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| | Friday, February 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wisconsin at No. 5 Michigan State
Earlier this year, Purdue coach Gene Keady raised the issue of physical play in the Big Ten, and opined that the body contact throughout the Big Ten season may hurt the conference in the postseason. It was no coincidence that the Boilermakers had just had a tough game against Wisconsin when Keady spoke out. The Badgers are the Temple of the Big Ten, and nobody -- coaches, fans or players -- wants to play them. The reason is because the Badgers make the game a battle to do the easy things, like dribble, make passes, and execute cuts. They bump you, hand-check you, lock you to the floor with a forearm, and generally make little things that you usually take for granted very difficult. They are the equivalent of the over-energized guy in a YMCA pickup game who face-guards you the whole game, and could care less about taking a shot. It's painful to be guarded by that guy, and it's painful to play Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is second in the Big Ten in scoring defense, which says a lot about the Badgers' deliberate offense in addition to its physical defense. The Badgers run a "movers and blockers" offense that is a triangle-type system. There are two or three "blockers" on the floor, and the remaining players run off the blockers' maze of screens. Wisconsin does a wonderful job of reading screens, slipping screens and looking for the right guy in any screening situation -- and man do they set some physical picks. The problem is, even with the disciplined execution of the Badgers' system, they have problems scoring, and only put up 59 points per game in conference action, 10th in the Big Ten. A major issue for the Badgers will be the glass, as Wisconsin is a below-average rebounding team in the conference. The players to watch for Wisconsin are Mark Vershaw, Andy Kowske and Mike Kelley. Vershaw came into this season in great condition, and has performed very consistently on a team that struggles to support him. Kowske plays hard, but has had some tough times on the road compared to his play at home. If you like kids who bust their tail every play, Kelley is fun to watch. He's smart, savvy and is willing to run through a wall to keep his man from scoring. Michigan State is showing flashes of the team I thought they would be in September. The Spartans are rebounding the ball with alarming regularity, and that should scare the dickens out of opposing teams. With the Spartans' rebounding ability, they not only eliminate opponents' high-percentage second shots on the defensive end, but they can offset a poor shooting night by cleaning up a high percentage of their own misses.Try to fathom this: Michigan State outrebounds its Big Ten opponents by an average margin of 17 boards per game! Andre Hutson (7.3 rpg), Morris Peterson (7.2), A.J. Granger (6.1) and Charlie Bell (5.1) are all in the league's top 20 rebounders in conference games. That is scary. Bell has been magnificent of late. He's running the court with the knowledge that Mateen Cleaves will find him, he is working off screens to get open, he's looking for his shot, and he is attacking the offensive glass without having to be concerned with ball-handling responsibility. Bell is the ubiquitous "X-Factor" for Michigan State, and could be their best player in March. Two questions come to mind with the Spartans: Can they get consistent play from the bench (Jason Richardson, Mike Chappell and Al Anagonye), and will Cleaves stop turning the ball over so much when he should run through all the options of a set play, rather than try to be the hero? The answer to the first part will be determined throughout the remainder of the season. The answer to the second part is "yes" because Cleaves already is a hero and is admired by all those who know the game. Once he plays for 40 minutes as smart and savvy as he truly is, Michigan State is national championship material. Watch for two things in this game: 1. Michigan State's patience in the halfcourt: The Spartans will not be able to run on every possession, and if they are not patient in getting good shots in halfcourt sets, they will spend twice as much time on defense as on offense. 2. Cleaves' decision-making: He is doing a better job at picking his spots, but needs to do better. This is a game where Michigan State needs to be concerned only with what they are doing, not what Wisconsin is doing. UCLA at No. 4 Arizona
I hate it when the term "must win" is overused, because every game should be approached as a must win. However, this game would be a great win for UCLA, which comes off a thrashing Thursday night at the hands of Arizona State. Ad given how tough the Bruin schedule is coming down the stretch, this would be a major boost. UCLA has the Arizona schools, the Oregon schools and Cal/Stanford all in a row, followed by a homestand against the Washington schools. It is not Arizona and Stanford that will determine the Bruins' fate. The truth is, a win against either would be great, but the key is to run the table on the rest of the schedule. All of UCLA's games, with the exception of Stanford and Arizona, are winnable games. This UCLA team has the talent to beat everyone outside of Stanford and Arizona -- the question is, do they have the will? Arizona is a team to revere for the way they have handled adversity -- the distraction of Luke Recker's coming and going, the defections of bench players and Richard Jefferson's injury. Not to mention the fact that Gilbert Arenas isn't old enough to vote, yet he continues to school older and more experienced players, and Jason Gardner is the most mature freshman in basketball. Gardner never hangs his head, and seems to never get down, which is a great quality for a leader. When his teammates look to Gardner, they take with them the confidence that he's in control of himself and what he's doing, and they can concentrate on their jobs. He rarely gets into bad situations (sometimes he takes it too far on the break, but who cares? He can't do everything right.) This kid knows about winning, and plays with pressure as if its nothing. Arenas has a nose for the ball and can be an outstanding defender. As