Josh Beckett
Florida Marlins
Position: RHP Height: 6-4 Weight: 190 Born: 5/15/80
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
K |
W-L |
ERA |
SV |
| 2000 |
Kane County |
A |
13 |
12 |
59.1 |
45 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
61 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
0 |
| 2001 |
Brevard County |
A |
13 |
12 |
65.2 |
32 |
13 |
9 |
15 |
101 |
6-0 |
1.23 |
0 |
| 2001 |
Portland |
AA |
13 |
13 |
74.1 |
50 |
16 |
15 |
19 |
102 |
8-1 |
1.82 |
0 |
| 2001 |
Florida |
NL |
4 |
4 |
24.0 |
14 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
24 |
2-2 |
1.50 |
0 |
Background
Beckett was Florida's first-round pick in the 1999 draft, out of high school in Spring, Texas. The second overall pick, he signed for a $3.625 million bonus. He was the first high school right-hander drafted that high since Illinois prep Bill Gullickson in 1977. One of the most-heralded high school pitchers in the draft era, Beckett was compared favorably to previous Texas preps Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood.
|
The Rookies
|
|
Throughout spring training, John Sickels will provide in-depth reports on 10 of the hottest rookies to watch. Here's the complete schedule:
Feb. 26: Josh Beckett, Marlins
March 2: Carlos Pena, A's
March 5: Nick Johnson, Yankees
March 8: Sean Burroughs, Padres
March 12: Juan Cruz, Cubs
March 15: Mike Cuddyer, Twins
March 19: Morgan Ensberg, Astros
March 22: Kurt Ainsworth, Giants
March 26: Hank Blalock, Rangers
March 29: Jon Rauch, White Sox
|
Scouting report
Beckett is the prototype young pitcher: all of his offerings are above-average, and he throws strikes. His fastball is the headliner: hitting 97 at times and clocking a consistent 94-95. The pitch also has good movement; it is not a straight heater that hitters tee-off on. It takes more than a good fastball to succeed, however, and Beckett has the other attributes he needs. His curveball is outstanding, and he throws it for strikes. His changeup is very advanced considering his age and experience level, and he isn't afraid to use it. His mechanics are remarkably consistent and refined, and his control is very sharp. A fine overall athlete, Beckett fields his position decently, but needs more experience handling baserunners. He is confident and not awed by major-league competition.
Performance
His minor-league numbers are as great as his scouting reports. Many young pitchers get great press clippings based on raw talent, but aren't able to translate that into actual performance. But there are no such holes in Beckett's profile. His strikeout rate is very high, his walk rate is low. K/BB is the best long-term predictor of future performance and Beckett's 203/34 mark in the minors last year is about as good as it gets. His numbers indicate he is ready for major-league competition right now.
Health record
Injuries are the great bane of young pitchers, and Beckett has had a few problems. He was healthy in 2001, but 2000 was another matter: he missed half the season with a sore shoulder. The Marlins have been careful with him, keeping his workload reasonable and backing off at the first sign of trouble. The long-term health of his right labrum and shoulder muscles is the main obstacle he faces. Even if he isn't abused, the fact that he's a young pitcher makes him vulnerable.
What to expect
If he stays healthy, Beckett's spot in the Marlins rotation this year is assured. Based on both the numbers and scouting reports, there is no reason to expect anything but good performance from him. What shape that "good performance" takes is another matter, of course. The absolute best-case scenario would be young Doc Gooden-like numbers, and that is not impossible. The middle-case, and most likely scenario, are numbers considerably better than league average, perhaps similar to what Roy Oswalt was able to do last year in Houston.
It is unlikely that Beckett will struggle, if healthy. His velocity, control, and past performance are simply too good. A Rick Ankiel-like control collapse seems improbable, and Beckett's command is much better than Kerry Wood's at the same stage of development.
Basically, it all boils down to his shoulder and elbow. If Josh Beckett's arm holds up, he should be one of the best pitchers in baseball -- not just in the future, but this year.
John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
