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Wednesday, July 16
Updated: July 18, 9:24 AM ET
 
QB Class of 2003 will learn on the sideline

By John Clayton
ESPN.com

Patience is difficult when more than $30 million of combined salaries stand idle along the sidelines. Drafting a quarterback in the first round and watching him sit is hard to do for most NFL owners.

Still, the smart money is on letting a rookie be a clipboard carrying apprentice instead of throwing him to the wolves of Cover 2 defenses, zone blitzes and aggressive pass-rushers off the corner. It's been well documented that half of the first-round quarterbacks have been failures since 1992, and the reason, more than anything else, is impatience.

Kyle Boller
Kyle Boller is expected to start the season as Chris Redman's backup.
That's why there is such hope for the quarterback class of 2003. Carson Palmer of the Bengals, Byron Leftwich of the Jaguars and Rex Grossman of the Bears are expected to do little this season. There is a chance that Kyle Boller of the Ravens could beat out Chris Redman in Baltimore, but if he does, he'll play under the guidance of Brian Billick and offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh. Those two coaches won't put Boller into too many difficult situations.

It's an interesting time for quarterbacks in the NFL. A steady stream of good young quarterbacks has been filtering into the league since 1998, and this class of four first-rounders will throw the balance of the league into the hands of the young guns. Thirteen teams are entering the season with starting quarterbacks they drafted in the past six years, and by next year, more than half of the league's offenses will be under the direction of home-grown prospects.

This "Golden Age" of quarterbacks doesn't have the flare of the 1983 era in which Dan Marino, John Elway and Jim Kelly revitalized the sport because it's been so gradual, but the position that front offices worried about has rebounded nicely since the end of the century.

Maybe teams have matured after trying to rush quarterbacks into play during their rookie years. Still, the numbers don't lie. Rookie quarterbacks do three things, and all three are usually bad. They throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Their completion percentage usually is in the low 50 percent range. And they lose more games than they win.

"It's always been astonishing watching teams bring in a rookie quarterback and then watching him fall flat on his face during that first year," Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Still, people continue to do that. It's like throwing someone into the water before they learn how to swim."

Let's look at the numbers. Peyton Manning had about as good a rookie season as one could envision. He completed 56.7 percent of his passes. He threw 26 touchdown passes. He completed 326 passes. He didn't miss a play. His quarterback rating was 71.2.

His record with the Colts as a rookie -- 3-13.

Only special quarterbacks can survive 13-loss seasons because fans lose patience too quickly and teammates treat losing young quarterbacks like jinxes. Football players are natural followers, but it's hard to stay following the offensive leader when he makes the critical mistakes as a rookie that cost his team games.

Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie. Troy Aikman threw 18 in 11 starts and 11 loses. Elway threw 14.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis knew the history of rookie quarterbacks when he agreed with owner Mike Brown about making Carson Palmer the first choice in the draft. The Bengals have enough offensive talent to be a team that could win six to eight games this season. But if Lewis uses Palmer this year, Palmer would be hardpressed to complete 54 percent of his passes, throw less than 15 interceptions and have a quarterback rating better than 66.

Translated, Palmer would learn on the job, but the Bengals would only win four or five games with a rookie quarterback. The smart move was to name Jon Kitna as the starter and let Palmer and Shane Matthews battle for the backup job, grooming Palmer to take over in 2004.

It's amazing what a year of sitting can do for a young quarterback. Daunte Culpepper sat during his first year and came back to start as a second-year quarterback, completed 62.7 percent of his passes and threw 33 touchdowns during a Pro Bowl season. Tom Brady took over the Patriots in his second year, completed 63.9 percent of his passes and picked up a trip to the Pro Bowl and a Super Bowl ring. Chad Pennington threw only 25 passes during his first two seasons with the Jets. Given the chance to start in the midst of his third season, Pennington completed 68.9 percent of his passes and had a 104.2 quarterback rating in a division-winning season for the Jets.

It's always been astonishing watching teams bring in a rookie quarterback and then watching him fall flat on his face during that first year. Still, people continue to do that. It's like throwing someone into the water before they learn how to swim.
Floyd Reese, Titans general manager

Palmer, Leftwich, Boller and Grossman could all be 60-percent throwers with ratings of 75 or better in the next two seasons if they aren't rushed into service this season.

"The history is that the first year for a quarterback is rocky as hell," said Colts general manager Bill Polian, who watched the growth of Jim Kelly, Manning and Kerry Collins. "You see progress by the second year and then by the fourth and fifth years, the quarterback should be fighting to win playoff games. By that sixth year, he should be ready to get to Super Bowls."

Great quarterbacks do great things no matter what. But what's interesting is seeing that playing a quarterback a lot as a rookie often slows his growth. Normally, a second-year quarterback who got banged around as a rookie can expect a six-percent increase in his completion percentage but only a minimal increase in his quarterback rating.

Manning, naturally, was the exception. His completion percentage had the excepted jump from 56.7 to 62.1 but his rating soared from 71.2 to 90.7. Tim Couch of the Browns improved from a 55.9 percent completion percentage to 63.7 but his quarterback rating jumped only four to 77.3.

What can be expected for David Carr of the Texans and Joey Harrington of the Lions? Carr, 4-12 as a starter who was sacked a record 77 times, should see his completion percentage go from 52.5 to around 58 and throw about 15 touchdowns. Harrington should add six to seven points to his 50.1 percentage and cut down his total of 16 interceptions in 12 starts.

They'll improve, but maybe not by that much in their second seasons.

"Each player is different but you expect a natural progression in the second year," Texans general manager Charley Casserly said. "Culpepper, Steve McNair, Brady and others all had the benefit of sitting the first year and doing well in the second. Still, the guys who played in the first year will get better."

It can be argued that the quarterback class of 2003 wasn't as ready to step onto the field as Carr or Harrington, but the good news heading into training camp is that the four first-rounders are projected backups. Combined, Palmer, Leftwich, Boller and Grossman will earn $30 million for doing little.

If they learn, the four teams that drafted them will be rewarded next year. So stay patient.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.





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