MLB
Scores/Schedules
Standings
Statistics
Transactions
Injuries
Players
Message board
Weekly lineup

 Wednesday, April 19
Minnesota Twins
 
 By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

Decade in review
10-year record:
718-833, .463 (27th overall)

Total payroll:
$221.6 million (25th overall)

Division titles
One (1991)

.500 or better seasons
Two

Best season: 1991
The Twins went 95-67, then outlasted the Braves in one of the best World Series matches in history. Jack Morris, the Game 7 victor, anchored a solid pitching staff featuring Kevin Tapani (16-9, 2.99) and Scott Erickson (20-8, 3.18), while Rick Aguilera saved 42 games.

Worst season: 1997
The Twins had a worse record in 1999, but the 1997 club went 68-94, and did it with veterans, rather than rookies. The season ended with the Minnesota legislature shooting down plans to build a new stadium, throwing the future of the franchise into doubt.

Best trade
It was derided as a salary dump at the time, but the Twins are happy they got Eric Milton and Cristian Guzman from the Yankees for Chuck Knoblauch. Not to be overlooked is the theft of Shane Mack from the Padres in the Rule 5 Draft before the 1990 season. The Twins also stole David Ortiz from the Mariners in 1996 for Dave Hollins.

Worst trade
The Twins were anxious to rid themselves of the stagnating Erickson in 1995, and accepted a weak offer from the Orioles. Neither Kimera Bartee nor Scott Klingenbeck developed into anything useful, while Erickson revived his fortunes in Baltimore.

Best player
Kirby Puckett, who else? The centerpiece of the franchise, Puckett was the key to the 1991 World Series club, and the emotional center to the clubhouse. He brought fans to the park even when the team was losing. The organization has never really recovered from his premature retirement due to glaucoma.

Worst player
Dave McCarty. Expected to replace Kent Hrbek at first base, phenom McCarty proved utterly inept against major league pitching. Other candidates include dead-bat Matt Walbeck, and disappointing pitcher LaTroy Hawkins, although the latter still has a chance.

1999 in review
Record:
63-97, 30th overall
Payroll:
15.8 million, 28th overall

Runs scored:
686, 14th in AL
Runs allowed:
845, 5th in AL

What went right?
The pitching was surprisingly good. Brad Radke remained his steady self. Eric Milton took a big step forward to become one of the best young pitchers in the league. Joe Mays was a surprise. Scrap-heap acquisition Bob Wells did good work in relief. Rookies Jacque Jones and Corey Koskie showed they could hit major league pitching. Chad Allen played better in the majors than he ever did in the minors. The team played .500 ball for part of the summer, before totally collapsing in September.

What went wrong?
The hitting was awful. The offense scored the fewest runs in the league, inexcusable in the Metrodome. Todd Walker hit .279 instead of .316, and his power dropped off. Matt Lawton didn't hit after getting beaned. David Ortiz struggled in spring training, then spent the year in the minors working on his defense. His replacement, Doug Mientkiewicz, hit .227 with no power. Rookie Cristian Guzman has a flashy glove at shortstop, but hit .226. LaTroy Hawkins remained an enigma in the rotation.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Tom Kelly's decision to move Mays to the rotation. Kelly is underrated as a handler of pitchers, and this worked out better than anyone expected. Mays posted a 3.72 ERA as a starter.

2. Sending Ortiz to the minors to work on his defense. His glove is legitimately bad, but the Twins could have used his power in the DH slot.

3. Giving Brent Gates 340 plate appearances at the expense of Todd Walker and Corey Koskie. Kelly's deep concern with defense kept Gates' weak bat in the lineup far too often.

Looking ahead to 2000
Three key questions
1. Can the underachieving Twins offense rebound? Much depends on Walker and Lawton. 2. Who will win the catching job following the retirement of Terry Steinbach? 3. Who will close with the departure of Mike Trombley to Baltimore?

Can expect to play better
Lawton and Walker are too talented not to hit more than they did last year. Hector Carrasco will do better a year removed from surgery. Mientkiewicz isn't as bad as he looked. Ortiz is a natural-born DH, and could thrive if allowed to concentrate on hitting. Guzman should gradually improve his bat.

Can expect to play worse
Joe Mays has a mixed track record; he could easily backslide. Chad Allen is due for a slump, if his minor league numbers are any indication. Few of the Twins exceeded expectations last year, so it's hard to pinpoint someone who is a good bet to do worse in 2000.

Man on the spot

Todd Walker. He must return to his 1998 form if he wants to stay out of Tom Kelly's doghouse.

Projected lineup
CF Jacque Jones/Torii Hunter
2B Todd Walker
RF Matt Lawton
3B Corey Koskie
DH David Ortiz
LF Chad Allen
1B Doug Mientkiewicz/Mario Valdez
C Javier Valentin/Chad Moeller/Matt LeCroy
SS Cristian Guzman

Rotation/Closer
Brad Radke
Eric Milton
Joe Mays
LaTroy Hawkins
Jason Ryan/Mark Redman
J.C.Romero/Bob Wells/Hector Carrasco

A closer look
When Eric Milton threw his no-hitter against the Angels on September 11, most media outlets pointed out that the Anaheim lineup was filled with rookies and bench players. This was true, of course, but the unspoken supposition was that the game was a fluke, that Milton isn't really that good of a pitcher. He plays for the Twins, after all.

While it is true that the inexperience of the Angels lineup helped Milton in that game, the idea that he is not a solid major league pitcher is easy to dispel. His 7-11 record obscures the fact that Eric Milton is on the verge of a major breakthrough.

Consider these numbers, courtesy of STATS, Inc, and their 2000 Major League Handbook.

    Eric Milton       W-L  ERA    IP     H   K  BB  
Pre All-Star Break    3-8  5.17  102.2 104  65  38
Post All-Star Break   4-3  3.82  103.2  86  98  25
In the first half, Milton looked very much like the pitcher he was in his 1998 rookie campaign: talented, promising, but not quite ready for the big time. In the second half, Milton seemed to realize that he belonged in the major leagues. He started throwing his slider and curveball with greater confidence, which made his fastball more effective.

This shows clearly in the numbers. The better ERA is nice, of course, but look deeper at the ratios. Note the drop in hits-per-inning, and the dramatic increase in his strikeouts, at the same time his walks dropped. The decline in ERA was no statistical fluke; his pitching was genuinely better.

The main job of a pitcher is to keep runners off base, and Milton excelled at that last year. Can you guess which American League pitcher had the lowest opposition on-base percentage last year? Pedro Martinez is the obvious answer, and the correct one.

Can you guess who number two was? Mike Mussina? Bartolo Colon? David Cone? Nope, it was Milton. Martinez and Milton were the only two American League pitchers with opposition on-base percentages lower than .300 last year, Pedro at .248 and Eric at .299.

Lots of things can get in Milton's way. He could get injured, and indeed, he has had some minor elbow and shoulder aches. He could lose his confidence, or his command. But the leading indicators for success in the near future are positive.

Twins fans like to compare Milton to Frank Viola, who overcame a rough rookie season to become an outstanding major league pitcher. If Milton's second half performance is any indication, the comparison is valid.

John Sickels is the author of the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
 



ALSO SEE
Twins minor-league report

ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters