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| | Wednesday, April 19 Los Angeles Dodgers | ||||||||||
| By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com
Record: 77-85, 16th overall Payroll: $76.6 million, 4th overall Runs scored: 793, 11th in NL Runs allowed: 787, 9th in NL What went right? A huge earthquake did not cause California to split away from the West Coast. Eric Karros had the best season of his career, hitting .304 with 34 homers and 112 RBI. Gary Sheffield drove in 101 runs, scored 103 runs, and drew 101 walks. Mark Grudzielanek set a career-best OBP of .376. Kevin Brown won 18 games and was the only consistently reliable starting pitcher. Jeff Shaw did well as the closer, saving 34 games with a 2.78 ERA. What went wrong? Chan Ho Park (5.23 ERA) and Darren Dreifort (4.79) were major disappointments. Carlos Perez self-destructed, proving that there is more than one unstable Perez brother. The overall pitching performance was very discouraging for a team in Dodger Stadium. The hitting was just as bad. Devon White, Raul Mondesi, and Todd Hundley all failed to contribute what was expected of them. Mondesi's poor attitude and inability to relate to manager Davey Johnson turned into a serious problem, creating unneeded clubhouse tension. Jose Vizcaino posted a .304 OBP and a .297 SLG, horrible numbers for a guy who saw considerable action subbing for injured teammates. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Putting Todd Hundley behind the plate in 108 games. Hundley wasn't fully recovered from his severe elbow injury with the Mets, which allowed basestealers to run rampant against him. He didn't hit, either. 2. Signing Devon White as a free agent. The 37-year old outfielder is declining as a hitter, and even his supporters admit he has lost a step defensively and appeared indifferent at times. 3. Giving Carlos Perez 16 starts. It was he wasn't right, but the Dodgers gave him 89.2 innings, in which he allowed 116 hits and a 7.43 ERA. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. How well will Shawn Green adjust to the big pond of Los Angeles? 2. Can Park and Dreifort turn their natural talent into performance? 3. How patient will the Fox corporate hacks be with the baseball operation? Will a rebuilding process be given time to work? Or will heads roll if immediate results aren't positive? Can expect to play better Park and Dreifort. Park especially showed all the signs of being headed towards a breakthrough in 1999, but it just didn't happen. Hundley might improve; it's hard to see how he could be worse. Adrian Beltre should also improve, although his big breakthrough probably won't happen until 2001. Can expect to play worse Grudzielanek. He beat his career OBP by almost 50 points, and will be hard-pressed to repeat the performance. White should continue his slow decline. Green's numbers will take a hit, due to the switch in leagues and the worse hitting conditions in Chavez Ravine. Projected lineup 2B Mark Grudzielanek 3B Adrian Beltre LF Gary Sheffield RF Shawn Green 1B Eric Karros C Todd Hundley CF Devon White SS Jose Vizcaino? Alex Cora? Pee Wee Reese?
Rotation/closer Kevin Brown Chan Ho Park Darren Dreifort Eric Gagne Orel Hershiser Jeff Shaw A closer look The Dodgers have been very active this offseason, as general manager Kevin Malone attempts to correct what went wrong in 1999. Let's look at the two biggest transactions, and see if they are actually going to help the team or not. Trade Number One: Raul Mondesi and Pedro Borbon were traded to Toronto for Shawn Green and infielder Jose Nunez. Green was then signed to a six-year contract worth $84 million. The Green contract is a big payroll burden, but getting rid of Mondesi is a major plus. Mondesi spent 1999 struggling, complaining, or both. Green was 26 last year, and may be coming off his career year, but then again he may just be getting started. Hitting .300 with 40 homers, like Green did last season, is a hard feat to accomplish in Dodger Stadium, and some slippage in his numbers should be expected. But he is younger than Mondesi, and his overall career numbers are very comparable:
OBP SLG
Shawn Green .344 .505
Raul Mondesi .334 .504
That's a little misleading, given the contexts of their home parks. The
Skydome is easier than Dodger Stadium. On the other hand, Mondesi hasn't
posted a slugging percentage higher than .497 for two years, whereas Green
has been steadily improving and was at .588 in 1999. Jose Nunez, for his part, is a promising second base prospect. Even considering the big money the Dodgers now owe Green,
using him to replace Mondesi is at worst a break-even move, and could end up
being a very successful maneuver if Green adjusts well to his new
environment. This move should improve the team.
Trade Number Two: Ismael Valdes and Eric Young were sent to the Cubs for
Terry Adams, Chad Ricketts, and Brian Stephenson.
I understand the Green/Mondesi swap. I don't get this one.
The Dodgers were anxious to dump Young, being disappointed in his
fragility, as well as annoyed at his large contract. That's their own fault;
they are the ones who gave him the money in the first place. Be that as it
may, Eric Young is not a bad player. He draws a lot of walks, usually posts
decent on-base percentages, and steals a lot of bases. He isn't terrible with
the glove. There are certainly worse players making $4 million a year, and
seeing as how the Dodgers don't have a ready replacement available, I don't
see how getting rid of Young helps the team win more games.
Dumping Valdes makes even less sense. A lot of people in the organization
apparently hate Valdes, spreading stories about his alleged lack of
"toughness." The team has never scored runs for him, and while he hasn't
developed into the Maddux-like ace that some observers expected, he is a very
good major league starting pitcher.
His career 3.38 ERA is outstanding in modern baseball. He's a 26-year old pitcher with 1,025 major league innings to his credit. Those are hard to find these days. He certainly pitched better
than Chan Ho Park or Darren Dreifort last year. Yes, Dodger Stadium helped
Valdes, and he may struggle in Wrigley. But he was more of a scapegoat than
an actual cause of trouble in Los Angeles.
Terry Adams will move into a setup role behind Jeff Shaw, and he certainly
has a live arm. Adams will help the bullpen, but there are lots of guys who
can help in the bullpen ... you don't have to give up a starter of Valdes'
caliber to get them. Ricketts and Stephenson are Grade C pitching prospects.
They might develop, they might not. Overall, the talent the Dodgers received
in this trade was not impressive.
So, why did they do it, other than just to spite Valdes? Money. As pointed
out above, Young's contract is big, and Valdes is approaching free agency.
The payroll is dangerously high, and the Dodgers felt they had to cut
somewhere. Of course, the reason the payroll is so high is because the
Dodgers gave stupid contracts to players like Devon White and Carlos Perez in
the first place. It is a problem of their own making.
The Dodgers apparently expect free agent signee Orel Hershiser to take
Valdes' spot in the rotation. Shake the dust off Orel, and he is still
capable of putting up decent numbers with a good team behind him. But is this
a good team? They weren't last year, and it is hard to see how they will be
much better in 2000. Expect the Dodgers to remain around .500, unless Davey
Johnson is able to pull off one of his miracles.
John Sickels is the author of the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE Dodgers minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | ||||||||||
