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 Wednesday, April 19
New York Yankees
 
 By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

Decade in review
10-year record:
851-702, .548 (2nd overall)
Total payroll:
$538.6 million (1st overall)

Division titles
Four (1994, 1996, 1998-99)

.500 or better seasons
Seven (1993 through 1999)

Best season: 1998
The greatest team ever? Possibly. The Yankees went 114-48 in the regular season and 11-2 in the postseason to win their second of three World Series championships in the decade.

Worst season: 1990
The nadir of the George Steinbrenner era, when The Boss kept signing mediocre (or worse) veterans to big free agent contracts at the expense of developing young players. Littered with the likes of Alvaro Espinoza (.224), Steve Balboni (.192) and Tim Leary (9-19), the Yankees had baseball's second-worst record at 67-95. Heck, Lee Guetterman led the the team with 11 wins.

Best trades
On July 28, 1995, the Yankees acquired David Cone from the Blue Jays for three pitchers named Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon. While those three combined to win six big-league games, Cone has gone 60-26 since joining the Yankees. Since coming over from Cincinnati for Roberto Kelly in 1993, Paul O'Neill never hit less than .300 until last season.

Worst trade
One reason the Yankees are good is they haven't made bad trades. In fact, it's difficult to find a terrible trade for the decade. They traded J.T. Snow to the Angels for two mediocre seasons of Jim Abbott (11-14, 9-8), but Snow isn't exactly Lou Gehrig.

Best player
Bernie Williams has been with the team since 1991 and became a regular in 1993. The team hasn't had a losing season since. Besides his all-around excellence, Williams became the rare farm product to get a chance to play.

Worst player
After leading the AL with 19 losses in 1990, Leary went 4-10 with a 6.49 ERA the following season. He had a 5.59 ERA in 1992 when they finally dumped him on the Mariners.

1999 in review
Record:
98-64, 3rd overall
Payroll:
$92.0 million, 1st overall

Runs scored:
900, 3rd in AL
Runs allowed:
731, 2nd in NL

What went right?
Derek Jeter hit .349, scored 134 runs and may have been the best player in the American League. David Cone threw a perfect game. Bernie Williams hit .342 and played in a career-high 158 games. Mariano Rivera was once again brilliant out of the bullpen. Oh, and the Yankees went 11-1 in the postseason to win the World Series.

What went wrong?
Darryl Strawberry got arrested in spring training for soliciting an undercover prostitute. Chuck Knoblauch had trouble throwing the ball to first base. Andy Pettitte's ERA's was higher than 5.50 in four of six months. Tino Martinez's slugging percentage dropped significantly for a second straight season. Roger Clemens pitched well, just not as well as he had the previous two seasons with the Blue Jays.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Making Orlando Hernandez the No. 1 starter in the playoffs. It wasn't an easy decision for Joe Torre, but he made the right one, as El Duque went 3-0 in four starts, allowing just five runs.

2. Not panicking over Knoblauch's throwing problems. Bad organizations pick at minor issues like this until they fester into a big scab. Torre smartly kept playing Knoblauch, letting him spark the offense from his leadoff spot and not worrying about the occasional errant toss to first base.

3. Conserving Mariano Rivera. Torre doesn't overuse Rivera the first half of the season, which keeps him strong for October. Because of this, Torre isn't afraid to use Rivera for two-inning stints in the postseason. Rivera didn't allow a run after July 21.

Looking ahead to 2000
Three key questions
1. Will age catch up to Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez, leaving gaping holes in two key slots in the batting order?

2. Will age catch up to David Cone and Roger Clemens, leaving gaping holes in two key slots in the rotation?

3. If the team is 43-40 at the All-Star break, a few games behind the Red Sox, will The Boss panic and trade away some of the promising prospects?

Can expect to play better
With regular time in left field, Ricky Ledee will improve upon his raw totals -- nine home runs, 40 RBI. He may even improve his .276 average and .476 slugging percentage.

Can expect to play worse
Jason Grimsley was an unexpected surprise with a solid year in middle relief, going 7-2 with a 3.60 ERA. His career ERA is 5.12 and he has almost as many walks as strikeouts. His strikeout/walk ratio in '99 was also a poor 49/40.

