Two weeks ago, if you'd asked, "Who's the National League MVP?" we'd
have answered: "Mike Piazza. Who else? Next question."
But now, all of a sudden, it's not so simple. The Mets are fading.
Piazza is slumping. The Braves are back in first. The Cardinals are hot. And
the Giants have the best record in the league, with two (maybe three) very
compelling candidates.
So now that MVP race is a real race again. We've surveyed several
coaches and scouts on their picks. Here's a look at the top candidates:
Piazza
There's no question he makes the Mets' entire lineup work. But guess
who isn't in the top five in any major offensive category?
Piazza is sixth in the league in batting, seventh in homers, 12th in
RBI. If you're a fan of OPS (on-base percentage, plus slugging), he ranks
eighth in that.
But you can certainly argue Piazza's effect on the Mets is bigger
than any of his numbers. He's the one guy who walks to the plate and makes
the opposing pitcher think he'd rather eat the baseball than throw it. He
gets huge hits. And he hits unhittable pitches out of the park.
"In that whole lineup," says one NL coach, "he and Alfonzo are the
only two guys who hit good pitching. Everyone else can be pitched to."
But Piazza's 4-for-20 September, with one RBI (on a solo homer last
Monday), has made the voters think about the rest of the field. And the
other question on Piazza is: How much do his defensive shortcomings hurt
him?
He has thrown out only 30 of 130 base-stealers this year (23.1
percent) -- fourth-worst percentage of any regular catcher. Even Todd Hundley
(24.7 percent) is better. And one observer says: "I watch him throw, and I
think his arm must be killing him. He's lobbing the ball to second base
between innings, and he's wearing a sleeve on his elbow."
If the Mets rebound -- and they should -- and Piazza hits a dramatic
homer or three against the Braves -- which he might -- he goes right back to
the top of this list. But he's no automatic choice anymore.
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The reason I couldn't vote for Barry (Bonds) is: His
teammates hate him. They do. He's a hell of a player. I'd never deny that.
But his teammates don't like the guy. And it's his own fault. He brings it
on himself.
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An NL source
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Jeff Kent
He's third in the league in RBI, fifth in total bases, sixth in
hits and runs scored, eighth in average and doubles, 10th in OPS. And except
for a rough July (.234), he has been a rock of stability for the Giants all
year long.
He's driven in 13 more runs than Piazza, 25 more than his teammate,
Barry Bonds. And he's a quiet leader on a team that plays the game as hard
every day as any on earth.
Numbers aside, the people we survey still think Piazza is a better,
more dangerous hitter. But as one coach said, "Jeff Kent plays his position
better than Piazza plays his. You have to take that into consideration when
you pick this thing, don't you?"
For what it's worth, Kent has hit .414 against the Mets, .424
against the Braves, .304 against the Diamondbacks. Piazza has hit .333
against the Braves, .467 against the Giants, .407 against the Diamondbacks,
.348 against the Cardinals. So you can't accuse either of them of not coming
up big when it counts.
Bonds
One of the toughest questions voters will have to answer when they
look at the Giants is: Who's their real MVP -- Bonds or Kent?
Again, Bonds has driven in 25 fewer runs than Kent. But he's first
in the league in walks, second in slugging, on-base percentage and OPS, and
fourth in runs scored. And Kent's contributions aside, it's Bonds who is
clearly the Giants' best player, from a standpoint of pure ability.
As our colleague, Dave Campbell, points out, when you look at those
RBI totals, how much do you consider the fact that Kent has 157 at-bats with
runners in scoring position -- to Bonds' 95 at-bats (plus 42 walks)?
Still, Kent has hit .357 with men in scoring position, to Bonds'
.295. And there are other forces at work.
"The reason I couldn't vote for Barry," says one NL source, "is: His
teammates hate him. They do. He's a hell of a player. I'd never deny that.
But his teammates don't like the guy. And it's his own fault. He brings it
on himself."
When Bonds was asked recently by a visiting reporter whether he
would vote for Kent for MVP, he said -- within clear earshot of Kent: "Jeff
Kent ain't nothing without me." And no one around him laughed.
How good a teammate do you have to be off the field to be an MVP? That's a
question every voter will have to answer for himself. But Bonds sure gets no
extra points for that.
Jim Edmonds
He's had a monster year. No one questions that. He's third in the
league in runs scored, fifth in homers, seventh in walks, 11th in OPS.
But he's also hit .231 in the second half, without Mark McGwire's
presence around him. And the consensus of people we've talked to is that
McGwire was the Cardinals' real MVP -- the reason they built that big lead in
the first three months, a lead they've simply had to maintain without him.