Jefferson's replacement, Luke Walton basically took a Hippocratic oath for this team: go in and do no harm. He's a very good passer and ball-handler, and does not make many mistakes. He is not a scorer, but has looked for his shot when ignored by the defense. The difference in this team, and the guy that makes the Wildcats a threat for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, is Loren Woods. He is the most important player in the Pac-10 right now, and changes the game when he is in there. Woods runs the court better than any center in the nation, and puts tremendous pressure on opposing big guys to keep up with him. He not only creates opportunities for himself in transition, but he flattens out the defense by running from end to end so rapidly. Woods is among the nation's best shot-blockers at 4.1 per game while averaging less than two fouls per game, and has yet to foul out. Anyone who questioned his toughness should be satisfied now. UCLA is a team trying to figure out what it should be. Their defensive intensity and offensive execution vary from game to game. The Bruins have to believe in what they are doing, and believe in each other, or they will continue to struggle. The Bruins do not have consistent guard play, and it is anybody's guess whether Dan Gadzuric will be a monster or a mouse in the middle. When the Bruins are good, they are very good. When the Bruins are in a funk, forget it. Earl Watson is an outstanding defender, but his detractors say he is not a true point guard. Well, so what -- Kenyon Martin isn't a true center. Watson can play the position just fine, and has had some great games. Jerome Moiso is can dominate games, and he is using his lefty perimeter shooting ability to compliment his inside strength. Moiso is the Bruins' second best player behind freshman Jason Kapono, who is has by far the most basketball knowledge and understanding on the team. Gadzuric has the size and athletic ability to run and bang with Woods, but he has not shown the basketball instincts and understanding of the game to do it consistently. Earlier this season, Arizona won in a 15-point laugher. Michael Wright had 22 points and 8 rebounds, and UCLA threw the ball away like it was a hand grenade with the pin pulled out. The Bruins had 26 turnovers -- Kapono had 10 of them -- and UCLA shot only four free throws. If you're drawing up a plan to get blitzed, the last game was the blueprint. No. 7 Ohio State at No. 10 Indiana
The Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are not only competing for a Big Ten title, they are fighting for NCAA Tournament seeding. Given the strength of the Big Ten this year, taking care of the first goal automatically takes care of the second. Indiana has had a wonderful season, and it is great to see the Hoosier faithful with their chests out. While a loss to Notre Dame may have suggested otherwise, Ohio State has been here all the time this season. The Buckeyes still have not played their best game, yet they continue to find ways to win big games. This is a team with flexibility on defense -- it has the ability to play tough pressure man-to-man and it has Ken Johnson -- the premier shot-blocker in the game -- to erase mistakes. (Memo to all those who watched Johnson get dunked on by Morris Peterson: It takes guts to challenge a guy coming at you full speed with the angle to the glass -- the only way to get dunked on is to challenge someone in the first place, and Johnson was man enough to go after the block. So he gets my respect for not backing down). Indiana's defense has been credited for the Hoosiers' 18-4 record, and rightfully so. The Hoosiers play great half-court man-to-man, and they help each other very well. Not only do they pressure the ball, but their weakside rotation has been solid all season. They guard you individually, but they cover up as a team. The key to that has been the way they talk -- this team does a great job communicating with each other on defense, which lets them know where help is so they can get out and guard with confidence. But don't forget about Indiana's motion offense, because it has been outstanding. Indiana leads the Big Ten in scoring at over 80 points per game, and the Hoosiers are the league's top shooting team from the field, behind the 3-point arc and from the free throw line in Big Ten games. In my opinion, A.J. Guyton is the Big Ten Player of the Year. I don't think its even close. No player has been more important to his team this year than Guyton. He leads the Big Ten in scoring and shows remarkable consistency. Kirk Haston is another guy who has been very consistent -- he may not be the quickest guy on the floor, but he gets the job done better than the ones who are, and he works his tail off. Without Guyton and Haston having good outings, Indiana does not win. I also admire the play of Michael Lewis and Dane Fife as much as any two role players in the country. They are tough kids, and they play with passion and reckless abandon. The Buckeyes are a very dangerous team -- Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd can hang 30 points on you any game, George Reese and Brian Brown can go for 20 and Johnson can affect any shot inside of 15 feet. Ohio State runs a lot of quick hitters, post-ups, high-low looks, and an inside screen series. They also run flair screens out on the perimeter that seem to be popping up in other teams' systems a lot more now that Ohio State went to the Final Four last season. Ohio State is looking inside to Johnson more often, and he has been a more consistent threat. Redd is taking the ball to the basket more, which has improved his game because he doesn't have to rely on his jumper. Reese is the wildcard on this team. He is able to move the ball, shoot from the perimeter and can face up or post, proving to be a difficult matchup. And if there is a tougher kid than Penn when the game is on the line, please introduce him to me. Bob Knight has had a week to prepare for the Buckeyes, who are coming off of a tough loss to Michigan State (Indiana is probably thinking, "Been there, done that.") Indiana has been in every game they have played, and arguably could be undefeated. | ALSO SEE Holding Court: Fearsome defenses  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
