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Wednesday, October 18
Dee Brown



REPORT FILED: OCTOBER 13

A quick note of condolence to the families and friends of the sailors aboard the United States guided missile destroyer USS COLE, damaged Thursday by a terrorist bomb in Yemen. My thoughts and prayers are with you this evening.

Dee Brown
Kansas City Royals
Position: OF Height: 6-0 Weight: 215 Born: 3/27/78 Bats: Left Throws: Right

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1999 Wilmington A 61 221 49 68 10 2 13 46 44 56 20 8 .308 .431 .548
1999 Wichita AA 65 235 58 83 14 3 12 56 35 41 10 8 .353 .440 .591
2000 Omaha AAA 125 479 76 129 25 6 23 70 37 112 20 3 .269 .324 .491

After his spectacular 1999 season, there was speculation that Royals outfielder Dee Brown would be given the starting job in left field in 2000. It didn't happen, and indeed, Brown is now showing up on "Prospect Disappointments of 2000" type lists. His name isn't being heard as often when hot prospects are discussed, after his mediocre season at Omaha.

Brown, Kansas City's first-round pick back in 1996, destroyed the Class-A Carolina League and the Double-A Texas League in 1999. He showed excellent power, hit for a great batting average, stole bases, and demonstrated strong strike zone judgment. He drew a lot of walks and didn't strike out much for a power hitter, while also making some strides to improve his weak defensive skills. I gave him a straight Grade A in the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook, and ranked him as the No. 6 prospect in all of baseball in my preseason Top 50 Prospects chart.

Fast forward a year, and we see a different picture. Brown was sent to Omaha at the beginning of the season to continue working on his defense and get more experience against high-level pitching. In some ways, his season was a success. He hit 23 homers and stole 20 bases, being caught just three times. But his batting average was a disappointment, he was very streaky, he was benched for not hustling a couple of times, and his on-base percentage fell faster than the NASDAQ, going down more than 100 points. What happened?

The biggest problem was deterioration in his strike zone judgment. Brown's walk rate was only half of what it was in 1999, and his strikeouts jumped as well. He was less willing to work the count in his favor and more aggressive about chasing pitches outside the strike zone, perhaps in a misguided attempt to hit for more power. His power and speed production was steady: the drop in his performance across the board was because he lost command of the strike zone. He still has a beautiful swing, excellent bat speed, and quick wrists, so there is nothing organic wrong. It was just his mental approach.

He can get that back; he made huge strides in 1999 and it isn't unusual for a player to take a step backward after a year of progress, especially when they are still young. And youth is still the main thing Brown has in his favor: he will enter the 2001 season at age 22, with a whole year of Triple-A under his belt. Guys who prove themselves in the high minors before age 22 almost always develop into useful players, and often stars.

I do have some concerns about the hustling problem, although PCL observers told me it was not considered a huge deal. Brown is a good guy; he was just frustrated, and it hasn't been a problem in the past. It won't be in the future either if he nips it in the bud now, but that's up to him.

If you invested in Dee Brown stock, he's still rated a "buy." Youth, power, and speed lead to strong earnings potential. Let's hope he gets the strike zone judgment back and solves any nascent attitude problems. My feeling is that he will.

Mailbag question
Matt C. writes: In a recent press conference Mets outfielder Darryl Hamilton described Timo Perez as a five-tool player. I know he is no John Sickels, but do you think there is any truth behind that statement? I didn't think Perez was that much of a power hitter.

Well, if Darryl Hamilton wanted to be John Sickels, he'd have to lose five inches of height, gain about 50 pounds, and lose about 99.9 percent of the money in his bank account. I'm sure he's glad to be who he is.

Perez is an interesting player. He is from the Dominican Republic, but was signed as a free agent after playing in Japan. He's very fast, and did quite well this year, well over .300 in Triple-A and earning a spot on the major league roster.

I don't think I would describe him as a pure "five tool" guy since I don't think he's going to hit for a bunch of power. But he can hit doubles and steal a lot of bases, so that helps some. From the Seven Skill perspective that I use, he lacks strong strike zone judgment. He makes contact, but he doesn't draw many walks. That didn't hurt him at Norfolk because he was hitting .357, but he'll have to hit at least .280 in the majors for his OBP to be at decent levels. He did that in limited action with the Mets, and I think he'll be in the mix as a fourth outfielder for a long time to come.

But I don't think he's going to be a star unless he shows more power than expected or ratches up the walk rate.

A personal note
I was very distracted on Thursday. Baseball seems pretty unimportant when someone rams a U.S. Navy ship with a boatload full of explosives, and when the Israelis and Palestinians are at each other's throats again.

It was bizarre, watching the news on the TV set in my makeshift office while my 2-year-old son watched Sesame Street in the next room.

I kept thinking about my son Nicholas and my wife Jeri. I kept thinking about how I don't want anything bad to happen to them. And then I thought about all the Palestinian parents and all the Israeli parents and how they love their children and their spouses. And how, to protect their families, some Palestinians and some Israelis feel compelled to kill other people's children and spouses.

And I thought about the children and spouses of the men and women aboard the USS COLE, and how they serve their country to help protect American children and spouses. And then I thought about the families of the terrorists, and how those guys in the suicide boat probably thought in some twisted way that by blowing up the COLE, they were protecting their own children and spouses.

And I thought about how powerless I am to stop any of this. Despair.

And then I got an e-mail from a gentleman in Taiwan, asking me a question about Albert Belle.

Technology has made the world a smaller place. We can communicate with each other across the globe in a blink of an electronic eye. The tech won't do it for us; humans are still the ones that have to do the talking, or the shooting. It doesn't matter where we live ... Kansas, Taiwan, Gaza, Aden, Tel Aviv ... we all love our children. I wish that we could realize that more often.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
 


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