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Bucs out to slow the Ram-page
By Ron Jaworski
Special to ESPN.com
The St. Louis Rams are big favorites going into Sunday's NFC Championship Game, but they must be careful not to fall into the same trap that most teams do when they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
|  | | | Warrick Dunn will be counted for big plays both running and catching the ball. |
The Washington Redskins fell prey last week and lost. Like most teams, they looked at the Bucs' offense and said, "OK, we don't have to score a lot of points because they won't score a lot of points." The Redskins became ultra-conservative and played the Bucs' style of game -- be patient, don't go for big plays downfield, don't turn the ball over, don't be afraid of three-and-out possessions, and make the Bucs drive 80 yards for a touchdown.
A conservative, low-scoring football game is what Tampa Bay head coach Tony Dungy wants, but the Rams will not play along. They have played all 17 games with the same, pedal-to-the-metal approach. They have a quick-strike offense that tries to score first and often with its ultra-fast talent. The Rams will not change for the Bucs defense, which may be the NFL's best.
Rams coach Dick Vermeil has modeled his team after the Broncos, the Cowboys and the Packers: score points early and pound with the running game. Because the Rams like to score early, time of possession matters more in the second half than it does the first. Against the Minnesota Vikings last week, they scored two touchdowns after only five offensive plays. That's their style of offense.
More than likely, the Rams' points will not come as easily against Tampa Bay because the Bucs like to force teams to work the ball down the field. They are a conservative and simple defense -- not too complicated or sophisticated. The Bucs play their style extremely well and don't make mistakes or beat themselves. It is a well-oiled defensive machine under coordinator Monte Kiffin.
The Bucs' front seven, led by Warren Sapp, is absolutely phenomenal with tremendous speed. Linebackers Derrick Brooks makes plays from sideline to sideline, and John Lynch, the best safety in the game, must be accounted for in the running and passing game. He is a missile who reads well, plays instinctively and has excellent range.
The Bucs play the Vikings twice a year, but the Rams offense will be Tampa Bay's toughest defensive challenge. Kurt Warner's performance against the Vikings was phenomenal. Out of the 33 balls he threw, I thought only two may have been a little off line. His interception was a hair to the inside and underthrown, although I still think Isaac Bruce could have knocked it down or avoided the interception. And then there was one low throw he made to Az-Zahir Hakim on a crossing route. Other than that, Warner's throws were accurate, hitting the receivers in stride. Accuracy is always overlooked in quarterbacks, and Warner was precise with his passes and decisive in his reads.
We should no longer be surprised by Warner. No one has been able to catch up with him and slow him down. I don't think his season has been an aberration. We should continue to see Warner produce more seasons like this one. He is a talented quarterback with a strong and accurate arm playing in offensive coordinator Mike Martz's quarterback-friendly system.
On defense, the Rams are rock solid, finishing sixth overall. I thought last week they showed spurts of terrific football and spurts of rust, the result of having a week off. Looking at the tape and talking to the coaches, there were a number of times in the game when their linebackers and defensive line didn't maintain their gap responsibilities. They hit the wrong gap and tried to free-lance. Consequently, Vikings running back Robert Smith made some plays, taking advantage of the Rams' mental mistakes.
The Bucs offense is persistent with the run, but I don't think they are a very good running team. They will stick with the running game, though. So it will be imperative for the Rams defensive front seven to play with great discipline and poise and not try to make plays on their own. They must make plays within the design of the defense.
With only 25 regular-season touchdowns and two in the playoffs, the Bucs are not an explosive offense. They will remain patient and not throw the ball down the field, but the Rams will try to force rookie quarterback Shaun King to make plays.
One thing about King that would cause me concern is the speed of the Rams defense. They will be in his face quickly. There will be pressure from Kevin Carter and Grant Wistrom on the outside and D'Marco Farr up the middle. Carter and Wistrom are quick off the ball, and Bucs tackles Jerry Wunsch and Pete Pierson are not the quickest linemen out of their stance. King's poise will be tested by the Rams' pressure and the crowd noise.
