The Numbers
	2002 record: 56-106, .346 (28th overall) Runs scored: 627, 16th in NL Runs allowed: 821, 15th in NL Run differential: -194 (28th overall) Starters' ERA: 5.18, 15th in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.88, 10th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $50.3 million (21st overall) Attendance: 1.97 million (19th overall) 3-year record: 197-289, .405 (29th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Not even Karl Rove can spin a 106-loss season, but there were a few bright spots. Shortstop Jose Hernandez and first baseman Richie Sexson combined for 53 homers. Outfielder Alex Sanchez hit .289 with 37 steals, while second baseman Eric Young swiped 31. The bullpen was a strong point, led by Mike DeJean (27 saves, 3.12 ERA), Luis Vizcaino (2.99 ERA), Ray King (3.05), Valerio de los Santos (3.12), and Jayson Durocher (1.88). Starter Ben Sheets fanned 170 men in 217 innings.

What went wrong?
Most things. Attendance dropped sharply. The roof on Miller Park still leaks. Both the hitting and the starting pitching were substandard. Injuries struck Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and Nick Neugebauer. Manager Davey Lopes was fired on April 18th after a 3-12 start. His replacement, Jerry Royster, was unable to right the ship, leading the club to a dismal 53-94 record.

Jeffrey Hammonds and Glendon Rusch were frustratingly inconsistent, while Ruben Quevedo and Jamey Wright were just plain awful. Hernandez struck out 188 times and was only saved from setting a strikeout record by Royster's refusal to play him in the final days. GM Dean Taylor was canned in September, while Brewers president Wendy Selig-Prieb resigned. New GM Doug Melvin decided not to retain Royster. Although the rookie manager could hardly be blamed for all that went wrong, he took the news well. "I'd fire me, too" was Royster's comment.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Relying on the injury-plagued and erratic Hammonds to hold down the No. 3 spot in the order. Signed to a large free agent contract in '01, Hammonds has been a huge disappointment, tying down $7 million in salary while posting just a .729 OPS last year. Hammonds is useful when healthy and kept within his limits, but making him a centerpiece of the team was a blunder. Taylor did a lot of good things as Brewers GM, but this one decision did as much as anything else to cost him his job.

	Jeffrey Hammonds Outfielder Milwaukee Brewers Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 128 448 47 9 41 .257

2. Giving up, though this was done in stages. When it became obvious that the team was going nowhere under his leadership, Lopes was dumped. When that didn't work, Taylor fully committed to a youth movement and started to ship off veterans for prospects. It was the right thing to do, although force-feeding unready kids like Bill Hall, Ben Diggins, Dave Pember, and Matt Childers late in the season was done for publicity reasons according to critics, and could have a negative impact on their development.

3. Did Nick Neugebauer have any business making 12 starts? He was rehabbing from injury, and his control is still awful. Sticking him in Triple-A would have been a more prudent course of action. Granted, he was actually one of the more effective Milwaukee starters, posting a 4.72 ERA, but the Brewers would have lost 100 games with or without him, and the move could be a long-term backfire, if only because it burned service time.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. Can the Brew Crew find value in retreads? White Sox failures Todd Ritchie and Royce Clayton have been brought in to fill roster spots until kids are ready. Clayton is certainly an offensive downgrade compared to Hernandez, and many people think his defense is overrated. Ritchie was awful last year, but injury problems were at least part of that. If he's even an average pitcher this year, he gives the Brewers a veteran presence behind Sheets and Rusch, plus he takes some pressure off the youngsters.

The downside of this is that Melvin must avoid the temptation to continue shipping in retread vets if the current ones actually play well. Patching a hole with a vet is defensible expedient, if temporary. Over-reliance on guys like Clayton and Ritchie is suicidal in the long run for a team like the Brewers. If they do play well, trading them to a contender for prospects later in the season must be a priority. Dave Mlicki and John Vander Wal, also free agent signees, are in the same category.

2. Can they get use out of "free talent." Melvin made a nifty little trade with Minnesota this winter, picking up pitcher Matt Kinney and catcher Javier Valentin, excess talent on the Twins roster, for a pair of A-ball pitchers. Both could play significant roles, Kinney especially. Outfielder Brady Clark, picked up on waivers, could be a solid reserve outfielder, and free agent signee Chuck Smith has had his moments of success in the majors. Mining talent like this will be a key for the rebuilding project; it's something that the successful small and medium-revenue teams have learned to do.

