Last year, a reader asked me how the Top 50 prospects list published in my 1999 Stats Minor League Scouting Notebook broke down by player origin. I wrote up an article looking at the issue. The results were pretty interesting, so I decided to do it again this year, using the list from the 2000 book.
Keep in mind that this list of prospects is six months old. Stuff like injuries and poor play would result in slightly different rankings if I were to redo it today. For our purposes here, it doesn't really matter whether someone ranks second or 32nd on the list. The fact that they are listed here at all means they are a terrific prospect. I also included players listed as "honorable mention" on the list.
While the sample size is too small for us to draw valid conclusions, it does give us an interesting view into the mixture of talent available to major league clubs and where it comes from.
College hitters
|
Rank
|
Player, Pos.
|
Team
|
Round
|
College
|
|
3.
|
Pat Burrell, OF
|
Phillies
|
1st
|
Miami (Fla.)
|
|
30.
|
Matt LeCroy, C
|
Twins
|
1st (supp.)
|
Clemson
|
|
31.
|
Mike Lamb, 3B
|
Rangers
|
7th
|
Cal State Fullerton
|
|
43.
|
Lance Berkman, OF
|
Astros
|
1st
|
Rice
|
|
46.
|
Ben Broussard, OF
|
Reds
|
2nd
|
McNeese State
|
|
49.
|
Adam Piatt, 3B
|
Athletics
|
8th
|
Mississippi State
|
A solid group of talent. Burrell is just getting started; LeCroy will be fine assuming the Twins are patient with him. Lamb is now the starting third baseman in Texas, after booting the job in spring training. Berkman is proving he can hit in the majors and has made Moises Alou expendable. Broussard is injured right now but was ripping the ball in Double-A, while Piatt is waiting for a slot to open in Oakland. I'm 100 percent confident all of these guys are going to be fine players if they stay healthy. Note the success of picks in the seventh and eighth round, as well as the fact that five of the six came from high-profile college programs.
College pitchers
|
Rank
|
Player, Pos.
|
Team
|
Round
|
College
|
|
7.
|
Kip Wells, RHP
|
White Sox
|
1st
|
Baylor
|
|
17.
|
Matt Riley, LHP
|
Orioles
|
3rd
|
Sacramento CC
|
|
20.
|
Ed Yarnall, LHP
|
Yankees
|
3rd
|
Louisiana State
|
|
34.
|
Aaron Myette, RHP
|
White Sox
|
1st (Supp.)
|
Central Arizona JC
|
|
HM
|
Mike Meyers, RHP
|
Cubs
|
26th
|
Black Hawk JC
|
This group has a different flavor than the college hitters. There is just one pure first-rounder present, and only two guys from four-year colleges. These things run in cycles; several of the college pitchers drafted this week will show up on top prospect lists soon enough.
As for these guys, I think Wells is going to be fine, and I also like Yarnall, Myette, and Meyers, though they have yet to establish themselves in the majors. I have questions about Riley's aptitude for pitching, though you have to love his live arm.
High school hitters
|
Rank
|
Player, Pos.
|
Team
|
Round
|
State
|
|
1.
|
Corey Patterson, CF
|
Cubs
|
1st
|
Georgia
|
|
4.
|
Vernon Wells, CF
|
Blue Jays
|
1st
|
Texas
|
|
5.
|
Nick Johnson, 1B
|
Yankees
|
1st
|
California
|
|
6.
|
Dee Brown, LF
|
Royals
|
1st
|
New York
|
|
8.
|
Ben Petrick, C
|
Rockies
|
2nd
|
Oregon
|
|
9.
|
Sean Burroughs, 3B
|
Padres
|
1st
|
California
|
|
10.
|
Michael Cuddyer, 3B
|
Twins
|
1st
|
Virginia
|
|
25.
|
Milton Bradley, OF
|
Expos
|
2nd
|
California
|
|
28.
|
Peter Bergeron, CF
|
Expos
|
4th
|
Massachusetts
|
|
32.
|
Josh Hamilton, OF
|
Devil Rays
|
1st
|
North Carolina
|
|
35.
|
Jack Cust, OF
|
Diamondbacks
|
1st
|
New Jersey
|
|
40.
|
Drew Henson, 3B
|
Yankees
|
3rd
|
Michigan
|
|
41.
|
Chad Hermansen, OF
|
Pirates
|
1st
|
Nevada
|
|
42.
|
Mike Restovich, OF
|
Twins
|
2nd
|
Minnesota
|
|
45.
|
Adam Dunn, OF
|
Reds
|
2nd
|
Texas
|
|
47.
|
Chip Ambres, OF
|
Marlins
|
1st
|
Texas
|
|
50.
|
Travis Dawkins, SS
|
Reds
|
2nd
|
South Carolina
|
|
HM
|
Hank Blalock, 3B
|
Rangers
|
3rd
|
California
|
|
HM
|
B.J. Garbe
|
Twins
|
1st
|
Washington
|
One of the key factors in evaluating prospects is age relative to league and performance. For this reason, high school products often show up in the Top 50 each year. On the other hand, they also have a higher burnout rate than the college players. While I'm totally confident in the college hitters listed above, I have questions about several of these high school guys.
