MLB
Scores/Schedules
Standings
Statistics
Transactions
Injuries
Players
Message board
Weekly lineup

 Wednesday, April 19
Arizona Diamondbacks
 
 By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

Decade in review

Division titles
One (1999)

.500 or better seasons
One

Best season: 1999
Picked by most prognosticators to finish third or fourth in the five-team National League West, instead the Diamondbacks won 100 games and won the West by 14 games.

Worst season: 1998
Despite a relatively hefty payroll, by far the largest ever for a first-year expansion team, the Diamondbacks went 65-97 in 1998.

Best trade
Although they were in first place just prior to the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks were being threatened by the Giants, and they did not have a reliable closer. So on July 9, Arizona traded minor-league pitchers Vladimir Nunez and Brad Penny to the Florida Marlins for fireballing right-hander Matt Mantei. It's too soon to know the long-term ramifications of the deal -- Penny is a great prospect and might one day be a No. 1 starter in the big leagues -- but Mantei performed admirably the rest of the way and helped key the Diamondbacks' big second half, in which they went 52-21.

Worst trade
On June 12, also last season, the Diamondbacks, desperate for bullpen help, traded shortstop Tony Batista to the Blue Jays for left-handed relief pitcher Dan Plesac. Once in Toronto, Batista hit 26 home runs and slugged .565. Once in Arizona, Plesac performed well enough, 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA, but he pitched only 22 innings in three-and-a-half months.

1999 in review
Record:
100-62, 2nd overall
Payroll:
$70.0 million, 9th overall

Runs scored:
908, 1st in NL
Runs allowed:
676, 3rd in NL

What went right
Just about everything. The new pitchers earned their enormous salaries, and the old hitters, so disappointing in 1998, exploded. New left fielder Luis Gonzalez enjoyed the season of his life, and rookie first baseman Erubiel Durazo batted better than .400 in the minors before making a big splash in the majors.

What went wrong
Ex-phenom Travis Lee lost his job to Durazo, and then he got hurt. The bullpen was shaky early on, but did well in the second half, thanks in large part to closer Matt Mantei.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Randy Johnson. The Diamondbacks expected a lot, and they got the National League's eventual Cy Young winner as Johnson topped the league with a 2.48 ERA, 364 strikeouts and 272 innings.

2. Moving Jay Bell to second base. A shortstop in 1998, Bell didn't impress anyone with the glove, and his bat was something of a disappointment, too. At second base in 1999, he fielded well enough, and was arguably the most valuable player in the lineup.

3. The trade for Matt Mantei. The Diamondbacks suffered a series of demoralizing losses in April, as nobody seemed able to protect a late-innings lead. Mantei is one of the game's top young closers, and after he came aboard the D-Backs became a "normal" team, able to win the great majority of games in which they led late.

Looking ahead to 2000
Three key questions
1. Have we now seen the real Matt Williams and Jay Bell?

2. Can Tony Womack really play shortstop?

3. Is the lineup too old to score anywhere near 900 runs again?

Can expect to play better
Travis Lee certainly can't play worse than he did in 1999, although he might end up as trade bait if he doesn't take well to right field, supposedly his new position. Erubiel Durazo's percentages aren't likely to improve, but his raw stats will benefit greatly from a full season with the Diamondbacks. He could finish with 30 homers and 100 RBI.

Can expect to play worse
Almost everybody else in the lineup.

Man on the spot

If Arizona struggles in 2000, suddenly people will notice that Tony Womack doesn't get on base and is not a particularly skilled fielder.

Projected lineup
SS Tony Womack
2B Jay Bell
LF Luis Gonzalez
3B Matt Williams
1B Erubiel Durazo
CF Steve Finley
RF Travis Lee
C Kelly Stinnett

Rotation/closer
Randy Johnson
Todd Stottlemyre
Omar Daal
Armando Reynoso
Brian Anderson
Matt Mantei

A closer look
This is no revelation, but the Diamondbacks made a huge improvement in both the pitching and hitting departments last season. At least some of the pitching improvement was expected, what with the money the club spent to acquire Randy Johnson and Todd Stottlemyre. But the hitting? This is a club that, in 1998, ranked 14th in the National League in runs scored. And in response, the Diamondbacks did little in the off-season except add Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and Tony Womack, none of whom had been particularly productive the previous season.

Nevertheless, in 1999 the Diamondbacks led the National League in scoring, with 908 runs, despite playing in a pretty good pitcher's park.

Some commentators speculated that perhaps the Arizona hitting improved because the Arizona pitching improved. That is (so the argument went), with the pitchers doing so well, it took pressure off the hitters, who responded with great success facilitated by a new-found relaxation.

Does this theory hold water?

Relative to their league, the Diamondbacks' team ERA improved by 27 percent from 1998 to 1999. This is the seventh-best improvement by a major league team since 1970, and represents one of only 17 improvements of 20 or more percent over that same span.

Did the hitters for those other 16 teams show a significant improvement in the year of the big pitching improvement? No, they did not. In fact, their performances were nearly identical in the two seasons.

           AB    OBP  Slugging  OPS
Year 1   60094  .325    .396    721
Year 2   57037  .326    .395    722

Like we said, nearly identical. In fact, if we didn't carry out the decimal points (not pictured here), the OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) for both seasons would be 721.

Of course, if we throw the Diamondbacks into the study, we would find a slight increase in batting stats in Year 2 ... but not enough to change our expectations for future teams that improve their pitching staffs from one year to the next. As much as the guys on TV like to talk about chemistry and psychology, it seems that the pitchers and the hitters operate, for the most part, independently of each other.

Rob Neyer is a staff writer at ESPN.com.
 



ALSO SEE
Diamondbacks minor-league report

ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters