|
Mike Dunleavy's reported decision to declare for the draft will shake up the lottery. And with Sunday as the deadline to add their names to the early-entry list, most underclassmen, junior college players and high school seniors who plan to declare have done so by now. A few names remain on NBA scouts checklists before the early-entry deadline, but none that should affect the draft to drastically.
|
Katz's Top 10
|
|
While Duke's Mike Dunleavy weighs a decision on whether or not to declare, he should consider that the consensus is that he would be in the top 10 in the NBA draft.
The lottery is 13 deep and the teams involved have been determined with the NBA playoffs set to begin this season. The only question is in what order, which will be unveiled May 19.
Chicago, New York, Cleveland, Miami, Washington, Denver, Memphis, Golden State, Houston, Milwaukee and Phoenix all have their own picks. Atlanta might not have its own pick if it's outside the top four. If that happens then the Los Angeles Clippers, through a trade, would have Atlanta's plus it's pick to give them two lottery selections.
And who will they be selecting?
The consensus top 10 of players who have declared for the draft is (in possibly close to this order depending on the needs of the teams selecting):
Yao Ming, C, Shanghai Sharks, China: The 7-6 Yao will be in Chicago on May 1 for a one-day workout at Loyola of Chicago for NBA teams. He has been released to play in the NBA next season. He's a lock for one of the top two picks in the draft. Yao's post skills aren't a question once he gets the ball, but his strength will be a concern when teams watch him workout.
Jason Williams, G, Jr., Duke: He's likely one of the top two picks with Yao. He's the most marketable player in the draft and probably the most coveted. Williams would be an impact player because of his ability to score and beat opponents off the dribble.
Drew Gooden, F, Jr., Kansas: He's considered by scouts to go somewhere from 3 to 7 because of his versatility. He can score inside and out and can get stronger. His frame is still filling out and scouts see the potential for him to be an impact player.
Curtis Borchardt, C, Jr., Stanford: His stock continues to soar because of his size, shot-blocking ability and evolving offensive game. Borchardt is still talking about returning to school for his senior season but don't expect that to occur if he's top 10.
Caron Butler, F, So., Connecticut: Butler is the best small forward in the draft and the player who best fits his position. His body has matured, as well as his off-court demeanor. He's a scorer inside on the offensive backboard and has the deep range. He won't drop below eight.
Dajuan Wagner, G, Fr., Memphis: He is being billed as a junior Allen Iverson. But he's stronger than the Answer and that might help him become a more resilient pro. He's not as susceptible to injury when he hurls his body on drives to the basket. Scouts don't see him dropping below eight.
Amare Stoudemire, C, HS, Cypress Creek HS, Orlando, Fla.: He'll definitely be the first high school senior taken in the draft. He's got the raw skills to be an active forward in the NBA. He can score from the free-throw line in to the basket and has decent ball skills. Teams won't let him fall out of the top 10.
Qyntel Woods, F, So., Northeast Mississippi JC: Originally signed to go to Memphis, Woods declared for the draft because his stock soared into the top 10. Woods is a power scorer and if he continues to work out well then he could climb into the top five.
Chris Wilcox, F, So., Maryland: Teams will want to see him workout to get a gauge at his stamina and overall post moves away from the open court of Maryland's transition game. But they won't be discouraged. He's not expected to drop and could be one of the top two power forwards taken in the draft with Gooden. Don't be surprised to see Wilcox go in the top five if he continues to work out as well as he played in the final month of the season.
Chris Marcus, C, Sr., Western Kentucky: Marcus could still technically return to college because he will graduate and earn back his fourth season of eligibility. It's a similar situation to what Fresno State's Melvin Ely did last season. Marcus is in a tough spot. He could go as high as the top five if he works out well or he could slide to the back end of the top 10.
|
NBA scouts don't necessarily advocate more early entrants, but do want the best underclassmen in the draft to ensure that the draft is filled with quality players at each position, especially in the first round. The players NBA scouts are still waiting on for an official word, either because they want them in the draft or simply expect them to declare and just want to know if they're going to be on the draft list are listed below. (But, there could still be a few wild cards not listed):
Underclassmen who could make a difference
Mike Dunleavy, Jr., F, Duke: The word at Duke was that he wouldn't declare. But it now looks like the Blue Devils will lose a third junior to the NBA. If he makes reports official on Saturday, he'll be a top-five pick.
