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| Tuesday, January 16 | |||||||||
| Toronto Blue Jays ESPN.com | |||||||||
What went right? First baseman Carlos Delgado continued to establish himself as one of the game's most productive hitters, and might have been the American League's MVP if the Blue Jays had earned a postseason berth. Pitcher David Wells co-led the American League with 20 wins. What went wrong? The Blue Jays got almost nothing at the plate from their second basemen. Homer Bush, who hit .320 in 1999, batted just .215 before going on the DL at the end of July with a broken hand. A few days later, the Jays traded for Mickey Morandini, who totaled three extra-base hits and seven walks in 35 games. A bigger problem was the pitching; specifically, the young starting pitching. Chris Carpenter went from a 4.38 ERA in 1999 to a 6.26 ERA in 2000. Roy Halladay went from a 3.92 ERA in 2000 to a 10.64 ERA in 2000. Largely as a result of the young starters' struggles, Toronto ranked tied for 10th in the American League in ERA (5.14). In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. The Jays entered the 2000 season thinking they might ride the live young arms of Halladay, Kelvim Escobar and Peter Munro to success. Instead, the youngsters all flopped (more on that below). 2. In the summer of 1999, the Blue Jays traded lefty reliever Dan Plesac to Arizona for Tony Batista, in what might be remembered as one of the more lopsided trades ever. After joining the Jays, the one-time shortstop shifted to third base and hit 26 homers in 98 games. And in 2000, Batista proved that he was anything but a fluke, cranking out 41 homers for the Jays. Looking ahead to 2001 Three key questions 1. Who's in the rotation? Mike Sirotka becomes the new No. 1 guy. But after him comes Joey Hamilton, limited to six starts last year by a shoulder injury, and then a bunch of question marks like Chris Carpenter and Steve Parris. (Frank Castillo, Toronto's second-best starter last season, signed a free-agent deal with Boston.) 2. What's on second? Homer Bush will presumably return from his injury, but last season he was awful before he got hurt. The Jays have only one legitimate superstar hitter -- Batista doesn't get on base enough -- so they can't really afford to just punt a position. 3. Will 2001 be Jose Cruz's breakout year? Cruz will never be a great hitter; after 477 games, his career batting average is just .245. But last season, Cruz hit 31 home runs and drew 71 walks. He'll be 27 this season, and still has a chance to become one of the best center fielders in the game.
Whoever's playing second base can't be worse than Bush and Morandini were last season. Raul Mondesi played well when healthy, but spent most of August and September on the DL. Given the quality of Toronto's lineup, if healthy Mondesi figures to both score and drive in more than 100 runs in 2001. Can expect to play worse It's awfully hard to imagine Delgado duplicating last season's numbers, though of course he still figures as one of the game's most productive first baseman. Projected lineup LF Shannon Stewart CF Jose Cruz Jr. 1B Carlos Delgado 3B Tony Batista DH Brad Fullmer RF Raul Mondesi C Darrin Fletcher SS Alex Gonzalez 2B Homer Bush Rotation/Closer Mike Sirotka Joey Hamilton Esteban Loaiza Chris Carpenter Steve Parris Billy Koch A closer look Ask nearly anyone why the Toronto Blue Jays finished in third place in the AL East, and the answer you'll hear is, "Their pitching wasn't good enough." And that's true. But what a lot of people don't know is that Toronto's hitting wasn't good enough, either.
Chi Cle Oak Sea Tor
Runs Rk 1 2 3 4 8
HR Rank 5 4 2 7 1
Walks Rk 7 3 2 1 13
Yes, the Blue Jays hit 244 home runs, tops in the American League. The
problem was, not enough runners were on base when the Jays hit their home
runs. Their .275 batting average was right in the middle of the AL pack, but
because they ranked No. 13 in walks, the Jays ranked just 10th in on-base
percentage. And if you finish 10th in OBP, you're probably not going to
score enough runs to win. The Blue Jays ranked eighth in run production,
behind all four American League postseason teams (in addition to the three
in the above chart, the Yankees ranked sixth in run production).
Now, back to the pitching. Toronto ranked tied for 10th in the AL with a 5.14 ERA.
Needless to say, all of the AL postseason teams did better than that, too.
And if you're a Blue Jays fan looking for scapegoats, you can start with the
club's young starting pitchers, who performed horribly last season ...
Starts W-L ERA
25 or Younger 70 19-33 6.94
28 or Older 92 40-26 4.02
Most of the "25 or Younger" starts were made by three pitchers: Chris
Carpenter (27 starts, 8-12 with a 6.55 ERA), Kelvim Escobar (24 starts,
7-13, 5.42), and Roy Halladay (13 starts, 4-6, 11.10).
Carpenter's struggles were fairly inexplicable, as he'd posted a 4.37 ERA in
1998 and a 4.38 ERA in 1999. Escobar, on the other hand, hasn't pitched well
since shifting from the bullpen to the rotation in 1999. In fact, his 5.35
ERA last season (including reliever work) was actually slightly better than
his 5.69 mark in '99. And then there's Roy Halladay, who's never been as
good as the hype. While Halladay does have a great arm, he's never posted
good strikeout ratios, even in the minors. While no pitcher is really as bad
as he was last season -- 10.64 ERA, including his six relief outings --
Halladay has never done anything to suggest that he's a quality big-league
starter.
The Blue Jays won't enter the 2001 season counting on their young starters
for nearly as much as they did a year ago. Wells anchors the rotation, with
veterans Esteban Loaiza and Joey Hamilton holding down the No. 2 and 3
spots. Still, if the Jays are to contend, they'll need something from
their youngsters, which is more than they got last year.
New manager Buck Martinez will, I suspect, be lauded in the press for his
intensity, his take-no-prisoners style of leadership. But if Martinez
succeeds, it won't be because he gets more hustle from his players. If
Martinez succeeds, it'll be because he gets more walks from his hitters, and
more quality innings from his young pitchers.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His baseball column runs three
times per week from November through February. | ALSO SEE Blue Jays minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters AthletesDirect: Carlos Delgado's official Web site AthletesDirect: Shannon Stewart's official Web site | ||||||||
Dave Stewart stuck his neck out to get Joey Hamilton because they were together in San Diego and Hamilton has been a washout since he got to Toronto. He missed most of last year with shoulder problems and has a bit of a fragile psyche to begin with so he needs a lot of coddling. For Buck Martinez to have any shot, Hamilton needs to come into spring training ready to pitch in mind and body. Hamilton is making a lot of money, it's time he contributed to this team.