Patterson, Wells, Brown, Bradley, Hermansen, Restovich, Ambres, and Garbe have all struggled at times this season, while Burroughs, Cuddyer, and Petrick have merely held their own. Johnson has been injured. Don't get me wrong; most of these guys are going to turn into fine, if not outstanding, players. But the level of uncertainty is higher compared to the college products.
A lot of first and second rounders are present, although one of my favorites, Hank Blalock, was just a third-round pick. There is a good geographical mix.
High school pitchers
|
Rank
|
Player, Pos.
|
Team
|
Round
|
State
|
|
2.
|
Rick Ankiel, LHP
|
Cardinals
|
2nd
|
Florida
|
|
13.
|
Brad Penny, RHP
|
Marlins
|
5th
|
Oklahoma
|
|
22.
|
Ryan Anderson, LHP
|
Mariners
|
1st
|
Michigan
|
|
24.
|
John Patterson, RHP
|
Diamondbacks
|
1st
|
Texas
|
|
37.
|
A.J. Burnett, RHP
|
Marlins
|
8th
|
Arkansas
|
|
44.
|
Wes Anderson, RHP
|
Marlins
|
14th
|
Arkansas
|
|
48.
|
Josh Beckett, RHP
|
Marlins
|
1st
|
Texas
|
Ankiel is obviously the class of this group, though Penny and Ryan Anderson aren't far behind. Ankiel had first-round talent, but fell to the second round because of his bonus demands. Like their high school hitting counterparts, the failure rate among high school pitchers is high, especially due to injury. Patterson blew out his elbow a few weeks ago, while both Burnett and Beckett have missed time to injuries this year. Note that the Marlins, who have been collecting young pitchers like children collect Pokèmon, have four of the players listed. Watch out for Wes Anderson; he is a major sleeper.
Notice the absence of California products. Arkansas places two guys on the list, an interesting result from a smaller state.
Foreign free agents
|
Rank
|
Player, Pos.
|
Team
|
Country
|
|
11.
|
D'Angelo Jimenez, SS
|
Yankees
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
12.
|
Ruben Mateo, CF
|
Rangers
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
14.
|
Chin-Feng Chen, OF
|
Dodgers
|
Taiwan
|
|
15.
|
Rafael Furcal, SS
|
Braves
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
16.
|
Eric Gagne, RHP
|
Dodgers
|
Canada
|
|
18.
|
Hee Seop Choi, 1B
|
Cubs
|
South Korea
|
|
19.
|
Wilfredo Rodriguez, LHP
|
Astros
|
Venezuela
|
|
21.
|
Ramon Ortiz, RHP
|
Angels
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
23.
|
Alfonso Soriano, SS
|
Yankees
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
26.
|
Jesus Colome, RHP
|
Athletics
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
27.
|
Ramon Hernandez, C
|
Athletics
|
Venezuela
|
|
29.
|
Abraham Nunez, OF
|
Marlins
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
33.
|
Tony Armas, RHP
|
Expos
|
Venezuela
|
|
36.
|
Francisco Cordero, RHP
|
Rangers
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
38.
|
Luis Rivera, RHP
|
Braves
|
Mexico
|
|
39.
|
Junior Guerrero, RHP
|
Royals
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
HM
|
Wascar Serrano, RHP
|
Padres
|
Dominican Republic
|
There were 14 free agents on last year's list; that grew to 17 this year. The Dominican obviously remains a hot-bed of talent, though Venezuela continues to make strides. Asian players are starting to appear, a reflection of Major League Baseball's growing interest in that still largely untapped region.
I think the main thing this list does is point out the growing reliance of North American teams on foreign talent. As the world economy moves towards globalization, so does Major League Baseball. You can bet the calls for a world-wide draft will get stronger over the next few years, since fewer and fewer teams are able (or willing) to fork out top dollar to every promising player on the open market. | |
ALSO SEE
Sickles' analysis
 |
