Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois, despite playing with what was labeled as a "rebuilding" group, produced a 7-4 record and earned its first bowl berth since 1994. The season was highlighted by upset wins over Michigan and Ohio State on the road. The Illini feature a balanced offensive attack. QB Kurt Kittner, after barely beating out senior Kirk Johnson for the job, proceeded to emerge as the leader of the team, throwing 22 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Kittner is an intelligent quarterback who picked up the offense quicker than most expected. He sees the field well and makes few mistakes with the ball, which is one of the main reasons that the Illini have been so successful this season. Kittner has found a niche with WR Michael Dean, the team's top receiving threat. Dean finished the season with 566 yards on 43 receptions. The key on offense, however, is the play of its line. When Kittner has time to throw, and the running lanes are open, this offense is as solid as any in the Big Ten. But when assignments are missed up front and there is too much penetration, the offense can fall apart in a hurry. The team relies on the running game to soften up the defense and set up the pass. RBs Steve Havard and Rocky Harvey combined to provide a running attack which almost averaged 160-yards per game.
The Illini have been spotty on defense, and finished ranked 87th in the nation, allowing 388.5 yards per game. This unit has been opportunistic, but may struggle against a Virginia offense that is heavily run-oriented. The line gets decent pressure, and was ranked fourth in the Big Ten with 30 sacks, but when the team is not getting to the quarterback, the secondary is in serious trouble. The secondary gives up 219.3 yards passing per game, but its primary focus will be in run support. The biggest difference-maker on this unit is LB Danny Clark, who led the defense with 115 tackles, including 11 for losses and three sacks.
Virginia Cavaliers
After a sputtering 3-3 start to the season, the Cavaliers finished by winning four of their last five games. The late season run game Virginia seven victories for the 13th consecutive season, and secured a Micronpc.com Bowl berth opposite Illinois. The Cavs' offense revolves around the effectiveness of RB Thomas Jones. Jones went over the 1,400 yard mark in the ninth game of the season and finished with 1,798, breaking the ACC record held by Don McCauley of North Carolina since 1970. Jones ranked second nationally in all-purpose yardage, and also became the first player in league history to run for 200 yards and collect 100 receptions in the same game (vs. Buffalo). Jones enjoys running behind the ACC's biggest offensive line, including OC John St. Clair and OG Noel LaMontagne, who head up one of the most physical run-blocking units in the nation. The passing attack definitely plays second fiddle to the run game, but the team is most successful when the attack is balanced by capitalizing on opportunities set up by the ground game. QB Dan Ellis battled a tough start and suffered a concussion midway through the season, but finished the last two games as the team's starter, completing 37-of-53 attempts for 639 yards and 10 TDs, boosting his QB rating from 123.2 to 145.0, good enough to finish eighth nationally.
The Cavaliers have taken pride in their defense in recent years, but a unit marred with injuries and hurt by departures for the NFL draft ended the year ranked 91st in the nation. MLB Yubrenal Isabelle is the group's biggest playmaker against the run, and he will be back for the game after battling a bout with mononucleosis. The team's biggest concern with the pass-happy Illini is its secondary, which features three freshman seeing significant time. This unit has come along slowly, but coach George Welsh likes what he sees from the trio of Jerton Evans, Shernard Newby and Chris Williams, who collected eight of the team's 15 interceptions on the season.
Keys to the game
1. Run support from the Illinois secondary. The Illini secondary has been picked on for most of the season, but it will be its ability to support in the run game that will make the difference. Thomas Jones is probably the most versatile back in all of college football, and is just about the extent of the Virginia attack offensively. If the Illini get great help from their secondary against the run, it will force the Cavaliers to go to the air. Illinois has allowed 219.3 yards per game passing, but it will take its chances against Virginia's passing attack.
2. Virginia QB Dan Ellis, the caretaker. The Cavalier offense is most effective when the quarterback takes care of the ball and limits mistakes. Since his return late in the season, Ellis has been extremely efficient and protective of the football, and that is why the Cavaliers finished so strong. Illinois is going to stack the line of scrimmage to stop Thomas Jones and the running game, which means that Ellis is going to have to make some throws to force the Illini defense into more honest looks, but the biggest key for Virginia is going to be Ellis' ability to limit mistakes and turnovers, giving the Cavs more offensive opportunities and the chance to sustain drives.
3. Inexperience in the Cavalier secondary. The Cavaliers are starting a trio of freshmen in the secondary, a scary thought against an Illini team that threw for over 2,500 yards this season. The trio of Jerton Evans, Shernard Newby and Chris Williams has made tremendous strides as a unit and each have developed into solid players, but this is still a major concern for George Welsh's team. The Cavaliers rank 91st in total defense, and if someone does not step up as a impact pass rusher in this game, the secondary could be in for a long evening.
War Room Edge: Illinois Fighting Illini
The Micronpc.com Bowl turns out to be one of the top matchups in all the postseason. Both the Illini and the Cavaliers are coming off strong finishes, and should be healthy on both sides of the ball. Virginia will be able to run the football against the Illini with great success, but the Cavaliers' weaknesses are glaring. George Welsh has a full month to find a way to protect his young secondary and bolster a marginal passing game against what should be a lot of eight-man fronts with man-to-man coverage on the wideouts. The winner of this game is going to be the team which gets great leadership from its quarterback and commits the fewest mistakes at the position. The Cavaliers will dictate the tempo of the game with a tough running attack, but the Illini have too many weapons to lose in what should turn out to be a shootout in Miami.
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