Edmonds has hit .275 with runners in scoring position and only .111
with the bases loaded. On the other hand, he's one of the best
center fielders alive. And he did have two of the biggest hits of the
Cardinals' second half last weekend, when he bombed two game-winning homers
against the Mets. And he hit .480 against the Reds this year.
He's a guy who deserves to be near the top of anyone's ballot. But
at the top? Not quite.
Todd Helton
If this were the player-of-the-year award, this would be your man.
He leads the league in hitting, slugging, on-base percentage,
doubles and hits. He's second in RBI and runs scored. He's fifth in walks,
seventh in homers. Even with his recent slide out of Ted Williams'
neighborhood, he's had one of the great seasons of modern times.
But when this scribe filled out his MVP ballot over the years, our
first consideration was to look at the standings and consider the context in
which guys put up their numbers. And the Rockies haven't had to play a truly
significant game in two months. So Helton would be in our top five. But he's
hurt by what has happened around him.
Others
Had the Dodgers hung in the race, Gary Sheffield would have been
close to the favorite. But they've been on the periphery for weeks.
Luis Gonzalez (who has as many extra-base hits as Bonds -- 70 -- and more than
any other prime-time candidate besides Helton) deserves some votes.
Andres Galarraga has been an inspiration to the Braves -- but not an
MVP. Nevertheless, if he, Chipper Jones or Andruw Jones do something heroic
in those Mets games, they could lift themselves in the voting.
Closers are always interesting candidates. And where would the
Giants be without Robb Nen, or the Mets without Armando Benitez?
And among guys having big years on noncontenders, Sammy Sosa, Jeff
Bagwell, Brian Giles and Vladimir Guerrero, among others, have had amazing
years. But they can't win.
So where does this stand right now? We'd give Piazza a slight lead
over Kent right now, with Bonds No. 3. But last year, Chipper won his MVP
award in the last two weeks of the season. And what do you know? That's
exactly where we are right now. So pay attention.
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List of the week
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When Jim Edmonds hit two game-ending home runs against the Mets in the same
series last weekend, he became only the 12th player in history to hit two
walkoff bombs in one series. The others, courtesy of SABR's David Vincent:
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Batter
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Year
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Opp.
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Dates
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A. Belle
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1995
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Tor.
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8/30, 31
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A. Davis
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1986
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Min.
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8/15, 16
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D. Dillard
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1962
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Det.
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7/4, 5
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F. Lynn
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1985
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Min.
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5/10, 11
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S. Musial
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1948
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NYN
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8/26, 28
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T.Paciorek
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1981
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NYA
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5/8, 9
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B. Ruth
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1922
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CHA
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8/18, 20
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R. Santo
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1966
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Atl.
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5/28, 29
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S. Sosa
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1996
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NYN
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5/3, 5
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B.Souchock
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1952
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NYA
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7/25, 26
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C.Washington
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1988
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Det.
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9/9, 11
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In Atlanta, Andy Ashby has made it clear to the
Braves he would love to stay. But rumors persist that Atlanta is Mike
Hampton's first choice. The question is whether the Braves can pay Hampton
more than they've paid Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine. And early indications are
that Hampton won't take anything less than Kevin Brown money.
The A's tried to hook up struggling closer Jason
Isringhausen with their greatest closer ever, Dennis Eckersley, when they
passed through Boston this week. But they were unable to find a time for the
two to meet. The A's are about ready to ease Isringhausen back into the
closer's role, after giving Jim Mecir four straight save opportunities.
It's hard to find anyone in baseball who thinks Lou
Piniella will be back in Seattle. Piniella's first choice is obviously Tampa
Bay. But Cincinnati is an outside possibility if Larry Rothschild keeps his
job.
Speaking of the Reds' job, it will be fascinating to
see how Jack McKeon's inevitable departure is handled. The Reds recently
appointed McKeon's son, Casey, as scouting director. Which would suggest a
peaceful resolution to an uncomfortable situation. But maybe not. The Reds'
hope is that McKeon would quietly play this well politically by retiring as
manager, instead of forcing the Reds to fire him. But McKeon continues to
act as if he has no intention of quitting. So this could still get ugly.
There are mixed signals on whether Bob Boone or third-base coach Ron Oester
loom as the most likely successor. And the Reds also have to sweat out how
Junior Griffey might react if his father isn't the choice. Stay tuned.
No manager has been in his current job longer than
Tom Kelly in Minnesota. And despite rumors that the Twins might consider a
change, indications are that Kelly will be back -- but GM Terry Ryan won't,
at least not in his current role.
Jason Kendall continues to dodge questions about his
future with the Pirates. And it looks more and more as if the club will have
to actively look into moving him this winter. The Padres would be first in
line, with the Dodgers not far behind.