Chris Jefferies, Jr., F, Fresno State: New head coach Ray Lopes expects Jefferies to declare but no word yet has come from the Bulldogs' forward. He's in his fourth year of school after transferring from Arkansas and a knee injury kept him from finishing the season. He could be a possible first-round pick if he declares.
Uche Okafor, Jr., C, Missouri/College of Southern Idaho: He never got eligible at Missouri and wasn't able to develop his post skills more than a season of practice. He's big but probably not tested enough for a team to take him in the second round.
Marlon Parmer, Jr., G, New Mexico: The former Lobo, booted off by Fran Fraschilla, and then not retained by Ritchie McKay is expected to make his plans official to declare. He's not considered a first-round pick, not even a second-round pick but would take his chances.
Robert Whaley, Fr., F, Barton County (Kan.): Whaley was originally signed to go to Missouri but was dismissed because of legal troubles. His advisors would rather he not declare but it's still a possibility, considering he might have trouble getting onto a Division I team in a year.
Julien Sensley, Fr., F, Southern Nevada College: He was signed to go to Cal, then surfaced at Iona and Fresno State. He's not ready but he might think he is for the draft. If he declares, then he won't be playing for George Tarkanian at Southern Nevada College. And he might not be drafted if he does declare.
Sani Ibrahim, HS, C, Oak Hill Academy, Mouth of Wilson, Va.: Ibrahim likely wouldn't get drafted if he declared. He's not a lock to be an impact player in college but eligibility could be another reason to drive him to the draft. If not the draft, then he's a candidate for junior college.
Seniors who should be picked
Here are the top 30 seniors likely to go in the two-round draft (once again this is likely to fluctuate based on how many underclassmen and foreigners enter the draft, pushing seniors further into the second round). In no particular order:
Matt Barnes, F, UCLA: His size at 6-7 and his handle and shooting touch make him a possible two guard in the NBA and he did enough to warrant a second-round look.
Lonny Baxter, F, Maryland: Is a likely second-round pick, but the more power forwards who keep declaring the more he gets pushed down in the draft. He'll have to play well in Chicago or in the workouts to improve his stock.
Randy Holcomb, F, San Diego State: He had the best dunk of the Portsmouth weekend, and scouts loved his activity around the offensive backboard, his left-handed touch and ability to handle the ball. He gave himself a chance to get into the second round.
Luke Recker, G, Iowa: He really helped himself getting into the second round and gave himself a chance to be in the first round if he plays well in Chicago. He's a likely invited guest to that party after playing hard and making shots.
Robert Archibald, F, Illinois: Scouts loved his frame and size even before he got to Portsmouth. He did enough to where he could get to Chicago and should be somewhere in the second round.
John Salmons, G, Miami: He wasn't as consistent, but scouts have loved his pro potential all season. He can and has played four of the five positions. Scouts don't expect him to go unnoticed in the second round.
Aaron McGhee, F, Oklahoma: He was erratic as a scorer, but he's still a tough player who can bang and defend. He's the kind of sleeper pick that could go in the second round.
Chris Christofferson, C, Oregon: He's a large man and he's big enough that someone will likely try and nab him in the second round. He helped himself throughout the season by logging major minutes.
Jobey Thomas, G, Charlotte: When he's on, he's one of the better shooters available. He didn't wow everyone, but he's on the scouts' radar enough to get a serious look in the second round.
Andy Ellis, F, Texas Tech: Ellis really helped himself by making shots from the 3-point line in throughout the camp. He ran the floor well and some scouts were talking about him potentially sneaking up into the late first if he keeps playing well.
Jannero Pargo, G, Arkansas: The scouts were talking about his 18-assist game at Portsmouth and his ability to make shots. He wasn't shy about gunning every few possessions and he has the skills to be a second-round pick.
