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Wednesday, November 27
 
Is signing Pudge a good idea?

By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

Ivan Rodriguez turns 31 years old in a few days, he still possesses his rocket arm, he's hit .300 or better at a premium defensive position for eight straight years ... and yet ... there seems to be little interest from teams signing him as a free agent. The Rangers are unlikely to offer him salary arbitration, meaning his career with the team will end.

Rodriguez, of course, has missed significant time the past three years with various injuries since winning the American League MVP Award in 1999. Despite that missed playing time, Rodriguez is fourth all time in games caught through age 30:

1. Johnny Bench, 1,498
2. Ray Schalk, 1,445
3. Ted Simmons, 1,439
4. Ivan Rodriguez, 1,426
5. Gary Carter, 1,257

For teams considering signing Pudge to, say, a three- or four-year deal, Bench's rapid decline after age 30 is a worst-case scenario of what can happen to a catcher who has caught a lot of games at a young age. Bench played just 239 more games at catcher past the age of 30.

In fact, of the top 20 players with the most games caught through age 30, only two (Carter and Jim Sundberg) rank in the top 20 in games caught from age 31 onward. That doesn't necessarily mean signing Rodriguez is a bad idea; it just means signing him to a deal longer than three or four years is a risky move.

Besides Rodriguez's health, the other question is whether he'll maintain his high offensive production. Instead of comparing him to the other 19 guys with the most games caught, let's compare Pudge to some of the other best-hitting catchers since 1950, by looking at production from ages 27-30 and how they did from ages 31-34.

Player            Age   Games  OPS  LgOPS   Rate
Johnny Bench     27-30   539   836   715   +16.9%
Johnny Bench     31-34   415   794   726   + 9.4%

Yogi Berra 27-30 577 848 745 +13.8% Yogi Berra 31-34 527 822 745 +10.3%

Carlton Fisk 27-30 522 853 715 +19.3% Carlton Fisk 31-34 453 761 721 + 5.5%

Gary Carter 27-30 558 827 718 +15.2% Gary Carter 31-34 550 747 732 + 2.0%

Ted Simmons 27-30 570 889 729 +21.9% Ted Simmons 31-34 522 702 718 - 2.3%

Roy Campanella 27-30 527 899 747 +20.3% Roy Campanella 31-34 502 864 753 +14.7%

Mike Piazza 27-30 592 988 777 +27.2% Mike Piazza 31-33 412 957 769 +24.4%

Bill Freehan 27-30 519 777 712 + 9.1% Bill Freehan 31-34 431 725 708 + 2.4%

All eight of these All-Star catchers had dropoffs in production when comparing their OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) to the league average OPS, and many were significant. All of them played fewer games in the ensuing four-year span (Mike Piazza's age 34 season will be 2003).

So, you have a catcher who has carried a heavy load throughout his career, has been injured in recent seasons and is unlikely to match the offense he produced a few seasons ago.

Again, that doesn't mean Rodriguez is a bad player. He remains a terrific hitter for a catcher, when healthy. But signing him and expecting to play he like he did in 1999 would be a huge mistake.

(Thanks to Lee Sinins' baseball encyclopedia for help on the research.)

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.




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