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| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||
| New York Mets ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Record: 97-66, 6th overall Payroll: $71.5 million, 8th overall Runs scored: 853, 5th in NL Runs allowed: 711, 4th in NL What went right? Let's start with The Ageless Wonder, Ricky Henderson. At 40, Henderson posted a .423 on-base percentage and scored 89 runs in 121 games. What's more, he slugged .466, his best since 1993. Robin Ventura, fully recovered from the broken ankle he suffered in 1997, established himself as an MVP candidate with 32 home runs and 120 RBI. John Olerud and Mike Piazza were their usual productive selves. Also, Roger Cedeño looked like a young Rickey, posting a .396 on-base percentage and stealing 66 bases. The Mets bullpen posted a 3.67 ERA, second in the National League only to Atlanta's 3.52 mark. What went wrong? For the second time in his career, Bobby Bonilla "came home" to New York and almost immediately proved himself a serious pain in management's collective posterior. Bonilla rarely was healthy enough to play, and when he did play, he batted a paltry .160 in 60 games. Throw in the occasional screaming matches with manager Bobby Valentine, and the Mets had themselves a world-class nightmare. Also, starting pitchers Bobby Jones and Rick Reed both struggled with injuries. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. What kind of team would sign a 40-year-old, free-agent left fielder coming off a season in which he'd hit .236 with no power? The New York Mets, that's what kind. And they were rewarded handsomely when Rickey Henderson gave them the leadoff man they so desperately needed. 2. Just a few days before signing Henderson, the Mets traded catcher Charles Johnson -- acquired just moments earlier from the Dodgers -- to the Orioles for Armando Benitez. The Mets already had Mike Piazza so they didn't need Johnson, and Benitez (1.85, 22 saves) anchored a bullpen that was one of the league's best. And in 2000, Benitez is scheduled to take over as full-time closer. 3. Robin Ventura was coming off just a decent year with the White Sox, but the Mets signed the free-agent third baseman and he responded with perhaps the best season of his career. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Will Derek Bell, recently acquired from Houston, respond with at least a decent performance in the last year of his contract? 2. Does Henderson have another good year left in that ancient body of his? 3. Will the nation's sports media ever tire of having two men named Bobby Jones pitching for the same New York team? Can expect to play better Rick Reed's no Cy Young candidate, but he's a better pitcher than the 4.58 ERA he posted last season (albeit with an 11-5 record). Ditto for Bobby "righty" Jones, who racked up a 5.61 ERA before being shelved by shoulder tendinitis. If healthy, he'll shave approximately one-and-a-half runs off that ERA. Can expect to play worse "Rickey Henderson, this is your life!" Edgardo Alfonzo is unlikely to rap out nearly 70 extra-base hits again. Projected lineup LF Rickey Henderson 2B Edgardo Alfonzo C Mike Piazza 3B Robin Ventura 1B Todd Zeile RF Derek Bell CF Darryl Hamilton SS Rey Ordoñez
Mike Hampton Al Leiter Rick Reed Bobby Jones Bobby Jones Armando Benitez A closer look First, a meaningless trivia question, and its answer ... Q: Are the Mets the first team to have two players with the same first and last names? A: No, they're not. Assuming both editions of Bobby Jones are still around on Opening Day, the Mets will be the fourth such team. The first three were the 1949 Reds (two Dixie Howells), the 1962 Mets (two Bob Millers) and the 1990-'91 Mariners (two Ken Griffeys). However, if both Bobbys are in the rotation, it'll be the first time that has happened. (Thanks to Tom Ruane for this information.) Now, to more weighty matters. Spirits are high in Queens, and wherever else Mets fans reside. After all, the Mets won 97 games last season, and if there's anything New Yorkers love, it's a winner. But after a healthy dose of offseason moves, the question must be asked ... Will the Mets be winners in 2000? First, let's look at, not the moves, but the changes. 