Quick quiz: Prognosticators and casual fans alike, how well did you handicap
the first half of the NFL season?
|  | | There has been no sophomore jinx for Edgerrin James, who's run for an NFL-best 921 yards. |
We suspect that in most cases, you find yourselves surprised at a number of
unpredictable developments in the AFC.
So what if you had the Colts atop the AFC East at 6-2? Big deal. That was a no-brainer, as bold as picking the Yankees as favorites to win the World Series. But, did you predict the Al Groh Jets and the Dave Wannstedt Dolphins right there at 6-2 with the Colts at the top of the division?
Who did you have leading the AFC West? Did you have the Raiders, playoff outsiders since 1993 (when they were still
playing in Los Angeles), leading the West with an AFC-best 7-1 record? Probably not.
Did you have the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team that's been knocking on the Super Bowl door with the most consistency over the last few years, reeling on life support at 3-6? Probably not.
Did you have the much-maligned Kordell Stewart saving the Steelers' season,
leading them to 5-3 after an 0-3 start? Probably not.
What about the Baltimore Ravens? Did you have them hanging on for dear life at 5-4 despite having gone the last five games without scoring a single touchdown?
Surely, you didn't have Gunther Cunningham talking to his players about resigning after only one week of the season and then turning things around to 5-3 at the turn.
Indeed, there has been captivating action from coast to coast in the AFC through one half of the season ... and it's only just beginning. Here's a look at the first half of the 2000 season in the AFC -- and what might happen the rest of the way.
Offensive MVP: Edgerrin James
Although he hasn't been perfect, running back Edgerrin James owns this award based on big numbers and consistency.
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| James |
James, the Colts' second-year do-everything back, leads the NFL with 921 rushing yards on 200 carries, good for a robust 4.6-yard average and eight rushing touchdowns. He has also caught 26 passes and has three receiving touchdowns, giving him
a total of 11 touchdowns, second in the league only to former Colt of the
same versatile ilk, Marshall Faulk of the St. Louis Rams.
The only drawback to James' standout season, which projects to 1,842 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns, is that he's lost two fourth-quarter fumbles. Other than that, he remains one of the most dependable stars in the game.
Defensive MVPs: Trace Armstrong and Ray Lewis
We're giving this award to two players. Although he's not even a full-time, every-down player, Trace Armstrong and his 11 sacks this season earn him half of the defensive MVP award.
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| Lewis |
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| Armstrong |
The other half goes to Ravens middle linebacker Ray Lewis, who's shed the frightening controversy from his arrest for murder last January to concentrate on only football again.
Lewis has a staggering 110 tackles, including 70 solo, through nine games. He also has one interception, a fumble recovery and a sack and has generally been all over the field for the Ravens' defense that has allowed a total of
45 points in the last six games.
Coach of the First Half: Al Groh
With due respect to Jeff Fisher, Jon Gruden and Wannstedt, the Jets' Groh is the top AFC coach at the season's halfway
point.
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| Groh |
Who expected Groh to replace Hall of Fame-bound icon Bill Parcells and succeed the way he has so far without
Bill Belichick running the defense and Keyshawn Johnson making big plays in
the secondary?
Groh quickly earned the respect of the players, something that's extremely
difficult to do when following such a strong presence such as Parcells. Just
ask Ray Handley, who's in the Witness Protection Program somewhere in the
straits of Nevada, and Pete Carroll, who went from innovative young head
coach to out of football.
The Jets' four scintillating fourth-quarter comebacks are a result of the
mental toughness Groh preached in a tougher training camp than Parcells ever
ran. He has preached a oneness on the team that has players believing
in each other.
There, indeed, appears to be something special happening with these Jets,
who have also pulled off a litany of daring trick plays that have been
difference makers in games. For reference, see Vinny Testaverde's 3-yard touchdown pass to 6-foot-7, 305-pound tackle Jumbo Elliott that completed a 23-point, fourth-quarter comeback and forced overtime in a 40-37 win over Miami.
AFC East forecast
Jets (6-2): They'll continue their magical path to the playoffs, finish
11-5 and make it to a second AFC Championship Game in three years only to be
thwarted by the Tennessee Titans this time.
Colts (6-2): They'll win the AFC East, as projected by many, but it won't
be easy with the Jets continuing to threaten. The Colts won't go further than
one victory in the postseason, though, because their defense isn't
playoff-tough.
Dolphins (6-2): The magic dust that quarterback Jay Fiedler has been sprinkling will slowly wear off, though his moxie will keep Miami in games
and keep the season interesting. The Dolphins' stingy defense will carry the
team to a wild-card berth.
