| | "The only time you don't make a change is when you win a championship," Lenny Wilkens said when his team broke training camp. "Last time I looked, none of us had won anything recently," Wilkens added.
He was talking about his Atlanta Hawks, who went 31-19 last season, then were swept by New York in the second round of the playoffs.
|  | | Can the Pacers do some damage in Larry Bird's final season as coach? |
More than any team in this division once ruled by Michael Jordan, the Hawks have changed. They dumped their starting backcourt of Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock, put a hard edge on their "goody two shoes" reputation, beefed up their front line.
Will that be enough?
Much depends on rookie Jason Terry, one of three point guards drafted in lottery territory and destined to be starters by season's end if they are as precocious as their general mangers suspect. But while Terry learns his craft, Bimbo Coles looks like the starter. Baron Davis in Charlotte finds David Wesley battling to keep his job and Andre Miller has encountered resistance trying to unseat Brevin Knight.
Davis steps in with the most dangerous team in the Central. Charlotte's Bob Bass turned things around in the lockout-shortened season, acquiring center Elden Campbell and swingman Eddie Jones from the Lakers for disgruntled Glen Rice. The Hornets barely missed the playoffs after Paul Silas took them on a strong April run. Now, they have a chance to stop Indiana from winning its second straight Central title.
Unhappily for the Pacers, additions they made during the offseason were merely cosmetic -- a new arena and a 19-year-old high school kid (Jonathan Bender). Beefy Antonio Davis is gone. Mark Jackson and Reggie Miller are at a dangerous basketball age in their mid-30s. Chris Mullin is fading. Rik Smits suffers the agony of da feet and Larry Bird is walking away in July. The aging Pacers slipped last season, unwilling to play as generously as they had in Bird's honeymoon season. They showed their vulnerability to speed when the Knicks whipped them in the East finals. Now, the entire division will try run them into sawdust.
Cleveland is an interesting antagonist after unseating general manager Wayne Embry and coach Mike Fratello, his rival, then installing Jim Paxson as GM and Randy Wittman in his first head coaching assignment. They also dumped Derek Anderson on the Clippers. In addition to No. 8 pick Miller they added guard Trajan Langdon (11th) and forwards Lamond Murray (for Anderson) and Mark Bryant (free agent). The Cavs' season, however, will depend on the health of center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who comes back from his fourth foot fracture, and the success of Shawn Kemp's latest quick-loss weight program. He reported at a stunning 318 pounds, way too much change for anybody's good, especially for a team that has been told to play a speed game that should be more appealing to unhappy fans.
The Cavs will bang heads with the Hawks, who, in addition to No. 10 pick Terry, drafted center-forward Cal Bowdler (17) and Dion Glover (20), brought in Jimmy Jackson as an insurance policy on the bizarre Isaiah Rider, then dealt two first-round picks they didn't need to the Clippers for center-forward Lorenzen Wright. Meanwhile, the Hawks are learning to run again and struggling to find a rhythm in their half-court game.
Then there's Detroit, which may have gotten lucky with the threatened retirement of flaky center Bison Dele. The only major roster pickup for the Pistons was free agent guard Michael Curry and they will miss Joe Dumars, who retired to the front office. But a quiet offseason pickup, assistant coach Mo McHone, means profound change in Detroit. The Pistons, taking their cue, are running. So committed is head coach Alvin Gentry, he delayed installing half-court sets so his players won't have a bailout.
However, though they have Grant Hill in good form, plus Christian Laettner and Jerry Stackhouse, the Pistons will have a tough time winning a high playoff seed. Also, they've got Toronto and Milwaukee banging on the door behind them.
The Raptors became very interesting last season when they challenged for their first playoff finish. Now they've added Antonio Davis to their front line they are formidable with holdovers Charles Oakley and Kevin Willis. One -- or all three -- will play a lot of center unless rookie Alek Radojevic (12th pick) develops very quickly. Meanwhile, Butch Carter has his brilliant young talents, Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady. Dell Curry provides firepower off the bench. On the down side, Toronto did not appreciably upgrade its point guard position with the signing of Muggsy Bogues. Alvin Williams will continue to start.
Milwaukee lost its free agent Currys, Michael and Dell and sent Armen Gilliam and Chris Gatling to Orlando, the league's newest dumping ground. George Karl compensated by acquiring J.R. Reid (free agent), Danny Manning and Dale Ellis (trade), but if the Bucks are going to be better it will be because of deals Karl made last season when he acquired forward Tim Thomas from Philadelphia and point guard Sam Cassell from New Jersey. Still, the Bucks won't go far without a center. Karl already decided that Ervin (No Magic) Johnson doesn't want to start, but he probably didn't bother to ask him. Scott Williams and Reid will fill in.
So much for teams that can make the playoffs.
Chicago has a dance team called the LuvaBulls, a foundation known as the CharitaBulls and team that might as well be called the TerriBulls. General manager Jerry Krause knows he didn't fool anyone by bringing back Will Perdue and B.J. Armstrong, fringe contributors from championship teams and by acquiring veteran guard Hersey Hawkins. Change? That's chump change.
No. 1 pick Elton Brand is a nice prospect but, face it: 6-8 power forwards don't turn around franchises. It's another long year for Tim Floyd, another high draft pick for the Jerrys. Let's see if any of the top free agents want their money next summer.
So, that's the field.
How are they going to finish?
Try this: Indiana's old legs give way down the stretch. Paul Silas forces Derrick Coleman and Anthony Mason to coexist. The Hornets catch the Pacers and win the division. Cleveland holds off late-blooming Atlanta with a deep pool of scorers. Grant Hill visibly tires at the end and the Pistons fade.
1, Charlotte; 2, Indiana; 3, Cleveland; 4, Atlanta; 5, Detroit; 6, Toronto; 7, Milwaukee. 8 (with a reverse bullet), Chicago.
Jeffrey Denberg, who covers the NBA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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