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	Saturday, October 21
	Josh Beckett By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com
	REPORT FILED: OCTOBER 20 It's not every year that a pitcher with less than 60 professional innings is hailed as the best pitching prospect in baseball. But you'll read that about Josh Beckett over the next few months. Josh Beckett Florida Marlins Position: RHP Height: 6-4 Weight: 200 Born: 5/15/80 Year Team Level G GS IP H R ER BB K W-L ERA SV 2000 Kane County A 13 12 59.1 45 18 14 15 61 2-3 2.12 0 Beckett was Florida's first-round pick in 1999, second overall, out of high school in Spring Hill, Texas. Like most Texas fireball high school pitchers, he was compared to Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood ... but also Todd Van Poppel. Beckett signed late and didn't pitch in '99. He also signed a major-league contract, giving him a four-year time limit to reach the majors before the Marlins run out of options on his contract. The Marlins were very anxious to see how Beckett would do in his first pro ball exposure in 2000. It went very well at first ... he pitched just fine in his first three starts for Kane County in the Midwest League. But then he went on the disabled list with tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. He was out for a month and a half. He came back and made 10 more appearances, continuing to dominate, before he was shut down again with more shoulder soreness. He ended up seeing action in just 13 games, 12 of which were starts. In those 13 games, Beckett showed why the scouts like him so much. He was outstanding. Beckett throws very hard, in the 95-97 mph range and occasionally as high as 99 mph. His curveball is well above-average; the combination of the blistering heat and a knee-buckling curve is devastating when his control is on, which it usually is. He also has a changeup. It still needs some work, but right now his one-two punch is so good that the lack of a solid changeup is not a problem. Unlike most young power pitchers, Beckett throws strikes. His 61/15 K/BB ratio in 59.1 innings was fifth-best in the league. He also gives up few hits, and was basically way ahead of the competition. Now, I know what you're thinking. What about the injury? The Marlins say that the soreness was not serious, and that they were just being cautious with him. That's good; I'd rather they hold him back a bit too much than stick him on the mound if he is less than 100 percent. Beckett is a better prospect than Kerry Wood was at the same point, and there is no sense in pushing him if his arm is sore. But that brings us to the next question: he was kept to a reasonable workload last year, but his arm was still sore. What does this say about his future durability? Possibly nothing, possibly everything. His mechanics are good, but sometimes that isn't enough. So, when you see Josh Beckett's name this winter, keep a few things in mind. He has everything you look for in a young pitcher. He throws hard, he throws strikes, he has great numbers. The scouts love him. But we're still talking about a pitcher with less than 60 innings of pro experience, who has already used up an option on his major-league contract. Don't be afraid to make a fantasy investment in Beckett if your league rules allow. But don't go overboard, either, assuming that he will be your staff savior. Many obstacles could sink Beckett's career. His troubles keeping healthy in 2000 are a shot across the bow. Mailbag questions Dan T. writes: Alex Escobar had a pretty good year at Double-A Binghamton considering his age and all the development time he's missed to injury in his career. How high do you think his ceiling is? Some people compare Escobar to Vladimir Guerrero. That's overdone ... Escobar is 22, and Vlad the Impaler was already an established major leaguer by that age. As you point out, Escobar has missed a lot of time due to injury, partly because of his tightly-wound body that has almost no fat on it. He's an outstanding athlete, with above-average power and blazing speed, but he still needs to work on his strike zone judgment. His work ethic has also been questioned. Just physically, Escobar has everything he needs to be a star. His plate discipline is better than it was a couple of years ago, but it still needs some work. If I were the Mets, I'd give him a full year of Triple-A. His ceiling is very high, but so is Jose Guillen's. I want to see more from Escobar before I start praising him excessively. Al E. writes: I have heard quite a mixed bag of reviews and comparisons concerning Toronto's Felipe Lopez. Please give me your take on this young shortstop. Normally it's hard to get excited about someone who hits .257 in Double-A, with 31 walks and 110 strikeouts in a full season. But Lopez is just 20 years old, and scouts love his overall potential. He's still raw, though. He should be an excellent defensive shortstop with more experience, so how good he is depends on how he develops with the bat. He has bat speed and basic power, but needs to learn a lot more about hitting. I'd feel better about him if he was with an organization like the Athletics that emphasizes strike zone judgment. Response to "a personal note" The personal note I included in last week's column generated a flood of e-mail, easily more responses than any of my baseball-related columns have received this year. I want to thank everyone who wrote me. I've always wanted to be a political and social commentator/columnist. Maybe in my next life. John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.		ALSO SEE Down on the Farm archive