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Wednesday, December 18
Updated: December 21, 10:47 AM ET
 
Underdog role not enough for 'Noles

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

When the matchup between Georgia and Florida State was announced, I was sitting back waiting for the hype to build, for all the prognosticators to tell us UGA was going to kill FSU and Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt was going to teach former boss Bobby Bowden a lesson.

I was hoping to enjoy that hype and then pick the Seminoles to win this game, because they have proven this year in games against Miami and Florida that they play their best football in the underdog role.

Nick Maddox
Nick Maddox is the best weapon FSU has left.
But what has happened late in the year with Adrian McPherson being dismissed from the team and Chris Rix being suspended, things have changed and I am now one of those experts who thinks UGA will win the game and do so rather handily.

The FSU defense will play inspired because no one is giving it a chance, but because Georgia can attack in so many ways the 'Noles will eventually give up some big plays. I wouldn't be shocked to see Florida State play with enthusiasm, but the balance of quarterback David Greene, running back Musa Smith and a good group of receivers will be able to create enough offense to put some points on the board.

And with the Seminole's offense turning the ball over to third-string quarterback Fabian Walker, who attempted just eight passes this year, FSU has now become completely one-dimensional. The 'Noles will now relying strictly on Nick Maddox and Leon Washington in the running game, but to beat Georgia a team has to have more than that. The 'Dawgs will do everything they can to take that away and put as much pressure a possible on Walker.

On offense, UGA is a team that is blessed with an attack that can run the ball right at teams then they decide to focus on the spread passing attack. The Bulldogs will spread the opponent all over the field and then run Musa Smith at them, and and because Greene is an experienced who can recognize coverages he can check to a play that fits the defense he sees.

If teams Florida State stacks the line of scrimmage against Smith, Greene is going to check to a throw and get one-on-one coverage on the outside against Damien Gary, Fred Gibson and Terrence Edwards. But if the 'Noles spend too much time worrying about those guys, Georgia is going to hand the ball to Smith. That is a very versatile package that is very difficult to defend.

Knowing FSU defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews, one of the things we can expect to see the Florida State defense do is take a lot of chances and come after Greene. The Seminoles will play a lot of man coverage be in a feast or famine situation, either getting pressure and sacks on Greene or leaving themselves vulnerable in one-on-one matchups on the outside.

Florida State may win a few battles but will also lose a few, coming up with a some sacks and stops, but also giving up some big plays.

The underdog mindset will keep FSU in the game early, but in the end Florida State will not be able to do much against the UGA defense and the Bulldogs will have too much balance and versatility on offense. They will come up with some big plays and pull away.

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN's College GameDay







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