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| | Thursday, April 20 San Francisco Giants | ||||||||||
| By Rob Neyer ESPN.com
Record: 86-76, 11th overall Payroll: $46.0 million, 17th overall Runs scored: 872, 3rd in NL Runs allowed: 831, 9th in NL What went right? Despite injuries that landed Barry Bonds and Ellis Burks on the disabled list for extended periods, the Giants still managed to score 872 runs, third behind the Diamondbacks (908) and the Rockies (906). First baseman J.T. Snow finally gave up switch-hitting and responded with a decent season at the plate. What went wrong? The aforementioned injuries didn't help, but even if Bonds and Burks had both played 162 games, it wouldn't have meant the 11 additional victories the Giants would have needed to win the wild card. The problem was the pitching, which was a huge disappointment. Young Russ Ortiz went 18-9 with a 3.81 ERA, but no other Giants starter posted an ERA below 4.64. The biggest disappointment was Mark Gardner, who opened the season as the club's No. 1 starter but finished his injury-plagued, 5-11 campaign with a 6.47 ERA. Also, Robb Nen wasn't his usual imposing self, as he allowed 79 hits in 72 innings and converted only 37 of 46 save opportunities. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Neglecting the pitching rotation. It's extremely difficult in this day and age to compete when, entering the season, you're depending on Mark Gardner and Kirk Rueter to anchor the rotation. Of course, the problem is that true No. 1 and 2 starters are extremely expensive unless you develop your own. The Giants did develop Russ Ortiz, but last year they needed another just like him. 2. Giving Marvin Benard and Rich Aurilia chances to succeed. Both have been with the organization and both paid dividends in 1999. Benard scored 100 runs and even showed some power, while Aurilia led National League shortstops with 22 home runs and 80 RBI. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. From 1990 through 1998, Barry Bonds spent exactly 20 days on the disabled list. In 1999, he was out of action for roughly ten weeks. Can the 35-year-old superstar take his place in the lineup nearly every day next season? 2. In early October, Robb Nen underwent surgery to repair a tear in the tendon around his right elbow. Will he regain his place as one of baseball's top closers in 1999? 3. Most important of all, can anyone around here pitch six or seven innings? If Ortiz falters -- and he was worked awfully hard in 1998 -- the rotation might completely collapse. Can expect to play better: Aside from the players who were hurt last year, the answer is "almost none," unless Bill Mueller rediscovers his albeit limited power stroke next season. We won't know about Nen until spring training, but his surgery wasn't considered serious. Can expect to play worse The aforementioned Marvin Benard was 28 last year, and is unlikely to repeat that performance when he's 29. Russ Ortiz won't go 18-9 again.
Projected lineup CF Marvin Benard 3B Bill Mueller LF Barry Bonds 2B Jeff Kent RF Ellis Burks 1B J.T. Snow SS Rich Aurilia C Doug Mirabelli/Bobby Estalella Rotation/Closer Russ Ortiz Kirk Rueter Livan Hernandez Shawn Estes Joe Nathan Robb Nen A closer look: We might call it The Great Experiment, but most indications are that it was no experiment -- J.T. Snow has, now and forever, given up switch-hitting. After years of struggling to hit left-handed pitching, prior to the 1999 season Snow agreed to ditch the switch, and bat exclusively left-handed. Why were the Giants so anxious for Snow to give up switch-hitting? Below are Snow's stats from 1996 through 1998 against both types of pitchers. "OPS" is shorthand for on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, and these days a good major league first baseman is in the 850 range for overall OPS.
OPS vs RHP OPS vs LHP
1996 800 523
1997 1010 560
1998 806 506
Pretty scary, don't you think? Or at least, that right-hand column was scary if you were Dusty Baker, the game was on the line, and Snow was stepping up to face a left-handed pitcher. So the Giants prodded and cajoled and pitched fits, and finally Snow agreed to stop switch-hitting. The results? Below is the same table, with 1999 added:
OPS vs RHP OPS vs LHP
1996 800 523
1997 1010 560
1998 806 506
1999 895 644
How bad a switch-hitter was Snow? Last season, he slugged .331 against left-handed pitchers ... and that constituted an improvement. That was, we should be sure to remember, only 169 at-bats, hardly a significant sample size. In 2000, Snow's performance against lefties might well improve, or it might decline. To this point, we just don't have enough data, though of course people will tell you that he's still "learning" to hit lefties.
However, if Snow continues to struggle to this extent against southpaws, there is one inescapable conclusion; he should not be allowed to play against them. While he is fairly effective against right-handed pitching -- or at least he is every other year -- you simply cannot have that kind of production from your first baseman when a left-hander is on the mound.
Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com.
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