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Though Bud Selig still has to make the final call, ESPN has learned that baseball's investigation of Pete Rose's tax problems and casino visits appears to suggest that neither would be a significant enough issue to prevent Selig from reinstating Rose in the next few months.
A baseball official familiar with Rose's situation also told me Tuesday that while he would "be shocked" if Rose were reinstated before Opening Day, it's possible Rose will be allowed to attend Opening Day at Cincinnati's new ballpark under certain conditions.
There still is no set timetable for Selig to make a final decision on Rose's reinstatement. But another baseball official with knowledge of the case said that if there are no more setbacks, Selig is likely to clear the road for Rose's return sometime between Opening Day and the All-Star break.
According to baseball sources, here is where Rose's situation stands now:
A baseball official confirmed a report in Tuesday's New York Daily News that Rose is expected to meet with MLB's chief operating officer, Bob DuPuy, before Opening Day. That might result in Rose being allowed to attend the opener in Cincinnati, and it would be the prelude to a meeting later in the season between Rose and Selig.
After an MLB investigation, one source said there appeared to be a reasonable explanation for recent revelations that Rose owes the IRS more than $150,000 in back taxes. Baseball has all but determined that Rose is not being accused of tax evasion, and that his IRS debt is the result of a dispute over taxes owed from a business deal. The source said he doesn't believe the issue would be an impediment to Rose's reinstatement. But another source said Selig has yet to pass judgment on the matter.
Selig is still awaiting a copy of MLB's investigation of Rose's recent casino visits. However, one source said that Rose's biggest "crime" in this instance appears to be, essentially, bad judgment. While Selig is likely to admonish Rose for gambling, and being seen, in casinos, it is doubtful that would stand in the way of reinstatement, in and of itself.
A meeting between Selig and a group of living Hall of Fame players remains on hold. But a baseball official said Selig still would like to hold that meeting before making any final determination.
The Daily News story suggested Rose would have to admit to the accusations in the Dowd Report before Selig would reinstate him. However, a source familiar with the case said "there has never been a discussion of him acknowledging the Dowd Report." Rose would be required to admit he gambled on baseball, apologize for his conduct and apologize for the damage he did to the sport. But numerous sources have indicated he would not agree to admitting to all the charges in the Dowd Report.
If Rose is reinstated, he would still have to serve out a probationary period. At the end of that period, he would be allowed to have his name placed on the Hall of Fame ballot. However, sources said he was unlikely to be permitted to work in baseball immediately. His leeway for doing so might be phased in over time, or, more likely, the commissioner would have to approve before he could accept any job in baseball.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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