You might think that for an organization reeling from its horrible start, the Oakland A's at least have a lot to look forward to in the upcoming amateur draft. With seven of the first 39 picks, the organization could be stocked with prospects for years to come.

The problem is, teams that have a slew of top selections in the draft -- there's usually one every year or so -- historically don't use them particularly well. In fact draft bonanzas, as they are affectionately called, are often remembered far less affectionately five and 10 years later.

Oakland's regular picks in the June 4-5 draft come 26th in every round. But losing three Type A free agents last offseason has netted them three more first-rounders and three supplemental first-rounders (between the first and second rounds) as compensation. They get the Red Sox' 16th overall pick for losing Johnny Damon, the Yankees' 24th for Jason Giambi and the Cardinals' 30th overall for Jason Isringhausen. Then come picks Nos. 35, 37 and 39 before the second round begins.

Paydirt, right? Then again, look back at past bonanzas and you'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

The A's can even examine their own history. In 1990, they had four of the first 36 picks and spent them on pitchers Todd Van Poppel, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro and Kirk Dressendorfer. They immediately were coronated the Four Aces. ... only Peters and Zancanaro never reached the big leagues, and Dressendorfer pitched in only seven games before his arm exploded. Van Poppel, so celebrated when he was picked (where have you gone, Chipper Jones?), never pitched well for Oakland and took 10 years to become effective as a middle reliever.

You think that's bad? Just take a look at the Astros the following year. In 1991, they had seven of the first 50 picks and only one of them even played a single big-league game. That was right-hander John Burke, the sixth overall pick, and he didn't even sign with the club, instead returning to the University of Florida.

"When we were finished, we were pleased," said Houston's scouting director that June, current Rangers executive Dan O'Brien. Noting that four of his selections were raw high school players, he added, "One thing we learned is that year-in and year-out, the best drafts have balance. There are mixes of various ages, polished players and raw players. That was emphasized by that draft."

There are two things to remember here. One, only two-thirds of first-round picks ever reach the major leagues in the first place. This is not football or basketball, where a haul of selections can transform an entire organization. (In part from trading Herschel Walker in 1989 the Dallas Cowboys had 11 picks in the first four rounds of the 1991 draft and stocked its roster for its 1990s glory days.) The chances of a major league baseball team having so monumental a draft is incredibly small. The Reds got Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn one-two in 1998, but any team that holds its breath for that will turn blue.

Two, a great majority of baseball's extra picks come at Nos. 20-45 overall, when the best, relatively sure-fire talent is long gone. The 1991 Cardinals had three regular first-round picks and got Dmitri Young, Allen Watson and Brian Barber -- not great, but at least three guys who reached the majors. Their supplemental picks were the immortal Tom McKinnon, Dan Cholowsky and Eddie Williams, none of whom played a big-league game. Same thing with the 1993 Brewers, who in the first round got pitchers Jeff D'Amico and Kelly Wunsch, but in the supplemental round took Todd Dunn, Joe Wagner and Brian Banks, all busts.

In 1994, the Mets had eight of the first 98 picks. In one April and May stretch scouting crosschecker Jack Zduriencik schlepped to 44 outposts in 40 days -- from Kent, Ohio to see Dustin Hermanson to Warner Robins, Ga., to see Mark Johnson to Phoenix to see Paul Konerko and so on -- and racked up more than 20,000 frequent-flier miles in those six weeks. Having the No. 1 overall pick only added to the intrigue. This is what the club wound up with:

1st round: Paul Wilson, Terrence Long
1st round (supplemental): Jay Payton
2nd round: Sean Johnston, Matt LeCroy (did not sign)
3rd round: Bryon Gainey
4th round: Kevin McCarthy, Kenny Pumphrey

Yes, Paul Wilson got hurt. And yes, Terrence Long is a decent player -- for the A's. But the only player who contributed anything to the Mets is Payton, whose hold on a starting job is slippery at best.

Oakland's 7-of-39 smorgasbord might mercifully become the last Draft Bonanza ever. Management has grown disenchanted with the draft-compensation system: First, the picks have turned out to be barely any compensation at all, but most importantly having the amateur draft connected in even such a small way to major league free agency has tied ownership's hands in its recent attempts to make any changes to the draft. (Adding foreign players, creating a bonus cap, etc.) Cutting that link, for which the union would reflexively demand something in return, could give teams more leeway in the future.

Either way, checking the draft order and seeing your team with a bunch of extra picks doesn't mean a whole lot. It will have a better chance of getting one decent player, yes, but don't expect four or five. The balloon of hope can Van Poppel pretty quick.

Alan Schwarz is the Senior Writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.