Man on the spot

Tino Martinez slugged .577 in in 1997, .505 in 1998 and .458 in 1999. Nick "The Stick" Johnson is hot on his heels if Tino keeps slumping.

Projected lineup
2B Chuck Knoblauch
SS Derek Jeter
RF Paul O'Neill
CF Bernie Williams
1B Tino Martinez
DH Darryl Strawberry/Jim Leyritz
C Jorge Posada
LF Ricky Ledee
3B Scott Brosius

Rotation/Closer
Orlando Hernandez
Roger Clemens
Andy Pettitte
David Cone
Eddie Yarnall
Mariano Rivera

A closer look
There's not much to say about the Yankees. They're another year older, which makes them a year more vulnerable. While the Bronx Bombers were mighty impressive in the playoffs, they won 98 games in the regular season, which wasn't so special -- the Braves and Diamondbacks won more and six other clubs won at least 94 games. So, the Yankees don't head into 2000 as overwhelming favorites to win it all.

When Roger Clemens pitched magnificently to win Game 4 of the World Series, it was a final legacy to a great career. How great? Well, besides winning another ring, the only thing left for Rocket is the 53 wins he needs to reach 300.

In fact, Clemens may be the greatest right-hander since World War II . Currently, that honor belongs to Tom Seaver. Yes, Nolan Ryan and Bob Gibson made the All-Century team, but Seaver had the more valuable career. Let's have a little fun and compare Seaver's career to Clemens', throwing in Greg Maddux for good measure.

The following charts include some statistics you know about: the pitcher's win-loss record, ERA and the team's overall record. LERA is simply the league ERA for that season. WAT tells us how many wins a pitcher gained above the expected total of an average pitcher for that team. For example, Clemens went 20-6 for the Blue Jays in 1997. Toronto went 68-68 in games Clemens didn't get the decision, making Clemens seven wins better than the average Blue Jays pitcher. RERA is relative ERA -- the pitcher's ERA divided by the league ERA (the lower the ratio, the better).

Tom Seaver
Year Team   W-L   ERA   Team    LERA  WAT  RERA
1967 N.Y.  16-13  2.76 61-101   3.38  4.7  .817
1968 N.Y.  16-12  2.20  73-89   2.99  3.6  .736
1969 N.Y. *25- 7  2.21 100-62   3.59  7.7  .616
1970 N.Y.  18-12 *2.82  83-79   4.05  3.2  .696
1971 N.Y.  20-10 *1.76  83-79   3.47  5.4  .507
1972 N.Y.  21-12  2.92  83-73   3.45  4.4  .846
1973 N.Y.  19-10 *2.08  82-79   3.66  4.9  .568
1974 N.Y.  11-11  3.20  71-91   3.62  1.4  .884
1975 N.Y. *22- 9  2.38  82-80   3.62  7.2  .657
1976 N.Y.  14-11  2.59  86-76   3.50  0.9  .740
1977 NY-C  21- 6  2.58          3.91  8.0  .660
1978 Cin   16-14  2.88  92-69   3.57 -1.2  .807
1979 Cin   16- 6  3.14  90-71   3.73  4.6  .842
1980 Cin   10- 8  3.64  89-73   3.60  0.1 1.011 
1981 Cin  *14- 2  2.54  66-42   3.49  5.7  .728
1982 Cin    5-13  5.50  61-101  3.60 -2.6 1.528 
1983 N.Y.   9-14  3.55  68-94   3.63 -0.9  .978
1984 Chi   15-11  3.95  74-88   3.99  3.3  .990
1985 Chi   16-11  3.17  85-77   4.15  2.3  .764
1986 Ch-Bs  7-13  4.03          4.18 -3.7  .964	
Totals   311-205  2.86               59.0