Bills (4-4): An inconsistent first half will cost Buffalo a playoff berth. The resilient Bills have a difficult second-half schedule with road games at
Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis. Look for a 9-7 finish, just short of
a postseason berth.
Patriots (2-6): New England's schedule is softer than Buffalo's, but the
early-season struggles have left the Patriots in too big of a hole. At this point, Drew Bledsoe (sacked 30 times for 173
yards in losses) surviving the full season in one piece would be a nice goal.
AFC Central forecast
Titans (7-1): Tennessee should cruise to the division title, set itself up
for homefield throughout the playoffs and host the AFC title game. With Steve
McNair playing mistake-free football, Eddie George carrying the rushing load
on offense and a defense performing as sound as any in the conference, look for a
second consecutive Super Bowl appearance for the Titans.
Steelers (5-3): Impressive job of turning the season around after an 0-3
start. Kordell Stewart should be credited for helping lead this run, but the
"Bus," Jerome Bettis, has been truly carrying the load in a rebirth season.
Consider that Bettis has six rushing touchdowns while the Steelers as a team
have only three passing touchdowns. Where does this end? With a respectable 9-7
or 8-8 finish short of the playoffs.
Ravens (5-4): This is no adage, just common sense: If you can't score
touchdowns, you can't win games with any consistency. And the Ravens,
touchdown-less in their last five games (three losses), are finding out that
they cannot live on kicker Matt Stover (NFL-high 78 points) alone. A
terrific, feel-good start has been ravaged by this touchdown drought, and a
fantastic defense is being wasted. It'll all cost Baltimore a playoff berth.
Look for the Ravens to finish somewhere near the Steelers.
Jaguars (3-6): The Jags are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the
first time since their first-ever season in 1995. There are problems in
Jacksonville, where the quarterback (Mark Brunell) and the coach (Tom
Coughlin) have long been at odds. This looks like a forgettable season for
the Jags, who even with a fairly easy second-half schedule are destined for a
mediocre finish.
Bengals (2-6): The 0-6 start and resignation of Bruce Coslet defined the
Bengals' 2000 season. What's followed has been an aberration win over Denver
and a win over hapless and quarterbackless Cleveland. Don't look for any
major turnaround in the second half. This season has 4-12 written all over
it. As usual with Cincinnati, it'll be in that derby for who gets the first
overall pick.
Browns (2-7): Speaking of the first-round pick derby, the Browns will be
right there at the end. They're without their No. 1 quarterback, Tim Couch,
who's out for the season with a broken thumb. The season is a lost cause, with backup Doug Pederson inept and with Cleveland still unable to run the football.
AFC West forecast
Raiders (7-1): They've got a lot going for them, with Rich Gannon doing
everything he has to do to win (10 touchdowns, five interceptions, an 86.6
rating, 236 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns). He's complemented by
running backs Tyrone Wheatley (489 rushing yards and six touchdowns) and
Napoleon Kaufman (326 rushing yards and a 6.3-yard average). The Raiders have
made their mark winning close games (5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or
less), which was the bane of their existence in recent seasons. That trend
should continue and lead them to the AFC West title and their first playoff berth
since 1993.
Chiefs (5-3): Fantastic season from the often-maligned Elvis Grbac at
quarterback (19 touchdowns, only seven interceptions and a 96.4 rating). Grbac is
spreading the ball around and, even though the Chiefs' running game is by
committee as usual, he has the offense humming. Look for the Chiefs to snag
the last wild-card spot.
Broncos (4-4): They're still alive in the playoff hunt, but they're hoping running back Terrell Davis' comeback from his knee and ankle injuries is a success. Quarterback Brian Griese is having a Pro Bowl season with 16
touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Denver defense, though, is suspect
and could cost the Broncos a playoff berth, meaning they'd be out of the
postseason loop for two consecutive post-John Elway years after winning the
Super Bowl twice in a row.
Seahawks (2-7): Trouble is brewing in the coffee city. A year after winning the division and supposedly finding a quarterback (Jon Kitna), the
organization is in disarray. Kitna has been on and off the bench, having
thrown 11 interceptions and only six touchdowns. Seattle, which has lost five
in a row, can only hope to stay out of last place. The lone bright spot has
been running back Ricky Watters, who's gained 659 rushing yards and caught 23
passes.
Chargers (0-8): As sleepless as they are in Seattle, with Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren having to re-evaluate his personnel, they're winless in
San Diego with no relief in sight. Perhaps the best thing that can happen to
the Chargers is securing the first overall pick.
Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post writes an AFC notebook every Thursday for ESPN.com.
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