By Andy Katz ESPN.com The selection committee got what it wanted out of the Final Four in the end: three of the four teams have name recognition (Michigan State, North Carolina and Florida) and the fourth can be considered a Cinderella. While even the Tar Heels' Ed Cota said he was surprised that North Carolina had to face Stanford in the second round, the committee's seeding system didn't end up being that out of touch. It's hard to fault the committee for seeding North Carolina and Wisconsin No. 8, even though they both had played tough non-conference schedules and had the talent to go deeper. Thirteen losses each by the Tar Heels and Badgers were too hard to ignore on Selection Sunday.
Michigan State: The Spartans haven't relinquished this spot throughout the tournament Watch, but they have given their fans a scare. The difference in those clinching second-half runs has been their ability to go from playing not to lose to playing to win. Michigan State's passive play in the first halves vs. Utah, Syracuse and Iowa State made the Spartans look vulnerable. They can't afford to get down to Wisconsin in the first half. Teams that do get frustrated and end up trying to run away from the Badgers -- which is usually the worst way to try to beat Wisconsin. But until the Spartans show they can't recover in a second half, it's hard not to go with Michigan State. Premier player Joseph Forte, North Carolina: While the Tar Heels are still a long shot to win the title, the freshman guard emerged during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight as the best scorer in the bracket. Forte scored 28 points in a victory over Tulsa and made every shot look easier than the previous one. The Tar Heels need his hot hand to get past Florida. He'll have to shoot quicker, with Florida likely trapping Ed Cota and Jason Capel. That should leave Forte a quick pass away from a jump shot, but that may play to his strength. Tulsa tried to rush Carolina's guards, but Forte found himself open when the Golden Hurricane couldn't recover before he lofted 3-pointers or drove for floating jumpers off the glass. Climbing up Florida: The Gators were thought of as a team that would go deeper in this tourney than a year ago, but only by a round, to the Elite Eight. Next season's team, assuming Mike Miller returns for his junior year, was supposed to be the Gators' year to win the title. But, remember, Arizona won the 1997 title a year before the Wildcats were thought to be ready for a run. The Gators played with more purpose in the NCAA Tournament than they did in their brief experience in the SEC tournament. Florida's versatility, depth and commitment to Billy Donovan's style make the Gators a legitimate title contender. Falling down Purdue: The Boilermakers never got the credit they deserved during the regular season (especially in the Weekly Word), but their run as a Big Ten power may take a brief hiatus. Purdue benefited from a senior-dominated team, and for that reason, Gene Keady has a retooling job ahead next season. The Boilermakers lose five seniors out of their top six, including banger Brian Cardinal and steady scorer Jaraan Cornell. Keady's players usually buy into his system over the course of four years, which is why it may take a season to get back to the top of the Big Ten. Developing that toughness and grit won't happen as quickly with an overhauled roster. Five to watch Mike Miller, Florida: The Gators' once-passive forward has taken over as their go-to player when they needed him most. His star is rising with each game. He's put himself in a position where he has a decision to make -- the NBA draft lottery or return for a junior season as a potential Player of the Year choice.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have one of their better recruiting classes, but Eddie Sutton may have to wade through a rocky rebuilding year. Losing Doug Gottlieb, Brian Montonati, Desmond Mason, Joe Adkins and Glendon Alexander won't make staying atop the Big 12 easy. Syracuse: The Orangemen, like Oklahoma State, benefited from experience this season but face a transition year after losing Etan Thomas, Ryan Blackwell and Jason Hart -- the core of this year's Sweet 16 team. Iowa State's frontcourt: Marcus Fizer faces a tough decision -- be a top-five pick in the NBA draft or return to Ames, Iowa. With signee Earnest Brown a likely early entry candidate, the Cyclones may be searching for a junior college forward to fill the scoring void. Gonzaga without Richie Frahm and Matt Santangelo: No team outside of Michigan State, Duke and Purdue has had as much tournament success the last two seasons with a pair of impact players. Gonzaga will go with Dan Dickau (a transfer from Washington) at the point, but shooting guard could be an interesting competition. The Bulldogs will still be a favorite in the WCC, but won't be the same without the confidence of Frahm and Santangelo on the perimeter. LSU at center: The Tigers feel secure that Stromile Swift will honor his word and return for his junior season. But senior Jabari Smith is gone, leaving too much attention on Swift if the Tigers can't get an active center with some scoring punch to go next to him. What worked Wisconsin's backdoor cut: The Badgers' offense doesn't get enough respect, but Mike Kelley seemed to always find an open Andy Kowske or Mark Vershaw for a layup or dunk. The players got behind Purdue's defense enough in the second half to pull away from the Boilermakers. Tulsa's commitment to Bill Self: The Golden Hurricane have found a way to get more money (and we don't a mean a Rollie Massimino/UNLV-type account) to keep Self in Tulsa rather than see him go to Nebraska or Georgia Tech. The administration has to make sure everything jibes with the board of trustees and the president. Once it does, Self will have a new six-year contract, close to $700,000 or $800,000. Julius Peppers' presence for the Tar Heels: With Brendan Haywood and Kris Lang ailing throughout the weekend, the Tar Heels needed another forward to come in and rebound, set screens and finish around the basket. Peppers was the answer in each case. He's not flashy, but he gives the Tar Heels a toughness they lacked earlier in the season. Florida's decision on a point: Brett Nelson assumed the point guard role after Billy Donovan waited for him to emerge as the best candidate. He had toyed with playing Teddy Dupay and Justin Hamilton at the position -- and still will -- but Nelson made sure the position starts and stops with him. Making Nelson the point guard finally gave the Gators a set rotation at their most important position. Morris Peterson's leadership: OK, so we've given plenty of praise to Mateen Cleaves over the past few weeks, but Peterson deserves his due for pushing the Spartans past the Cyclones with big shot after big shot late in the second half. The Spartans didn't have a clear-cut, go-to guy with Peterson and Cleaves sharing the role, but Peterson assumed the lead in the win over Iowa State. What didn't work Larry Eustachy's temper: Losing his cool at the end of the Iowa State-Michigan State game was an unfortunate way for the Cyclones to finish the season. Eustachy regretted the ejection, but his team's sudden collapse was hard to explain. Gonzaga's shooting touch: Credit Purdue's defense, but when Gonzaga did get an open look at the basket, the Bulldogs weren't even close. Richie Frahm struggled to find his stroke in the Sweet 16, and Casey Calvary got frustrated too easily in taking poor shots at the top of the perimeter. David Shelton's 3-point attempt for Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane had forced a few turnovers, cutting North Carolina's lead to three with under 10 seconds left. Marcus Hill had been the hot hand, but Shelton felt compelled to force a 3-pointer by leaning in for a foul. He didn't get either -- the shot or the call -- and Tulsa lost. LSU's decision to run with the Badgers: The Tigers, who tried to get out and force the tempo, played right into Wisconsin's hands, ending the first half with 14 points and 14 turnovers. The Tigers never got Stromile Swift or Jabari Smith into the game and were stuck trying to play catch-up against Wisconsin. That's the worst possible position to be in when playing the Badgers. Tennessee's ability to close out a game: North Carolina simply took the game away from the Volunteers in the final two minutes. Tennessee got frazzled and never regained its composure once the Tar Heels got back into the game. Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. |
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