Roger Clemens
Year Team    W-L   ERA   Team   LERA  WAT  RERA
1984 Bos    9- 4  4.32  86-76   3.99  2.4 1.083
1985 Bos    7- 5  3.29  81-81   4.15  1.1  .793
1986 Bos  *24- 4 *2.48  95-66   4.18  9.7  .593
1987 Bos  *20- 9  2.97  78-84   4.46  6.5  .666
1988 Bos   18-12  2.93  89-73   3.97  2.0  .738
1989 Bos   17-11  3.13  83-79   3.88  3.2  .807
1990 Bos   21- 6 *1.93  88-74   3.91  7.5  .494
1991 Bos   18-10 *2.62  84-78   4.09  4.1  .641
1992 Bos   18-11 *2.41  73-89   3.94  5.1  .612
1993 Bos   11-14  4.46  80-82   4.32 -1.6 1.032
1994 Bos    9- 7  2.85  54-61   4.80  1.6  .594
1995 Bos   10- 5  4.18  86-58   4.71  1.5  .887
1996 Bos   10-13  3.63  85-77   4.99 -2.2  .727
1997 Tor  *21- 7 *2.05  76-86   4.56  8.1  .450
1998 Tor  *20- 6 *2.65  88-74   4.65  7.0  .570
1999 NYY   14-10  4.60  98-64   4.86 -0.5  .947
Totals    247-134 3.04               55.4

Greg Maddux
Year Team   W-L    ERA   Team   LERA  WAT  RERA
1986 Chi    2- 4  5.52  70-90   3.72 -0.7 1.484
1987 Chi    6-14  5.61  76-85   4.08 -4.0 1.375
1988 Chi   18- 8  3.18  77-85   3.45  5.9  .922
1989 Chi   19-12  2.95  93-69   3.49  1.7  .845
1990 Chi   15-15  3.46  77-85   3.79  0.9  .913 
1991 Chi   15-11  3.35  77-83   3.68  2.8  .910
1992 Chi  *20-11  2.18  78-84   3.50  5.6  .623
1993 Atl   20-10 *2.36 104-58   4.04  1.3  .584
1994 Atl  *16- 6 *1.56  68-46   4.21  4.1  .371
1995 Atl  *19- 2 *1.63  90-54   4.18  8.1  .390
1996 Atl   15-11  2.72  96-66   4.21 -0.4  .646
1997 Atl   19- 4  2.20 101-61   4.20  6.6  .524
1998 Atl   18- 9 *2.22 106-56   4.23  0.6  .525
1999 Atl   19- 9  3.57 103-59   4.56  1.9  .783
Totals    221-126 2.81               34.4

As you can see, Tom Seaver was a remarkable pitcher. He had only two seasons where his ERA was worse than the league average -- and really, only one bad season. Clemens is just as amazing, with two years that were barely worse than the league ERA. And Maddux has been better than average each season since his rookie campaign.

WAT (wins above team) tells an interesting story as well. Seaver was 59 wins better than his teams, a total that ranks fifth all time, behind Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson and Lefty Grove. And Grove was the only one of those who didn't pitch in the dead-ball era.

Clemens is close behind Seaver at 55.4 wins, giving him a chance to catch Grove's total of 62.9 (of course, he could drop a bit as well). Maddux is a little behind, but his total is still very impressive. Remember, WAT compares a pitcher's performance to how his team does when he isn't pitching. The Braves have been a great team, and those games when Maddux isn't pitching are being started by guys like John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood. It's fairly remarkable that Maddux is 22.2 wins above his team since joining the Braves.

Seaver and Clemens are, of course, very similar as pitchers, making their comparison interesting. Both are fastball pitchers with big, wide butts and strong legs. Seaver remained a fastball/slider pitcher his entire career. Clemens still relies on a fastball/splitter combo.

So, what can we expect of Clemens the rest of his career? Well, Seaver was 22 years old as a rookie in 1967. Clemens is 37, putting him where Seaver was at the start of the 1983 season. Seaver went on to win 47 more games to finish with 311 career victories.

At this point, it's possible to see Clemens doing even better. His relative ERAs are much better than Seaver's were at this point in their careers, and he's playing on a better team. While Clemens is unlikely to rebound to his 1997-98 dominance, I believe he has several good years ahead if he stays healthy.

300 wins? I think Clemens will get there. And if he does, and especially if he puts together one more big (20-win) season, I think he'll surpass Seaver as the best pitcher since Lefty Grove -- and perhaps become the greatest of all time .. with Greg Maddux in hot pursuit of the same title.

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor for ESPN.com.
 



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