ESPN.com - MLB Playoffs 2001 - Five questions: Atlanta-Arizona

Monday, October 15
Updated: October 16, 3:23 AM ET
 
Five questions: Atlanta-Arizona

By Tim Kurkjian
ESPN The Magazine

If you like 2-1 and 3-2 games, this series is definitely for you. It's the Diamondbacks and Braves, dueling Cy Youngs, in the National League Championship Series. The only downside is that the brilliant Curt Schilling was so busy carrying his team past the Cardinals in the Division Series, he won't start until Game 3. Otherwise, this series can't miss.

Here are five questions.

1. How good is Arizona's starting pitching?
With some help from their bullpen, the D-Backs limited the Cardinals to just two hits in 33 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the Division Series; St. Louis got back-to-back hits once in five games.

Schilling has become one of the best postseason pitchers in recent history. He was one pitch away (how did J.D. Drew hit that ball out with that swing anyway?) from joining Whitey Ford and Christy Mathewson as the only pitchers to throw three straight shutouts in postseason play.

Randy Johnson's seven straight losses marks the longest postseason losing streak in history, but he's capable of changing that with a 15-strikeout shutout. Game 2 starter Miguel Batista, a published poet who quotes Walt Whitman and Tom Seaver in the same sentence, pitched very well to win Game 3 against St. Louis. They'll need something much better from probable Game 4 starter Albie Lopez, who was awful in Game 4 against St. Louis. Remember, Lopez was 9-19 this year in the regular season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Lopez was the only pitcher ever to start a postseason game in a season in which he finished 10 games under .500. The only other pitcher to start a postseason game with at least 19 losses was George Mullin in 1907. He lost 20 games -- and won 20 -- that year.

If the D-Backs get behind in this series, look for Johnson to come back on short rest to pitch Game 4.

2. How much better is Atlanta's bullpen than Arizona's?
Much better. "This is the best pen we've had here," says Braves manager Bobby Cox. John Smoltz has developed into a quality closer who throws 97 mph. His top three set-up guys, Steve Karsay, Mike Remlinger and Steve Reed, are better than Arizona's best set-up guy, largely because the Diamondbacks don't have one. Diamondbacks closer Byung-Hyun Kim has incredible stuff, but he's only 22, and looked shaky in getting a critical save in Game 3 against the Cardinals. The D-Backs had 34 saves this year, fewest by an NL playoff team (full season) since the 1979 Phillies. But Arizona has mixed and matched its bullpen all year and survived. In the NLDS, they used Batista, their Game 3 starter, in relief in Game 2. According to Elias, it was the first time since 1957 that a pitcher was used in relief in one postseason game, and started the next. The last time it happened that early in a series was 1924.

3. Can the Braves score enough runs to win?
They released their first baseman (Rico Brogna) and their second baseman (Quilvio Veras) in July. They lost their shortstop (Rafael Furcal) for the season in early July. So, against Randy Johnson in Game 1, they'll start a 40-year-old (Julio Franco) signed from the Mexican League at first base, a rookie (Marcus Giles) at second and a journeyman (Paul Bako) behind the plate -- and he hits left-handed!

They're hoping that Javy Lopez's left ankle has healed enough to put him on the roster for the NLCS. They need all the offensive help they can get. The Braves have never been a great offensive club in their 10-year run in the postseason, and this year is no exception. A lot of the load will go to Chipper Jones, who is up to the task, especially against Johnson. He has six home runs in 21 career at-bats against the Big Unit. That's ties (along with Shane Reynolds) for his most homers off any pitcher.

4. Can the Diamondbacks score enough runs to win?
In the five-game NLDS, they scored 10 runs. According to Elias, the only other team in postseason history to win a series of at least five games, scoring 10 or fewer runs, was the 1918 Red Sox, who won the World Series scoring nine runs in six games. Arizona used four different fourth-place hitters in five games in the Division Series (the '61 Yankees used four different cleanup men in the World Series, but one was Mickey Mantle) because they don't have a cleanup hitter. But just when you think the Diamondbacks will never score again, they do. They won Game 3 against St. Louis on a three-run homer by Craig Counsell, who had never hit a home run (220 regular season at-bats) against a left-hander before, and who had driven in a total of five runs this season against left-handers. The game-winning hit in Game 5 was supplied by Tony Womack off one of the best left-handers in the game in Steve Kline. This season against left-handers, Womack batted .188 with two RBI in 96 at-bats.

5. What does the season series tell us?
The Braves lost five out of the seven games they played against the D-Backs, including a three-game sweep at Turner Field on Aug. 10-12 (that was when the Braves were playing very badly).

Greg Maddux, the Braves' Game 1 starter was 0-2 in two starts against the Diamondbacks and allowed 21 hits and 13 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. The D-Backs put the hit-and-run on 11 times in the two games against Maddux, so look for them to be just as aggressive on the bases this time around.

Tom Glavine, the Game 2 starter, pitched well in his only start, but not as well as John Burkett, the Game 3 starter, who threw a shutout in his only start. Since all three Atlanta starters will be going on six days' rest, and since the Braves' bullpen is so deep, Cox says he's strongly considering going with three starters.

Arizona pitched very well in the seven games against Atlanta, holding the Braves to a .225 batting average. Schilling threw seven shutout innings. Johnson lost his only start, but pitched well (12 K's). Mark Grace batted .435 against the Braves and Steve Finley hit .393. Former Brave Reggie Sanders, who got some big hits in the Division Series, was 4-for-22 with no RBI, no walks and seven strikeouts against his old team.

There will be plenty of players struggling at the plate in this series.

Diamondbacks in seven

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and a regular contributor to Baseball Tonight.





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