Wednesday, November 27 Is signing Pudge a good idea? By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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Ivan Rodriguez turns 31 years old in a few days, he still possesses his rocket arm, he's hit .300 or better at a premium defensive position for eight straight years ... and yet ... there seems to be little interest from teams signing him as a free agent. The Rangers are unlikely to offer him salary arbitration, meaning his career with the team will end. Rodriguez, of course, has missed significant time the past three years with various injuries since winning the American League MVP Award in 1999. Despite that missed playing time, Rodriguez is fourth all time in games caught through age 30:
1. Johnny Bench, 1,498 For teams considering signing Pudge to, say, a three- or four-year deal, Bench's rapid decline after age 30 is a worst-case scenario of what can happen to a catcher who has caught a lot of games at a young age. Bench played just 239 more games at catcher past the age of 30. In fact, of the top 20 players with the most games caught through age 30, only two (Carter and Jim Sundberg) rank in the top 20 in games caught from age 31 onward. That doesn't necessarily mean signing Rodriguez is a bad idea; it just means signing him to a deal longer than three or four years is a risky move. Besides Rodriguez's health, the other question is whether he'll maintain his high offensive production. Instead of comparing him to the other 19 guys with the most games caught, let's compare Pudge to some of the other best-hitting catchers since 1950, by looking at production from ages 27-30 and how they did from ages 31-34. Player Age Games OPS LgOPS Rate Johnny Bench 27-30 539 836 715 +16.9% Johnny Bench 31-34 415 794 726 + 9.4% All eight of these All-Star catchers had dropoffs in production when comparing their OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) to the league average OPS, and many were significant. All of them played fewer games in the ensuing four-year span (Mike Piazza's age 34 season will be 2003). So, you have a catcher who has carried a heavy load throughout his career, has been injured in recent seasons and is unlikely to match the offense he produced a few seasons ago. Again, that doesn't mean Rodriguez is a bad player. He remains a terrific hitter for a catcher, when healthy. But signing him and expecting to play he like he did in 1999 would be a huge mistake. (Thanks to Lee Sinins' baseball encyclopedia for help on the research.) David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com. |
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