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Wednesday, December 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Age, injuries could hurt Texas lineup ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In the wake of Alex Rodriguez's new contract, I have (as they say) a question and a comment:
Question: What happens if two (or more) players have contracts guaranteeing that they'll be the highest-paid in the game?
Comment: From last spring through last week, I couldn't open my front door without somebody asking me, "Where's Alex going to end up?" Admittedly, I have less insight into such matters than do, say, Peter Gammons or Jayson Stark. That said, what I told inquisitors through all those months was, "I don't have any idea, and I don't think that anybody else does, either." Well, how many people were talking about the Rangers last summer?
Games Age Randy Velarde 122 38 Rusty Greer 105 32 Ivan Rodriguez 91 29 Alex Rodriguez 148 25 Rafael Palmeiro 158 36 Andres Galarraga 141 39 Ken Caminiti 59 37 Gabe Kapler 116 25 Ruben Mateo 52 23There are two truisms about injuries. The first holds that players who have been injured in the past are likely to be injured in the future. The second holds that the older a player is, the more likely he is to be injured. Assuming these two truisms are accurate, I have concerns about the Rangers' new-look lineup. Velarde, Greer, Ivan Rodriguez, Caminiti, Kapler and Mateo -- that's six of the nine projected regulars -- spent significant time on the disabled list last season. Of those six, Velarde and Caminiti are both in their late 30s, and don't figure to get either healthier or, perhaps more the point, better. The other three are Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Andres Galarraga. Palmeiro and Galarraga are also in their late 30s. And Rodriguez, in his five full seasons as a major leaguer, has been on the DL four times. What all this suggests to me is that the "projected Rangers lineup" will rarely take the field, because one or more of its members will likely be on the DL at any particular time. The Rangers will almost certainly feature a solid hitting attack next season. But will they be able to simply slug their way to the postseason, as they did in 1998 and 1999? No, I don't think that they can. If the Rangers are going to win 90-plus games, they'll need to finish in the middle of the pack in pitching, too. | ALSO SEE Stark: The owner who snagged A-Rod Rangers go for broke: A-Rod deal worth $252M A-Rod-Ometer: How fat is his wallet? AthletesDirect: Alex Rodriguez answers fans' questions |