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 Thursday, April 20
Atlanta Braves
 
 By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

Decade in review
10-year record:
925-629, .595 (1st overall)
Total payroll:
$453.8 million (2nd overall)

Division titles
Eight (1991 through 1993, 1995 through 1999)

.500 or better seasons
Nine (1991 through 1999)

Best season: 1995
They posted the best record in the National League, and they won the World Series, topping the Indians in a tight, six-game affair in which five games were decided by one run. Greg Maddux garnered his fourth Cy Young Award, thanks to a can-you-believe-it 1.63 ERA.

Worst season: 1990
This is an easy one, as 1990 was the only season in the decade in which the Braves didn't post a winning record, and one of only two in which they did not win a division title. In 1990, Atlanta went 67-95, and finished last for the third straight season. However, the seeds for future success were there. Dave Justice and Ron Gant were in the lineup, and the pitching rotation included a trio of fellows named John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Steve Avery. And on June 22, Bobby Cox took over the managerial reins.

Best trade
On July 18, 1993, the Braves sent minor leaguers Donnie Elliott, Melvin Nieves and Vince Moore to San Diego, and received first baseman Fred McGriff. The Braves played brilliantly from that point, winning 104 games to edge the Giants for the National League West title. Meanwhile, neither Elliott nor Nieves nor Moore ever contributed much at the major league level.

Worst trade
The Braves really didn't make any bad trades in the 1990s. Following the 1995 season, they did dump Kent Mercker for a couple of guys -- Joe Borowski and Rachaad Stewart -- who never did anything. But in the four seasons since, Mercker's posted a composite 4.93 ERA, so perhaps the Braves were better off without him.

Best player
Greg Maddux, a.k.a. The Smartest Pitcher Who Ever Lived. Maddux joined the Braves in 1993, and since then he's garnered three Cy Young Awards and posted an incredible 126-51 record.

Worst player
After two decent and three horrible years in Seattle, third baseman Jim Presley joined the Braves in 1990, and spent almost every day in the lineup. Thanks in large part to a .284 on-base percentage (!), Presley scored a mere 59 runs in 140 games. The Braves went 65-97. Terry Pendleton took Presley's job in 1991, and the Braves went 94-68.

1999 in review
Record:
103-59, 1st overall
Payroll:
$79.3 million, 3rd overall

Runs scored:
840, 7th in NL
Runs allowed:
661, 1st in NL

What went right?
Chipper Jones finally enjoyed the huge season everyone's always expected, and he was rewarded with the National League MVP Award. In his first season with the Braves, right fielder Brian Jordan -- who once played football for the Falcons -- set career highs in both games (153) and RBI (115). Kevin Millwood built upon his solid 1998 season, and led the Braves starters in ERA (2.68) and winning percentage (.720). John Rocker assumed the closer role, and recorded 38 saves.

What went wrong?
John Schuerholz isn't perfect, and for proof one need look no further than Otis Nixon. A Brave from 1991 through 1993, Nixon was brought back in 1999 to platoon in left field with Gerald Williams, and the 40-year-old batted just .205 in 151 at-bats. Worse from a team perspective, prior to the season both Kerry Ligtenberg (arm) and Andres Galarraga (cancer) were lost for the entire campaign. Also, a knee injury limited star catcher Javy Lopez to 65 games and forced him out of the postseason. Tom Glavine seemed to struggle early on with the new strike zone, but he finished with a respectable 4.12 ERA.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Brian Jordan to play right field. While the Braves' lineup still wasn't perfect, having Jordan in the cleanup slot meant one less hole.

2. Trading Denny Neagle to Cincinnati. Neagle wound up missing part of the season with an injury, while the Braves got a full year out of Bret Boone, who wasn't great but did constitute an improvement over Keith Lockhart. And with Kevin Millwood developing into one of the NL's top starters, the Braves didn't need Neagle anyway.

3. Moving Rocker into the closer role after Ligtenberg's injury. Just like he did in 1998 with Ligtenberg, Bobby Cox didn't panic -- like most managers would -- over using a young, untested pitcher as his closer.

Looking ahead to 2000
Three key questions
1. Will the Braves cobble together enough production at first base, from a large group of candidates including Andres Galarraga, Wally Joyner, Randall Simon and Brian Hunter?

