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Sunday, October 15 ESPN.com | ||||||||||||
Game of the Week | Thursday night | Sunday night | Monday night
Steelers (5-6) at Jaguars (10-1) 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN Line: Jaguars by 10½ Preview | War Room preview | Baxter's bits Joe Theismann's Thursday night spotlight
Why to watch: The Steelers, who are 4-2 on the road and a dreadful 1-4 at home, probably need to win their five remaining games to have any shot at the playoffs. However, Pittsburgh has never won in Jacksonville, so the battle starts with an uphill climb. The Jaguars own the NFL's best record and ride the league's longest winning streak at eight games. Despite their success, the Jags are only one game ahead of the Titans as they bid for their second division title in franchise history. Although the wins keep piling up, Jacksonville remains highly inconsistent. The Jags have reached the 30-point mark in four of their last five games, but right in the middle of that stretch was a six-point, 132-yard effort against Baltimore. After holding the opposition to single-digit scoring six times in their first nine games, the Jags have allowed 23 points in each of the last two weeks. Still, all that might be getting a little too picky. The bottom line is Jacksonville still has the NFL's No. 1 defense, has allowed fewer points than any team in the league (125) and has scored more points (287) than every AFC team but Indianapolis. Clearly, the Jaguars, who won the first meeting 17-3 in Pittsburgh, have the inside track toward home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Who to watch:
Tomczak will look to get the ball to rookie WR Troy Edwards, who leads the team with 42 catches for 500 yards, and second-year pro Hines Ward, who has scored four TDs. However, those two will face two excellent cover men in Jaguars CBs Aaron Beasley and rookie Fernando Bryant. The Steelers might again be without C Dermontti Dawson, who is the heart of their offensive line. Jaguars QB Mark Brunell has broke out of his slump to throw for 689 yards in his last two games. That has meant great things for Jaguars WR Jimmy Smith, who has caught 19 passes for 352 yards the last two weeks. Jaguars WR Keenan McCardell also broke out last week, joining Smith as the team's first two 100-yard receivers in the same game this season. Steelers CB Deshea Townsend, who replaces the injured Chad Scott, will be on the spot against the Jags' explosive tandem. Jaguars RB Fred Taylor continues to battle a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Don't be surprised if Taylor sits out again and gets another 10 days of rest before the team's Dec. 13 game against Denver. If Taylor doesn't go, Jaguars RB James Stewart will start. Stewart is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry, but he needs just 335 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark and has scored 10 touchdowns. Watch for Jaguars LB Kevin Hardy, who leads the team with 74 tackles and 8½ sacks, to blitz the immobile Tomczak. Jaguars DE Tony Brackens (eight sacks) will also look to add to his sack total, and defensive coordinator Dom Capers will call for plenty of zone blitzes against his former team.
Steelers' numbers to know:
Jaguars' numbers to know:
What it means: The Steelers have no margin for error if they're going to avoid missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season. Plus, how Pittsburgh plays over the final weeks probably will determine the direction of the franchise for the offseason.
Sean Salisbury's breakdown Pittsburgh needs offensive continuity, something Tomczak should bring. The veteran QB doesn't have Stewart's big-play ability, but Tomczak knows where to throw the ball and has more command of the offense. He is physically limited, but the Steelers just need someone who makes good decisions with the ball. He just needs to understand what offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride wants to do. The Steelers need to protect Tomczak, because the Jaguars will bring the rush and not allow Tomczak the time to make his reads. Stewart will return to his "Slash" role, moving to different positions. Jacksonville must now go back to film from 1996 to find ways to defend Stewart. He is a weapon and a big-play performer, so the Steelers need to put him on the field and use him to change the defense, not just as a gimmick.
Jaguars' game plan: Even though Taylor might be a game-time decision again, Stewart has been a steady back. With a 10-1 record, I would rather have Taylor sit out another week or two to get healthy for the stretch run. The offense is starting to peak. Maybe Brunell is becoming more comfortable with coach Tom Coughlin calling the plays. The Jaguars need to understand that the Steelers will zone blitz and do everything they can to confuse Brunell. The Jaguars will use maximum protection, blocking seven or eight defenders, and try to get the ball to Smith and McCardell, exploiting the Steelers in single coverage.
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