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| Cinderella stories like Kurt Warner come along once in a generation in the NFL. But here in college basketball, we get a new one every year. In case you're new to the Cinderella Watch, here's how it works:
We pick eight teams a week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons: 1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. 2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance. 3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the lowest vote-getter each week will be removed from the Watch, no questions asked. Find out if you have the same compliments or gripes about the Watch as other ESPN.com users by clicking here -- user responses run every Wednesday. RPI rankings are as of Saturday, Jan. 22 and records are through Sunday, Jan. 23.
The Flyers got off to a fast start, winning their first eight games. Although losses to Cleveland State and Saint Louis took some of the shine off Dayton, it has rebounded to win five of its last six. The Flyers have balanced scoring (six players average 8.9 points or more per game) and shoot 3s pretty well, a good trait to have when you're trying to shoot down the big boys. Freshman Brooks Hall leads the way, shooting 42.7 percent from behind the arc.
The Mid-American Conference is a pretty close facsimile of the WAC or Atlantic 10, only without the TV contract. Kent made the NCAA Tournament last year by winning the MAC tourney, but would have been a likely at-large bid had it not earned the automatic entry. The same can be said this season. A sterling RPI ranking is only the beginning -- the Golden Flashes put points on the board (78.4 per game) while playing stingy defense, allowing 65.4 points a contest.
Few teams are as hot as Long Beach State. Winners of 10 in a row, the 49ers' relatively low RPI (they only have 10 wins against Division I teams) will hurt them. But they've salted away wins over USC and Kansas State (at Manhattan, Kan.) and are off to a fast start in the Big West. It could come down to the conference tournament against New Mexico State -- Long Beach State won the only scheduled regular-season meeting between the two teams 78-66 on Jan. 20.
Speaking of the Aggies, we couldn't decide between them and Long Beach State so we picked 'em both. New Mexico State's profile is built up by two wins over in-state rival New Mexico, and by a schedule in which the Aggies haven't fattened up on easy competition. Lou Henson's crew played 12 non-conference games, with 10 coming against teams from major conferences.
Last year, Gonzaga rushed out of the West Coast Conference to stun Minnesota, Stanford and Florida en route to a West Regional final showdown with Connecticut -- and for that are no longer considered Cinderellas. But we have another entry from the WCC. Pepperdine has an identical record as Gonzaga this season and a comparable RPI (38 vs. 41). The Waves could have folded after a three-game swoon in late December (including a heartbreaking loss to UCLA when Craig Lewis' putback at the buzzer, which would have forced overtime, was waved off). Instead, they've rattled off six straight wins. The Waves face Gonzaga on Feb. 3 in Spokane, Wash., to determine a conference front-runner.
So much for building on success. St. Bonaventure beat Temple for just the fifth time in 40 career meetings and followed it up by blowing a 10-point lead over Fordham in the final seven minutes. But the Bonnies are taking care of business in the Atlantic 10, which could be down to three potential at-large candidates in St. Bonaventure, Temple and Dayton. The Bonnies could be riding a five-game winning streak when they travel to Dayton on Feb. 12.
After missing in action for the last two seasons, the Green Wave is back. Because the strength of Conference USA is in the other division, Tulane should be able to push its win total well past 20 barring a major collapse. That will help its seeding in the C-USA tourney, pushing a potential confrontation with Cincinnati as far away as possible.
OK, we know they're ranked. OK, we know they're from a major conference. But new coach Kevin Stallings rubs off a little Cinderella residue from his time at Illinois State, and Vandy has already knocked off SEC powers Tennessee and Florida while pushing Kentucky to overtime before losing. Three conference road games over the next 10 days should tell us if Vandy is a conference favorite (and no longer a Cinderella).
Greg Collins is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Cinderella Watch feedback Weekly Watch: Every second counts Projecting the NCAA Tournament Video Dunks of the Week  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