1B: John Olerud out, Todd Zeile in. Mets took a big hit here. Career-wise, Zeile gives up about 50 points in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and he's also three years older than Olerud, which means he's more likely to decline. RF: Roger Cedeño out, Derek Bell in. Cedeño's .396 on-base percentage and 66 stolen bases gave the Mets a fantastic one-two punch with Rickey Henderson, although Cedeño hit lower in the order at times. What the Mets won't miss is Cedeño's lack of power; in 453 at-bats, he managed only 31 extra-base hits. Unfortunately, there's no assurance that Bell will improve much on Cedeño's .406 slugging percentage. Everyone remember's Bell's 1998 campaign, in which he slugged .490 and drove in 108 runs. But consider: Bell's slugging percentages the last four seasons were .418, .438, .490 and .350. Over those four seasons, Bell's slugging percentage is .427, not appreciably better than what Cedeño did last year. And we shan't even discuss Bell's modest on-base percentage. Odds are the change in right field will have a negative effect. And that does it for the position changes. Before we move to the pitching staff, let's consider the entire lineup. But first, understand an important basic principle of player performance: When a player enjoys a season of significantly higher quality than what has come in recent years, he will likely regress somewhat the next season. Even if he's a young player. Catcher Mike Piazza's 1999 numbers were right in line with the rest of his career. We should expect more of the same in 2000, with perhaps a slight improvement in OBP if he's healthy. First base, we've discussed. It's unlikely that Todd Zeile will match John Olerud's production. At second base, Edgardo Alfonzo has established himself as the best young second baseman in the game. That said, Alfonzo showed uncharacteristic power last year -- 27 home runs, .502 slugging percentage -- and he'll likely regress somewhat this season. In four major league seasons, Rey Ordoñez has improved only marginally as a hitter, and any further improvement is likely to be -- you guessed it -- marginal. Third baseman Robin Ventura is 32 years old, and in 1999 he posted the best slugging percentage (.529) of his career, and the second-best on-base percentage (.379). He's a great player, but he won't be as great in 2000. Speaking of great players, Rickey Henderson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and last year he put up some of the finest numbers of his long, productive career. He's also 41, and is seriously in danger of a big-time dropoff. (His backup, Melvin Mora, is a 28-year-old career minor leaguer with exactly one good professional season on his resumé.) Center fielder Darryl Hamilton played brilliantly for the Mets after coming over from the Rockies late last season. Hamilton is 35 but has aged nicely, and should give the Mets similar production in center field to what they had a year ago. Derek Bell is in right field. What's striking about the Mets' lineup is that we can't expect significant improvement at even one of the eight positions. We should expect similar production at four positions -- catcher, shortstop, center field and right field -- and declines at the other four. Ah, but what of the pitching? There's no question, the addition of Mike Hampton gives the Mets a big boost. Let's look at the 1999 rotation, and the projected 2000 rotation: 1999 2000 Leiter Hampton Reed Leiter Rogers/Dotel Reed Yoshii Jones Hershiser JonesWhat's happened here? Essentially, Hampton and the two Bobby Jones replace Masato Yoshii (4.40 ERA in 1999), Orel Hershiser (4.58) and the combination of Kenny Rogers and Octavio Dotel (combined 4.74 ERA as Mets). Assuming the old Bobby Jones is healthy (he wasn't in 1999) and the new Bobby Jones benefits from getting out of Coors Field, the rotation should be at least somewhat better in 1999, and perhaps a lot better. Finally, the bullpen. Practically every Mets reliever pitched well last season, and that's unlikely to happen again. Expect a slight decline in this area. Add it all up, and what do we get? Given the almost certain decrease in run production, the improved rotation and the likely bullpen decline, it's hard to say that the Mets have gotten better overall. Based on (1) the talent they've got on the roster right now, and (2) the fact that the Mets overachieved last year, when you consider their runs scored and allowed, a projection of 90 victories for the Mets this season seems reasonable. So if the New Yorkers are going to challenge for a postseason berth, more moves are in order. Add another quality starter (David Wells?) and a hard-hitting outfielder (Jim Edmonds?), and you've got yourself a serious contender. Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Mets minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | |||||||||
