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| | Thursday, December 9 | ||||||||||
ESPN.com | |||||||||||
Record: 77-85, 16th overall (tie) Payroll: $30.4 million, 23rd overall Runs scored: 841, 6th in NL Runs allowed: 846, 11th in NL What went right? Mike Lieberthal emerged as perhaps the top all-around catcher in the National League, or at least the most durable all-around catcher. Right fielder Bobby Abreu just kept getting better, and looks like a future All-Star, at least. Doug Glanville's OBP shot up to .376, and when you throw in his 34 steals (and only caught twice!), the Phillies had one of the NL's top leadoff men. What went wrong? Third baseman Scott Rolen maintained his high level of play, but he missed around 50 games with an injury. Curt Schilling, healthy and worked hard in 1997 and 1998, might have seen the results of those workloads, as he was limited to just 24 starts in 1999. The Phillies got virtually nothing from the bats of young middle infielders Desi Relaford and Marlon Anderson. Veteran "closer" Jeff Brantley spent most of the season on the DL, and replacement Wayne Gomes wasn't really up to the job. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Handing Marlon Anderson the job at second base. Never much of a hitter in the minors, Anderson broke through with a .306 batting average and excellent power for Class AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre in 1998. Installed as the Phillies' second baseman last spring, Anderson must have left his bat back in Scranton, as he posted a .292 OBP and slugged just .361. 2. Allowing Curt Schilling to throw 523 innings in 1997 and '98 combined. Yes, Schilling likes to pitch. Still, was it worth it? The Phillies weren't contenders in either of those seasons, and perhaps a slightly easier workload would have allowed Schilling to start more than 24 games in 1999. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Will the Phillies find room for super-prospect Pat "The Bat" Burrell? 2. Will Schilling be on the mound every five days? 3. Can the club get some production from the second basemen and shortstops? Can expect to play better Scott Rolen might not play better, but he'll almost certainly play more, which is good news for the Phils. None of the other hitters are likely to play significantly better than they did last year. Paul Byrd pitched terribly after the All-Star break (4-6, 5.61) and is likely to rebound if healthy. Can expect to play worse Unless Doug Glanville learned to hit at age 28, he'll be closer to Tony Womack than Rickey Henderson. Mike Lieberthal wasn't a star before 1999, and he's unlikely to be a star after 1999.
Projected lineup CF Doug Glanville LF Ron Gant/Pat Burrell RF Bob Abreu 3B Scott Rolen 1B Rico Brogna C Mike Lieberthal 2B Marlon Anderson SS Desi Relaford Rotation/Closer Curt Schilling Andy Ashby Paul Byrd Robert Person Randy Wolf Mike Jackson A closer look: For your pleasure, a pair of tests: Which of the following catchers is the Phillie, and which was recently named the American League's Most Valuable Player?
Age Games OBP Slug OPS
Player A 27 145 .363 .551 914
Player B 27 144 .356 .558 914
The Phillie is Player A, Mike Lieberthal. Player B is, of course, Pudge Rodriguez. That's not to say Lieberthal's as good as Rodriguez. But both won Gold Gloves, and it's a lot closer than you think.
OK, now which of the following right fielders is the Phillie, and which recently signed a six-year, $84 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers?
Age Games OBP Slug OPS
Player A 25 152 .446 .549 995
Player B 26 153 .384 .588 972
Again, Player A is the Phillie; more precisely, Player A is the brilliant Bobby Abreu, who is younger than Green and drew 43 more walks than Green last season.
If the Phillies roster currently included Ivan Rodriguez and Shawn Green, people would be excited, and for good reason. But the fact is that the Phillies do have Rodriguez and Green, or at least they've got reasonable facsimiles. In fact, given that Abreu is younger than Green and his career stats are somewhat stronger, one might argue that the Phillies are better off with Abreu.
It's easy to get carried away here. With the addition of Andy Ashby to a staff that already includes Curt Schilling and Paul Byrd, the Phillies will have three 1999 All-Stars in the rotation. But let's not forget that (1) Schilling has enjoyed only two healthy seasons out of the last six, and (2) Byrd finished last season with a 4.60 ERA, a bit higher than the league average. Lieberthal was over his head last year. And at this writing, there's still no position for Pat Burrell, who needs to be in the lineup if the Phillies are going to win.
Still, if there is a team poised to become the 2000 version of the 1999 Mets, it just might be these Phillies. A lot of things have to go right -- remember, they lost 85 games last year -- but at least they've got a shot.
Rob Neyer is a staff writer at ESPN.com.
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