Robb Nen's new contract means the Giants have about
$43 million committed to 11 players for next year, with Ellis Burks still
unsigned, and Shawn Estes and Rich Aurilia eligible for arbitration. How the
Giants maneuver their roster and payroll this winter will be fascinating to
watch. But GM Brian Sabean and assistant Ned Colletti are the most creative
money managers in the game.
Nen's contract was announced as a four-year deal.
But it's actually a two-year extension through 2002. After that, the two
option years are Nen's, not the club's.
Baseball people continue to buzz about the
Diamondbacks' financial mess. Their deferred contract obligations to Matt
Williams, Randy Johnson, Todd Stottlemyre, Jay Bell, Tony Womack, Steve
Finley and Luis Gonzalez come to almost $88 million. And of that group, only
Womack (who turns 31 this month) is younger than 33.
One scout told us recently: "The Red Sox have a
$90-million payroll, and outside of Nomar and Everett, there isn't one
hitter in their lineup I'd even want." Remember, the Red Sox have scored
almost 200 fewer runs than the White Sox.
When we start discussing AL MVPs, don't forget
Tigers closer Todd Jones -- the No. 1 reason his team is even remotely in the
wild-card race. Asked this week where the Tigers would be without him,
manager Phil Garner replied: They're piping daylight to us somewhere in the
middle of the universe without him."
Useless information dept.
After watching two of the best in the business --
Todd Jones and Mariano Rivera -- load the bases before scrambling out of
those messes to get a save in the past week, we decided to create the Mitch
Williams Award. It goes to the closer who has loaded the bases in the most
saves this year. And it honors, of course, the one and only Wild Thing, who
managed to save 14 games in his distinguished career in which he loaded the
bases all by himself.
This year's leaders, courtesy of the Elias
Sports Bureau's Randy Robles:
Trevor Hoffman, 3
Jeff Brantley, 2
Ryan Kohlmeier, 2
While going for his 20th win, David Wells didn't
make it out of the second inning Monday. But believe it or not, he's the
third pitcher to have that happen since 1990. The others, according to
Elias: Rick Helling (1 1/3 innings, on Sept. 17, 1998, against the Angels)
and Mike Mussina (2 innings on the nose, on Sept. 19, 1996, in Yankee
Stadium).
The name-game event of the year occurred Wednesday
in Cincinnati, when the Mets hooked Bobby Jones from a start against the
Reds -- and relieved him with (who else?) the other Bobby Jones. It was the
first time in history one Bobby Jones had ever relieved another Bobby Jones,
but that's not all.
Research by the Mets showed that it was the
first time any pitcher since 1900 was relieved by another unrelated pitcher
with the same name. We know this because the only two other unrelated
pitchers with the same name -- the Bob Millers -- pitched in the same game
five times for the '62 Mets, but never one after the other.
The White Sox knocked out the opposing starter
(first Ramon Ortiz, then Rick Helling) in the first inning twice in four
days this week. But Elias' Ken Hirdt reports they're not the leaders in that
tremendous department (most opposing starters TKO'd in the first). The A's
have done it four times, the White Sox three, and the Mariners and Pirates
twice each. (For informational purposes, we must report that injury exits
counted in these standings.)
The Giants went into their game Friday with San
Diego having outscored their opponents by an amazing 174 runs this year -- an
average of 5.82 to 4.57 per game. The last time a Giants team outscored its
opponents by that big a margin, according to Elias' Kevin Hines: 1924, when
they went to the World Series and lost in seven games to the Senators.
One more offensive record that's about to fall this
week: In their 13-10 game Friday, the Cubs and Astros became the 492nd and
493rd teams to score 10 runs or more in a game this year. The record is 505,
set way back last year.
For the second time in his career, Mike Piazza
homered on his birthday this week. But he'd better get his Sept. 4 stroke
going if he's going to catch the active leader in birthday homers. That's
Jose Canseco, who has gotten a home-run trot for his birthday four times
already, according to the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David Vincent. The
all-time leader is Al Simmons, with five. Among the group with four:
Canseco, Lou Gehrig, Kirk Gibson, Joe Morgan, Lance Parrish, Tony Perez and
Duke Snider.
He might have hit a guy or two in between (check the
files). But Pedro Martinez actually went a whole month (Aug. 2 to Sept. 4)
without a walk until he broke that streak by walking Mark McLemore on
Monday. And who was the last hitter he'd walked before that? Mark McLemore.
Speaking of the Mariners, they managed to fail to
win seven consecutive series over the last several weeks and still be in
first place when that was over. Hard as that may seem to do, to find the
last team to do it, you need to go back only to 1998 -- when Elias reports
that the Padres failed to win their last nine series in a row (spanning the
entire month of September). And they still got to the World Series by then
winning two straight playoff series. Figure that out.
