ESPN.com - MLB Playoffs 2001 - Why the Yankees are in trouble

Monday, October 29
Updated: October 30, 9:35 AM ET
 
Why the Yankees are in trouble

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

They have just about cornered the market on been-there, done-that. So we know that to the New York Yankees, their only definition of an impossible comeback is down, 4 games to 0, with no games to play.

They aren't down, 4 games to 0, in this World Series, though. It just seems like it. But in reality -- and when you get right down to it, this is just another one of those gimmicky Fox reality shows -- the Yankees are actually only down, 2 games to 0, and heading for Yankee Stadium.

Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens went 20-3 this year, but hasn't beaten a winning team since June 2.

So this is the point in the script where the mighty Yankees are supposed to say they've got those unsuspecting Arizona Diamondbacks right where they want them.

Hey, right on cue. Here it comes:

"It's not like this is a situation we've never been in before," said Yankees pitcher Mike Stanton. "It's not like we don't know what this feels like. It's not like we don't know how to react.

"So look around. There's no panic in here. We know we have the talent to do this. We know we have the knowledge of how to get this done. Now we just have to go out and do it."

Ah, but there's the problem. Just because the Yankees once came back from another 0-2 mess to win the '96 World Series, and just because it was only three weeks ago that they came back from a worse 0-2 mess to beat the A's in the best-of-5 Division Series, does not mean it's safe to assume they're right on track to do it again.

Matter of fact, this time, they might be in the middle of a mess they can't clean up. And we'll tell you why with Five Reasons The Yankees Are In Trouble This Time (Really, Seriously, Not Just Looking For A Cheap Column).

1. These aren't the A's
There is one fundamental difference between the team the Yankees are playing in this World Series and the Oakland team they mugged a few weeks ago:

That Oakland team was straight out of Generation X. This Arizona team is more like out of Generation 401-K.

The A's ran no regulars out there over the age of 30. The Diamondbacks practically have an older cast than "60 Minutes." Eighteen of the 25 players on their roster are 30 or over -- and one of them (Mike Morgan) was in the big leagues three years before his manager (Bob Brenly).

"This is a different team than Oakland," said Randy Velarde, who ought to know -- because he played in Oakland himself until this year. "The A's were such a young team, we were really confident that if we could beat Barry Zito in Game 3, we could come back and beat (Mark) Mulder in New York.

"We can't play these games like we expect that to happen again. Maybe these guys (in Arizona) don't have the rings. But they don't have rookies over there. They've played a lot of games in their day. They're not going to get rattled by that Yankees atmosphere. I think that was the case with Oakland."

2. Aces Inc.
It's hard enough to win four out of five games in June or July, when Jose Lima and Brian Meadows are starting against you. How hard is it in October (not to mention November) if you have to face Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson at least twice, and very possibly three more times?

"We can't sit around and cry about that," said Derek Jeter. "We have to set our sights on Game 3. They're not just quality pitchers. They're the two best pitchers in baseball. But if you want to win, you have to beat the best. So we're confident we can beat them. If there's anyone in our clubhouse who doesn't feel we can win, he should go home."

Hey, they're the champs. They're supposed to believe. But this is the World Series. It's more than a positive-thinking seminar. And if you've watched these guys swing the bats these first two games, you know swinging isn't believing.

In 53 at-bats against Johnson and Schilling, the Yankees have hit .113. They went 10 innings, 31 hitters and 28 official at-bats between hits -- the longest hitless binge by any World Series team since the equally mighty '69 Orioles were on the way to getting upset by the Mets.

To find the last time any two starting pitchers overpowered a team to the tune of one run and six hits in the first two games of a World Series, you have to ride the time machine all the way back to 1939. That year, it was Red Ruffing and Monte Pearson of the Yankees doing exactly that to a Reds team that didn't know it was about to get swept.

And those numbers don't even tell the whole story. The Yankees have barely hit a ball hard in two games. Their attempts to grind out at-bats with that patented Yankees patience have just gotten them buried in a succession of pitchers' counts. The result: 19 strikeouts against the co-aces, just two walks.

That doesn't mean the Yankees can't or won't make adjustments. But remember that Schilling and Johnson lost in the same series exactly once all season -- in August against the Pirates. So good luck.

3. Slow bats
Before this World Series, we quoted an AL advance scout as saying the way to beat the Yankees was with power pitching. We checked back with the same scout after the first two games. You don't need to be a psychic to predict his first words:

"What did I tell you?"

"The Yankees don't handle power pitching," the scout said. "They're too old. The only guys who can are Soriano and, to a lesser extent, Jeter. Bernie can when he's hot. When he's hot, he can hit anybody. When he's not, you can get him out.

"I actually think (Miguel) Batista is very capable of beating them if they start him (in Game 4 or 5), because he's a power guy. That's the secret to beating them. These guys just don't have the bat speed."

The man these Yankees have relied on to bail them out of these crises in previous Octobers is Jeter, who carried a 14-game World Series hitting streak into this weekend. But not this year.