3. New manager Ned Yost. Long-time Milwaukee fans are familiar with him as a reserve catcher and 1982 pennant contributor. This is his first major league managerial job, and all the normal questions have to be answered: how will he handle the pitching staff? The lineup? The clubhouse? Will he throw things at reporters? Etc.

Stats Corner
Ben Sheets (above) topped the Brewers in wins (11), innings pitched (216.2) and strikeouts (170) in 2002. Richie Sexson had 102 RBI, the third time in the last four years he's driven in 100 or more. Glendon Rusch made 34 starts, giving him three straight seasons in which he's made 30 or more starts. Eric Young was far better playing at the friendly confines of Miller Park (.293 batting average with 23 stolen bases) than he was on the road (.267 BA with eight steals).

Can expect to play better
Sheets. He posted a 4.03 ERA in the second half, and could be just a few adjustments away from emerging as a true ace starter. Hammonds and Jenkins are capable of better if healthy, though counting on them to do so is risky. Sexson is just 28 and only one season removed from a 45-homer campaign.

Can expect to play worse
So many guys played poorly last year that it's hard to pick out a serious candidate to get worse. The bullpen could slide a bit. Young is 35 years old, always a dangerous age.

Projected lineup
CF Alex Sanchez
2B Eric Young
1B Richie Sexson
LF Geoff Jenkins
RF Jeffrey Hammonds/John Vander Wal when Hammonds has his inevitable injury
3B Wes Helms
SS Royce Clayton
C Robert Machado/Javier Valentin

Rotation
Ben Sheets
Glendon Rusch
Todd Ritchie
Nick Neugebauer
Matt Kinney/Dave Mlicki/Ben Diggins/Wayne Franklin

Closer
Mike DeJean

A closer look
The biggest problem facing the 2003 Brewers is that they are not that much different than the 2002 Brewers. Oh, the roster has shifted a bit. But this is still a team with a weak offense and shaky pitching.

Of the holdover hitters, Richie Sexson and Geoff Jenkins are certainly capable of increasing their output. Jeffrey Hammonds is dicier, but if healthy he could hit closer to his career .795 OPS rather than the .729 mark he put up last year. Still not outstanding, but a little better. The problem here is that any improvement from this trio is likely to be cancelled out by the replacement of Jose Hernandez with Royce Clayton, or possibly a decline from an aging Eric Young.

Of the new faces, Javier Valentin has more offensive ability than the man he replaces, Paul Bako. He's an adequate hitter, as opposed to a poor one. New third baseman Wes Helms, over from Atlanta, replaces the Lenny Harris/Tyler Houston/Mark Loretta/Ron Belliard combination from last year. Brewers third basemen hit .279/.342/.414 in '02. Helm's career marks are .234/.287/.423. Granted, playing full time will likely help him do better, but it's entirely possible that Helms won't be any better than the old combo. And as mentioned above, Clayton is not nearly the hitter Hernandez is. The new faces don't represent a major upgrade.

The pitching staff could be better, if Todd Ritchie rebounds, and if the Brewers get something out of Dave Mlicki, and if rookies like Ben Diggins and Wayne Franklin contribute, and if Neugebauer is healthy. And even if some of those ifs come true, the bullpen will have to hold up, otherwise improvements in the rotation would be counteracted by a decline in relief.

Are the Brewers doomed to another 100-loss season? Of course not. We're not trying to be overly negative here. Even average work out of some of the new faces and a slight improvement from the holdovers will help. The point is that there is no quick fix to the situation in Milwaukee. This is a multi-year rebuilding effort. Good years from the current roster will get the record closer to .500, but barring some spectacular development, getting past that will be very difficult with the current group.

In the long run, the key will be building the farm system. Former general manager Dean Taylor's administration made a good start at that, and current GM Doug Melvin had a good farm track record in Texas. Milwaukee fans should place their hopes for the future not in the Royce Claytons of the world, but in the Mike Joneses and Brad Nelsons.

Hopefully, the Brewers front office has the same perspective.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.