2. Will John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox really hand the shortstop job to top prospect Rafael Furcal, who hasn't played an inning above Class A?

3. Will an already-strong bullpen be fortified further upon the return of Kerry Ligtenberg, recovering from Tommy John surgery?

Can expect to play better
The sky's the limit for Andruw Jones. He doesn't turn 23 until April, and only figures to get better and better, assuming he stays focused on the task at hand.

Can expect to play worse
As great as he is, Chipper Jones probably won't duplicate his MVP season. That said, his RBI total might rise, given the probable presence of Quilvio Veras and Reggie Sanders atop the lineup. Brian Jordan set a career high by playing in 153 games, and given his history we might expect a stint or two on the DL.

Man on the spot

Will Javy Lopez ever be the same? There are whispers that he won't be, which would be a serious blow to the Braves' chances for future hegemony.

Projected lineup
2B Quilvio Veras
LF Reggie Sanders
3B Chipper Jones
RF Brian Jordan
C Javy Lopez
CF Andruw Jones
1B Andres Galarraga
SS Rafael Furcal

Rotation/Closer
Greg Maddux
Kevin Millwood
John Smoltz
Tom Glavine
Bruce Chen
John Rocker

A closer look
When Ken Griffey suddenly became available last fall, nearly every interested party (including this one) assumed that Junior would soon be patrolling center field in Atlanta. After all, the city is close to his Florida home, Ted Turner has more money than God, and the Braves have plenty of prospects to offer as trade bait. There was, however, one problem with all this ... the Braves are quite happy with the center fielder they've got. From the beginning, John Schuerholz let everyone know that Andruw Jones isn't going anywhere.

Jones, you see, has unlimited potential. He can hit, he's got power, he's fast as the wind, he can throw. And range? Bobby Cox says Jones is the best center fielder he's seen since Willie Mays.

But how good will Jones be? Remember, we're talking about a kid who arrived in the majors, with a great team, when he was 19 years old. Needless to say, not many players have done the same. But the chart below lists three center fielders who reached the majors when they were 19, and who looked for all the world like future superstars.

         Age   Avg   HR  RBI   OBP  Slug
Cedeno    22  .301   64  275  .350  .480
Griffey   22  .301   87  344  .369  .494
Jones     22  .260   80  257  .335  .476

Those stat lines are totals through each player's fourth season, which they completed at the age of 22. For those of you born after 1975, the first of the trio is Cesar Cedeno, who after his initial action was labeled by Leo Durocher as "the next Willie Mays." (Sound familiar?) His numbers were all the more impressive -- more impressive than Griffey's, really -- when you consider that he compiled them in the early 1970s, and while playing half his games in the Houston Astrodome, then one of the greatest pitcher's parks in the game's history.

But of course, Cedeno was not the next Willie Mays. He was a solid player for the better part of the 1970s, but something less than a superstar. And a broken ankle suffered in the 1980 NLCS virtually ended his career as a productive hitter.

Griffey ... well, him you know about. He's the closest thing to the "the next Willie Mays" that we've seen.

And Andruw Jones? There is cause for concern here. While there is every reason to think that Jones will enjoy a long and productive career, that .335 on-base percentage is a red flag, especially in this Age of the Hitter. Jones still has a chance to be The Next Big Thing, but he's got some real work to do.

And finally, a note on John Rocker: There is, of course, no excuse for the asinine verbal vomit spewed by John Rocker in a recent "interview" with a Sports Illustrated reporter.

Rocker's comments might well become a distraction this spring, thanks in part to a pack of rabid media that would love to beat this particular story to death in the otherwise boring weeks ahead. That said, there might not be a more professional organization than the Braves, and they'll likely have put all this behind them before the Ides of March.

On a more fundamental level, what are we afraid of here? The man, or the words? Does anyone really think that John Rocker presents a physical danger to anyone who's not crowding the plate? Probably not. So it's the words. And if it's the words that are dangerous, should we be angry with Rocker, or with the news organizations that so happily disseminated those words?

As for talk of somehow "firing" Rocker, I would like to quote a wise man of my acquaintance, who once wrote, "The principle that citizens should be punished for 'erroneous speech' is a short road to hell."

Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com.
 



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