Maurice Baker, G, Oklahoma State: He skipped out on Portsmouth and didn't have a good second half to his senior season because of injury. But he's still a talent. He will get drafted in the second round because of his ability to play either guard spot and, when healthy, his knack for scoring.
Ryan Humphrey, F, Notre Dame: He bowed out of Portsmouth but will need to prove he's worth a second-round pick in Chicago. He became a much better finisher with Chris Thomas on the court and needs to show he's got more ball skills for a big man.
Jason Jennings, C, Arkansas State: Scouts wanted to see him Portsmouth but he no-showed. He has to get to Chicago and prove he's worth taking as a second-round pick. He's big and that will carry him a long way in the draft.
Kelly Wise, F, Memphis: He didn't have as consistent a season as he should have, but he's still a defender, rebounder and has the potential to be a better offensive player. He should get a serious look in the second round.
Melvin Ely, F, Fresno State: Big man who can play power forward. Scouts have followed his development over the last five seasons. Gets kudos for staying and improving this season.
Chris Marcus, C, Western Kentucky: True center who could end up being better than Michael Olowokandi. Broken foot didn't seem to bother him when he returned for the last part of the season and the NCAAs. He has always been the top big man.
Dan Dickau, G, Gonzaga: He's a heady point guard who can shoot as well as any guard when he's on. He's tough and his defense shouldn't hurt him too much in the draft. He's somewhere in the first round.
Steve Logan, G, Cincinnati: Size might hurt his case but he's still tough and he can score from anywhere. He's a very good defender and could get somewhere in the late first round.
Darius Songalia, F, Wake Forest: He's a tough forward who has a knack for being around the ball, is a tough banger and decent rebounder to make him a likely second-round pick. Late in the first wouldn't be a total reach.
Predrag Savovic, F, Hawaii: He really helped himself with another stellar season, especially shooting the ball. He's likely somewhere in the second round.
Juan Dixon, G, Maryland: His stock soared during the tournament and the scouts are a buzz about taking him somewhere in the middle of the first round. He found ways to score all over the court and is a deft defender.
|
Foreign Contingent
|
|
Foreign players who want to be the next Pau Gasol, who should be in the draft and are candidates to be drafted:
Yao Ming, China
Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Italy
Luis Scola, Spain
Bostjan Nachbar, Italy
Lazaros Papadopoulos, Greece
Jiri Welsch, Slovenia
Mario Stojic, Italy
Andreas Glyniadakis, Greece
Maybyner Hilario, Brazil
Juan Navarro, Spain
David Andersen, Italy
|
Lynn Greer, G, Temple: He can score, doesn't matter where or how, he can score. Greer probably goes somewhere in the second. He's also one of the best character players in the draft.
Vincent Yarbrough, F, Tennessee: Flew under the radar this season but still has the scorer's mentality. He skipped Portsmouth, which didn't help him, but he's got to do well in Chicago to create a buzz draft day.
Fred Jones, G, Oregon: He backed out of Portsmouth, too, but didn't need to be there because he's an athlete who can jump out of the gym. He'll find a home late in the first or early second.
Dan Gadzuric, F, UCLA: Was another no-show in Portsmouth but is also an intriguing pick in the late first round or somewhere in the early to mid second. Gadzuric still hasn't reached his potential but there are few big men as athletic.
Chris Owens, F, Texas: Owens tore his ACL in January and might not be ready to go until the fall, but that doesn't mean he won't be drafted. He'll still probably go somewhere in the second round.
Sam Clancy, F, USC: Clancy was a mid to late first round pick last season and he hasn't changed in the draft. His offensive game got better but he's still got the undersized label that dogs him from going higher.
Tayshaun Prince, F, Kentucky: He's a shooter and a scorer and good enough to get into the first round. Prince might not be the strongest ‘Cat, but he's quick enough to get off his shot and will find a home before round two.
Udonis Haslam, F, Florida: Haslam is tough to figure. He's a beast in the lane but the question that follows him is can he do it in the NBA. He's still considered on the smaller size for power players, but he will go in the second round.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. He covers the NBA draft for ESPN.com and ESPN and will have periodic reports until the June 26 draft.
| |
|