The Tigers might have needed smelling salts after
actually getting up to three games over .500 this week. They hadn't even
been two games over .500 at any point in five years. And before dropping
back to 70-70 Friday, they'd actually spent seven of the previous eight days
with a winning record. They'd spent four days above Mount .500 in the
previous four years -- and three of those four days were the first day of the
season.
Kansas City's Dan Reichert is up to 17 wild pitches.
Elias reports that's the most by any rookie since Hideo Nomo bounced 19 in
1995.
It's safe to say Jermaine Dye isn't Ryan Rupe's
favorite hitter. When Dye hit his second grand slam off Rupe this season
last weekend, it made him just the seventh player in history to hit two
slams off the same pitcher in the same year. The others, courtesy of Devil
Rays media-relations genius Rick Vaughn: Rudy York off Tex Shirley in 1947,
Gil Hodges off Jim Hearn in 1952, Ray Boone off Bob Cain in 1953, Daryl
Spencer off Clyde King in 1953, Steve Garvey off Clay Carroll in 1977, and
the all-timer -- Fernando Tatis off Chan Ho Park twice in the same inning in
1999.
And speaking of grand slams, anybody got an
explanation for Armando Benitez's fixation with them? The New York Times'
Tyler Kepner reports that opposing hitters are 4 for 4 off Benitez with the
bases loaded this year: three grand slams (Benito Santiago, Pat Burrell,
Preston Wilson) and a triple. In all other situations, opponents are hitting
.127 against Benitez.
Randy Johnson's loss Tuesday to the Braves broke one
of the most amazing streaks in baseball -- a 22-game winning streak in
regular-season games in September or October. Before the Braves beat him,
the Unit hadn't lost a game this time of year since Sept. 22, 1992 -- at
Kansas City. That covered a span of 27 starts and one relief appearance. And
his ERA in that streak, according to the Valley Tribune's Ed Price, was a
scary 1.90.
But of course, lots of strange stuff happened to
Johnson in that start in Atlanta. He gave up three home runs -- after
allowing three in his previous 52 innings. And two of them were to Chipper
Jones, who became the first hitter ever to have more than one multihomer
game against the Unit.
The only men who even had one two-homer game
against Johnson: Glenn Wilson (1988), Jesse Barfield (1990), Dave Henderson
(1993), Gerald Williams (1994), John Valentin (1997), Jim Edmonds (1997),
Greg Norton (1998), Javy Lopez (1999) and Kevin Young (1999).
Dave Martinez has had quite a year. For one thing,
he now has played against the Tigers for four different teams (Devil Rays,
Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays) in four different cities (Detroit, Chicago,
Arlington, Toronto) this year. Then there was Martinez's amazing 21-game
hitting streak in his first 21 games as a Blue Jay. His longest streak as a
Cub was two games. His longest streak as a Ranger was five games. And his
longest streak as a Devil Ray was four games.
SABR's Lee Sinins reports that Sammy Sosa already
has broken the National League record for most homers hit over every time
span from three years to eight years. Sosa's 176 homers over the last three
seasons mean he has averaged almost 59 home runs a year for three years. His
252 homers over the last five seasons mean he has averaged 50.4 for the last
five years. Ralph Kiner held the old records for most homers over six, seven
and eight seasons for nearly half a century. But Sosa already has blown away
Kiner's eight-year record (of 329) by 16 -- with two and a half weeks left in
the season.
Our Week in Review report on Colorado's Brent Mayne
becoming the first catcher since 1900 to win a game as a pitcher attracted a
lot of response -- including one dispatch from loyal reader Keith Olbermann.
He disputes the notion that Mayne was the first catcher to win a game since
Roger Bresnahan did it in 1897 -- for the simple reason that Bresnahan never
actually caught in the big leagues until three years later. The last real
catcher to win a game: King Kelly, for Boston of the old Players League, in
1890. Last in the National League: Buck Ewing, in 1889. And who will ever
forget that?
Well, the minor-league season is over. And if you've
been following Samone Peters' quest to break the 200-strikeout barrier down
there in Clinton, we regret to report he finished his season with 198.
Other astounding minor-league leaders, courtesy of Howe
Sportsdata: Hickory Crawdads shortstop Jose Castillo led the minors in
errors, with 60. Esix Snead finished with 109 stolen bases for Potomac. And
Juan Silvestre drove in 137 runs for Lancaster. Alex Cabrera's quest for the
minor-league triple crown got foiled by his promotion to the major leagues.
But he still led all minor-leaguers in home runs, with 39.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings will appear each Saturday. | |
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Stark: Week in Review
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