos Hernandez), Mariners (James Baldwin and Joel Piniero) and Giants (Kirk Rueter and Kurt Ainsworth). Speaking of San Francisco, Rueter is one of the National League's better-kept secrets, with a 69-46 record the last five years with double-digit wins and a over-.500 record each season. "There's a pretty big gap on that team," one scout said. "Rueter's never a guy to light up the gun, but he understands how to use his stuff and is a winner. I'm not a big Ainsworth guy. I can't see him ever being better than a 4 or 5 guy, but they see a 2. Brian Sabean will keep a lot of guys where you scratch your head, so he must know something about Ainsworth."

  • Up and Out: This is where a prospect is already at No. 4 and you're just hoping for a veteran not to hurt you at No. 5. See the Cubs (Juan Cruz and Julian Tavarez), Devil Rays (Nick Bierbrodt and Wilson Alvarez) and Cardinals (Bud Smith and either Andy Benes or Garret Stephenson). Since Smith has minor-league options left there has been some talk in Cardinals camp about keeping the two veterans, but Smith's performance last year (6-3, 3.83 with a no-hitter) will probably be too impressive to ignore. "He pitches a lot like Jamie Moyer," one scout said. "Placement of the fastball, changes speeds and keeps the curveball over. If I'm them I hold onto him. Stephenson's been hurt for a year and a half and Benes is done, in my opinion. I'd be scared to have him out there because he's a 4 1/3-inning guy." Another interesting example here is the Blue Jays, who after Luke Prokopec at No. 4 (following Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay and Brandon Lyon) have an average rotation age of 24, before 29-year-old greybeard Scott Eyre could crash the party at No. 5.

  • Veterans Only: The Yankees have had such trouble getting a young No. 5 guy (Ted Lilly, Randy Keisler and Adrian Hernandez haven't exactly earned their pinstripes) that George Steinbrenner decided to just have David Wells, Orlando Hernandez and Sterling Hitchcock on the payroll to fill the last two rotation spots. The Angels will break camp with an uncharacteristically deep rotation that has Kevin Appier and Scott Schoenweis, who has two full years under his belt, picking up the rear. The Red Sox have had Tim Wakefield and Frank Castillo go at it for No. 5, but seem ready to try embattled former closer Derek Lowe as their No. 4 after his intriguing cameo as a starter last year (1.13 ERA and just 14 baserunners in 16 innings over three starts). One scout has his doubts, though: "I don't see it -- I think you're really reaching there. To me he's a borderline No. 5 guy you're always trying to replace."

    Clement
    Clement

    Beckett
    Beckett

  • Bring on the Youth: Whether it's because your club's rebuilding (Florida's Josh Beckett and Matt Clement) or because it just stinks (Baltimore's Sidney Ponson and Calvin Maduro), sometimes you just go with two young guys. Beckett, the top pitching prospect in baseball, might immediately prove to be a No. 4 starter in name only; and one scout said perpetual prospect Clement (9-10, 5.05 last year) could blossom any day now. "If he's No. 5, goodness gracious," he said. "He comes mid-90s with movement with a nasty slider. The problem is he doesn't handle his emotions real well and concentrate."

    Then of course there's the A's approach, which is to scout other teams' castoffs so well you can get perfect No. 4 and 5 guys on the cheap. Though Lidle (13-6, 3.59) is no secret anymore, if Hiljus moves up to his level the A's will boast the deepest rotation in baseball.

    "Out of those five, the last two hurt us the most," said Mariners second baseman Bret Boone, and he's right: Lidle and Hiljus were 3-0 against Seattle and the Hudson-Mulder-Zito trio went 2-4 last season. "You can't take them for granted."

    Them or any other 4 or 5 guy. Ignore them at your own risk, because not only can A-Rod not hit 10 times a game, he definitely can not pitch.

    Alan Schwarz is the Senior Writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.







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