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| Monday, August 21 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In the name of Terry Puhl, what happened? ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
They still run many of the names out there that spent the last three
seasons playing baseball in October: Bagwell. Alou. Lima. Reynolds. Hidalgo.
But for the Houston Astros, there is only Halloween with
the kids to look forward to this October -- and a whole bunch of playoff games that will go
on without them.
This team already has seen what can happen when the closer can't close. After living through the nightmare of Wagner's nine blown saves in two months, the Astros know just how critical to their future he is. The good news is he didn't need reconstructive elbow surgery. The bad news is he still needed to have a tendon repaired and calcium deposits removed. While the prognosis is good, "it's still surgery," Hunsicker said, "especially with a guy who makes his living throwing 95 to 100 miles per hour." Then there's Biggio, whose dropoff in production (to .268, with just eight homers and 26 extra-base hits) was already a worry, even before he tore his ACL and MCL on the same play three weeks ago.
No team ever plans for a 20-game winner who goes out the next year and leads the league in losses. But do the Astros try to trade Lima and go in another direction? Or do they assume there's hope for this guy yet? "I still think Lima can be a pretty good pitcher," Dierker said. "He's probably not quite as good as what he's done the last couple of years. But I think he's better than he's been this year. I have a feeling he'll be back in our rotation -- because I don't have a feeling people will be breaking down our doors to trade for him. So I think his value is higher to us than it would be if we traded him." What about the rest of the rotation? From a team that rolled out two 20-game winners (Lima and Hampton), plus the dependable Shane Reynolds, a year ago, the Astros have plummeted to a team whose rotation has the worst sea-level ERA in the league (5.70, barely ahead of the Rockies' 5.84). No team is going to contend, even in the rocketball era, when its starters give up six runs a night. But how do the Astros fix this mess? Well, the best news is Scott Elarton, who is 9-1 since June 16, 13-4 overall and giving every indication, Dierker says, that "he can take over as a No. 1-type pitcher for a long time." Reynolds will be back. But he needs to be a lot closer to the pitcher who started the year 5-1 than the guy who has gone 2-8 since. And rookie Wade Miller has opened enough eyes lately, particularly by taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning Friday against Milwaukee, that he has laid claim to a spot in the 2001 rotation. But then what? Dotel prefers to go back into the rotation after Wagner returns, but the Astros are trying to convince him his future is in the bullpen. And Dierker has talked about moving talented-but-disappointing, Chris Holt into the bullpen, too. But Hunsicker has mixed emotions on that. If the Astros do have money to spend, they'd prefer to spend it on a starting pitcher -- preferably a left-hander. So they'll undoubtedly take a run at luring Hampton back. But if they'd thought Hampton wanted to stay, they never would have traded him in the first place. And Enron isn't going to help them convince any pitcher to come to Houston. "We've got to find a way to stabilize our starting rotation," Hunsicker said. "We need to find three guys who can get us to the sixth or seventh inning on a regular basis with a chance to win. Elarton is the only guy who's shown any consistency at all when things started to unravel. We've had no consistency out of our rotation and no reliable closer, and that's a bad combination." The defense dept. The Astros' other major Achilles heel has been defense. They're 25th in the major leagues in fielding percentage. Scouts felt Biggio was losing range even before his knee surgery. They've had no stability at shortstop. Richard Hidalgo has played center but is more suited for one of the corners. So up the middle, this team has been a mess. "I think shortstop is our biggest question mark," Hunsicker said. "We've talked about Adam Everett (the former Red Sox No. 1 pick who was obtained in the Carl Everett deal). But I don't believe in pushing kids before we feel like they're prepared to compete productively. I guess we'd leave the door open. But it depends on what we decide our goal is for 2001. I don't see him as being ready to start in 2001 for a contending team." Another pivotal question is what to do at third base, where Caminiti has had trouble staying in the lineup and rookie Chris Truby has played well in his absence. "We've got an option on Caminiti, so that's a big decision," Hunsicker said. "We'd like to see Caminiti get back before the end of the year and establish he's healthy. But the way Truby's played has been encouraging. He's shown signs of developing some power. So he's got to be a consideration." Then there's the outfield, where the Astros have a major traffic jam. They'd prefer to play Cedeno in center field and Hidalgo in one of the corners. But they're not certain Cedeno can -- or wants to -- play center. Then there are all those other outfielders: Moises Alou, Daryle Ward, Lance Berkman. Someone in that group needs to get traded this winter. And they'd obviously prefer that someone be Alou, who has risen back to prominence with a tremendous comeback season (.358, 23 home runs). But if he doesn't waive his no-trade clause -- and he's refused to do that all season -- they'll probably have to move Ward, who has 18 home runs in just 224 at-bats. Can they re-sign Bagwell? With Biggio's future in question, there's no doubt anymore that this is Bagwell's team. But to keep him, it will take a contract in the Chipper Jones neighborhood ($15 million per year), if not beyond. And much as they want to keep Bagwell around, there's no certainty McLane will agree to dish out that kind of money -- even to one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport and a guy who's irreplaceable to this franchise. "That's one of the primary issues we have to deal with this winter," Hunsicker said. "He is under contract for one more year. All I can say is that we'll make every effort." But does Bagwell want to stay? Most signs have indicated he does. But he also has made it clear he's unhappy with what has happened this year -- and wants to see a commitment from management that this team still aspires to contend. Asked if the Astros' offensive resurgence lately has given him the feeling they might not be that far away from contending, Bagwell seemed to speak volumes by replying with an emphatic: "No." "I wouldn't say I'm confident this team could just go out and make a couple of changes and contend," he said. "There are going to have to be some significant changes to make us a contending team." One change many of these players clearly would prefer is a change of managers. But there are conflicting indications about whether that's being considered. And McLane recently gave Dierker yet another vote of confidence. So the bigger philosophical question is whether this particular group of players still has the mind set to contend, or whether this team might need to tear much of that core group apart and start over. "It's been very difficult to handle," Hunsicker said. "Most of these players haven't been in this situation. Some have never been in this situation before. But I guess if you try to find a silver lining, it's that I think you find out most about people when they have to deal with adversity. "The reality is, we have some really hard evaluations to make. Not just decisions. Evaluations. Some of our key veteran players have been underproductive. So the question is, do we think they'll rebound, or is this the beginning of a continuous downward spiral in performance? They're difficult questions to answer." And only once they answer them can the Astros decide where they go from here. "I think if we believe this club has a chance to rebound quickly next year, the only realistic way to do that is to keep this nucleus intact and expect a rebound in performance back to prior levels," Hunsicker said. "But the more significant changes we decide this team has to make in one year, the more difficult it will be to put all the pieces back in place." So what is this team? Is it the '91 Oakland A's, beaten up by injuries, just taking an intermission before one more championship run? Or is it the '94 Blue Jays, with its better days in the rear-view mirror and a rebuilding movement straight ahead? "We're not prepared to answer those questions yet," says Hunsicker. But sooner or later, for the Houston Astros, the decision days await. They'd better keep the Tylenol handy. Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Jayson Stark archive | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