He's now 0-for-7 in this World Series, 2 for his last 24 (since Oakland left town) and raising questions about how healthy he is since kamikazi-ing over a railing to pull off one more defensive miracle in the Division Series finale.

Asked repeatedly about his physical condition after Game 2, Jeter said numerous times: "I'm fine."

Asked about the giant ice pack resting on his shoulder, he replied, grinning slightly: "That's just age, man."

When a New York writer observed that even if he weren't OK, he would never admit it, Jeter smiled again: "Yeah," he said. "But I'm fine."

Whether he is or isn't, he could use a little help. But Chuck Knoblauch is 0-for-8 in front of him. Soriano and Williams are 2-for-13 behind him. Paul O'Neill has gotten one at-bat in two games.

"They're dominating the whole team," Jeter said. "They're not just getting me out."

True. But which unit does that say more about -- Arizona's pitching or the state of a Yankees' lineup that has hit .229 this postseason?

4. Shaky depth
Once upon an October time, the Yankees were able to look down their bench and find a Darryl Strawberry here, a Chad Curtis there.

They always seemed to have a Cecil Fielder to run out there at first base against a left-hander. Or a Tim Raines or Chili Davis to grind out a tough at-bat late in the game.

Yet when it came time for the pivotal at-bat of Game 2 of this World Series -- two men on, one out in the eighth -- Joe Torre had to send up Luis Sojo, a man who had gotten a total of 13 at-bats in the last 10 weeks.

One double-play ball later, another devastating loss was three routine outs away.

"Every year, this time of year, we always seem to do the little things to win," Sojo said afterward. "This year, we don't."

But one reason they don't is because they used to be a team on which all the pieces fit. Now some of them don't fit anymore.

Consider what happened when Johnson pitched: Three of the Yankees' most dangerous bats -- O'Neill, David Justice and Tino Martinez -- didn't play, and couldn't play. They were 0-for-7 lifetime, with 6 strikeouts, against Johnson.

So Velarde started at first base for the 10th time in his career -- on the basis of the best career batting average against Johnson (.452) of any active player with 20 at-bats against him. But most of those at-bats were compiled years ago, when Velarde was a regular player and Johnson was a far more erratic pitcher than he was in this World Series moment.

And with Shane Spencer in to play right field because he, too, is a right-handed hitter, it left the Yankees with only one right-handed bat on the bench. That was Sojo, who was included on the postseason roster for almost sentimental reasons, while Gerald Williams and Nick Johnson were left off.

Torre undoubtedly will get O'Neill and Martinez back into the lineup for Game 3, even though the left-handed Brian Anderson will start for Arizona. But that same dysfunctional roster problem looms when Johnson surfaces again later in the Series. And then what?

"They have to find a way to beat Schilling, because they can't beat Johnson," said the AL advance scout. "Their left-handed hitters somehow have to catch up to Schilling, because the only they could possibly beat Randy is if Bernie gets hot. But if Randy gets his slider over, it doesn't matter if you hit left or right. He'd beat anybody."

5. The numbers
It may be true that the Yankees have done this before. It may be true that of the seven previous times the Yankees have lost the first two games of a World Series, they have come back to win it more times (four) than they have lost (three).

But that comeback by the '56 Yankees against Brooklyn's Boys of Summer won't help this group hit a 90-mph Randy Johnson slider. And all the other numbers suggest these guys are in a heck of a fix:

  • Of the last 10 teams to lose the first two games of a World Series, nine have gone on to lose. The '96 Yankees are the only exception.

  • To find the last time a team won the first two games at home and went on to lose the Series, knowing it had Games 6 and 7 back home, was 1981. That year, it was the Yankees doing the collapsing against the Dodgers. Previous teams in Arizona's situation have won 24 World Series and lost just seven.

  • Since 1985, teams with home-field advantage in the World Series have won 13 Series and lost just two. The only exceptions were the '92 Blue Jays and '99 Yankees. But both of those two teams regained home-field advantage by winning at least one of the first two games on the road.

  • Torre has put the onus on Roger Clemens in Game 3, saying, pointedly: "Roger's the key. Roger needs to go out and dominate like these two guys have." But Clemens is winless in three postseason starts, hasn't worked past the fifth in any of them and has beaten one team that finished with a winning record (the White Sox) since June 2.

  • History also suggests Clemens has been at his most dominating in postseason games in which his team hasn't been in this position. In 10 career starts when his team either trailed in a series or was tied, he's 1-4, with a 4.45 ERA, and his teams are 2-8 in those games. In nine starts when his team led a series, though, he is 4-2, 2.62, and his teams are 6-3.

    All of this could go out the picture window, of course, if Clemens cranks up a masterpiece in Game 3, the Yankees lock back in to their customary October invincibility and the well-behaved citizens of Yankee Stadium puncture a few Arizona eardrums.

    But if these Yankees are going to keep marching into history, they'll have to sweat it out all the way -- and beat a couple of pitchers they could barely even make contact against this weekend.

    "You know," said Jeter, "winning is not easy. We've made it look easy at times. But it's not."

    Right he is. And he and his pinstriped buddies now have an opportunity to prove that point to the world.

    Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.






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