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| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lineup analysis: NL East Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Atlanta Braves
Strengths Last season, the Braves' biggest problem with their lineup was a lack of on-base ability in their leadoff and No. 2 hitters, Gerald Williams and Bret Boone. As you would expect from the game's most consistently well-run franchise, the Braves met the problem head-on, letting Williams leave and trading Boone (and Ryan Klesko) to get a new pair of table-setters, Quilvio Veras (career OBP: .371) and Reggie Sanders (.356). Chipper Jones is the reigning MVP, and Andruw Jones may prove to be the NL's MVP of the new decade. If Javy Lopez and Andres Galarraga return to their pre-injury form, this is a much better lineup than the one that played in the World Series last year. And the Braves' pitching staff is consistently one of the best-hitting contingents in the league. Weaknesses Galarraga turns 39 in June, is returning from cancer, and has to fight the perception that most of his success has been fostered by a Mile High illusion. Neither Walt Weiss nor Ozzie Guillen provide any sock; heck, they don't even provide panty hose. Key In addition to the lingering concerns over Galarraga and Lopez, both Brian Jordan and Reggie Sanders have a history of breaking down. Sanders, in particular, has never played in more than 138 games. The Braves need all four players to play well and play often, as the Braves' bench has never been one of their strengths. Overall 1999: 840 runs, just 7th in the NL. 2000: With better performances from the top of the lineup and a breakout season from Andruw Jones, the Braves should score more runs even if Galarraga can't hack it. 870 runs, and this year they'll outscore the Mets. Easily. Florida Marlins
Strengths Luis Castillo began to turn into a prototype leadoff hitter last season, with a .384 OBP and 50 steals. Cliff Floyd is a terrific hitter if he can stay healthy. Mike Lowell hit 12 homers in half a season, but showed his power most of all simply by returning to the field while recovering from testicular cancer. Preston Wilson and Alex Gonzalez were among the NL's top five rookie hitters, and Mark Kotsay is still young enough to develop into a top right fielder. Weaknesses When you finish last in the league in homers, and next-to-last in walks, your lineup has problems. Kotsay and Derrek Lee have been huge disappointments so far, and both Gonzalez and Wilson have a terrible time telling the balls from the strikes, making it difficult for them to build on last year's success. For all the Marlins' rebuilding efforts, the fact is that none of their hitters have any real superstar potential, and there aren't any can't-miss hitting prospects on the farm. Key player Kotsay was an awesome collegiate hitter and hit well in the minor leagues, but has now struggled in back-to-back seasons with the Fish. He's a Gold Glove-caliber right fielder and is younger than Sean Casey; the Marlins need him to start hitting like Casey, because Kotsay represents their best bet at developing a true No. 3 hitter. Overall 1999: 691 runs, worst in the NL. 2000: Lowell and Kotsay should be better, but Wilson can't be expected to hit 26 homers again. Look for about the same number of runs, which may keep them out of the cellar if the Cubs, Brewers, or Padres pass them on the way down. Montreal Expos
*Triple-A numbers Strengths Vladimir Guerrero rocks. No rookie in baseball fills a need for his team's lineup more perfectly than Peter Bergeron, who replaces Manny Martinez as the team's center fielder and moves Rondell White out of the leadoff spot for which he was ill-suited. Michael Barrett should improve on his rookie season, now that he can concentrate on playing just one position. Weaknesses Does anyone know how on earth Mickey Morandini is supposed to help the Expos? Trading Brad Fullmer for Lee Stevens gives the Expos a much older and more expensive first baseman, but not necessarily a better one. Chris Widger is overrated, and Orlando Cabrera isn't very good. Aside from Bergeron, no one on this team draws walks; the Expos ranked dead last in the majors with 438 free passes last year. The Expos led the majors with 160 errors last season, and the infielders, in particular, have poor range afield. Key The Expos desperately need Bergeron to hit the way he is capable of, hitting .300 and drawing 80 walks, and they need to stop futzing around with Morandini and find out whether Vidro can build on last season, when he hit .304 with 45 doubles. Overall 1999: 718 runs, 14th in the NL. 2000: The addition of Bergeron and the maturation of Barrett should tack on another 30 runs or so, but they're still unlikely to outscore anyone in the division other than Florida. Philadelphia Phillies
*Double-A numbers Strengths Who finished 3rd in the NL in OBP, stole 27 bases, and led the league with 11 triples? Bobby Abreu, the most underrated player in baseball. Scott Rolen, when healthy, is one of the three best third basemen in baseball. Doug Glanville elevated his game last season, and now has to be considered an elite center fielder. Mike Lieberthal had the same OPS as Ivan Rodriguez. Pat Burrell is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, and he's ready for the major leagues. Weaknesses Interrupting the heart of the Phillies' lineup is Rico Brogna, whose 790 OPS last season ranked dead last among the 16 hitters who played at least 125 games at first base. Brogna and Gant are making it difficult for Burrell to show just how ready he is. And the Phillies' middle infield of Anderson and Relaford is arguably the worst in baseball. Key The Phillies have to decide which of Gant and Brogna they'd rather keep, dump the other one, and get Burrell into the lineup everyday. Then they have to hope that one of their middle infielders remembers to pack a bat on his way to Philadelphia. Overall 1999: 841 runs, 6th in the NL. 2000: Rolen should be healthier, but expect Lieberthal and Glanville to have modest declines, and Abreu can't get any better, can he? Unless Terry Francona has grown to like writing "Burrell" on his lineup cards this month, expect the Phillies to lose about 20-30 runs and finish right around the league average in runs scored. New York Mets
Strengths The first five hitters in the lineup all get on base, and the Mets' leadoff hitter is simply The Greatest Leadoff Hitter of All Time. Edgardo Alfonzo is the best young second baseman in the game, and Mike Piazza is the best catcher in the game, period. Weaknesses This is an old, old team. The Greatest Leadoff Hitter of All Time is 41 years old, symbolizing the Mets' losing battle against Father Time. Todd Zeile would be indistinguishable from John Olerud if he only doubled his walks, played great defense, and lost three years of age. Met fans only wish that Derek Bell were more distinguishable from Bobby Bonilla. And who knows? Maybe this is the year Rey Ordonez ties John Smoltz in career homers. Key player Replacing Bell with Jon Nunnally would be a good start. But the key to the Mets' playoff aspirations lies in whether or not their thirty- (and forty-) something hitters can stave off their inevitable decline one more year. Overall 1999: 853 Runs, 5th in the NL. 2000: The Mets' lineup figures to be a lot worse than last year at first base and both outfield corners, and it's unlikely to be any better than last year at the other positions. Look for a dropoff of 50 runs, and that's being conservative. Rany Jazayerli, M.D., is co-author of the Baseball Prospectus, the in-depth, irreverent, no-holds-barred look at our National Pastime. He can be reached by email at ranyj@mediaone.net. | ALSO SEE Lineup analysis: NL Central Lineup analysis: NL West Lineup analysis: AL East Lineup analysis: AL Central Lineup analysis: AL West  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||