Here are the keys to Sunday's NFC Championship Game for each team:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Tackle, tackle, tackle: The Bucs are a good tackling team that plays its gap responsibilities well. Tackling becomes even more vital against the Rams, who will set up matchups to get the ball to their quick receivers and Marshall Faulk on the perimeter in space against either the linebackers or secondary people. Although the Bucs are predominantly a zone team that will give up the short passes, the Vikings attempted the same conservative style against the Rams -- with little success. When they get the ball to Faulk, Az-Zahir Hakim and Isaac Bruce in space, they are such great open-field runners that almost every reception is like a punt return. That means the Bucs will have to tackle and contain well and wrap up receivers quickly.
2. King must be king: If there is one player who must come up big, it's King. Going into last week's game, King had thrown 146 times; only 12 balls traveled 20 or more yards down the field in the air, and only two were completed. Not only is that a low percentage of passes thrown down the field (8.2 percent), but also a low percentage of those passes completed (16.7 percent). Because of those numbers, the Rams will be sitting on 15-yard routes. Still, King must take shots down the field because 14 points won't be enough against the Rams. The Bucs will run the ball to a certain degree, but running the ball and control the clock doesn't normally result in points scored. They must get Jacquez Green involved in the passing game. The Rams will focus on taking Warrick Dunn out of the passing game, so Green will have to make big plays down the field if the Bucs will compete with the Rams.
3. Pound inside: Mike Alstott, Dunn and the Bucs offensive line do a good job of sustaining offense to keep the other team's offense on the sideline. Although the Bucs have only averaged 3.5 yards per carry this season, that is their style of play. They are a power running, tight end-oriented offense, running inside and occasionally trying to get the ball outside to Dunn. The Bucs have a much better opportunity of running inside between the tackles. Because the Rams have a fast defense, the Vikings had more success running inside, getting big bodies on smaller, quicker bodies. The Bucs have the weight and power advantage on their offensive line, so they should be more success handing the ball to Alstott and allowing him to run behind man-on-man blocking inside.
St. Louis Rams
1. Spread out and attack: What the Rams offense does under Martz's direction is come at teams in waves. They believe that the only team that can stop them is the Rams -- with dropped passes, fumbles and interceptions. They come out, attack, spread the field and, by design, create matchups that favor their personnel. After the game last week, I spoke to Vikings cornerback Jimmy Hitchcock, who said he had studied more Rams tape than he had for any game he has ever played. He felt the defense was totally prepared for all the Rams packages and looks. But because of the Rams' shifts, formations and personnel packages, Hitchcock said they created matchups that had Vikings linebackers covering wide receivers. So even if the Bucs are prepared, the Rams will try to do things quickly and force the Bucs into defensive mismatches.
2. Stop Sapp: This is the key for the Rams offense. Sapp has been the catalyst for the Bucs defense, both physically and emotionally. He gets the team fired up and into what they want to do: attacking the line of scrimmage and flowing quickly to the football. Rams guard Adam Timmerman is very familiar with Sapp after playing against him twice a year while with the Packers. That experience helps, but very seldom will the Rams have Timmerman block Sapp alone. The Bucs play Sapp in the gaps, either shading him to one side or another and slanting and stunting him. Most of the time the Rams will double-team Sapp and combo block him. Zimmerman will usually get help from center Mike Gruttadauria and tackle Fred Miller.
3. Get it Dunn: Dunn is the most explosive offensive player for Tampa Bay. He is involved in the running and the passing game and is the player the Bucs want with the ball. They will use check-down plays and screens. The Rams defense will put a big star on Dunn and cover him wherever he goes. If the Rams defense stops Dunn and the Rams offense handles Sapp, they will win the game.
Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski serves as a studio analyst for ESPN on Edge NFL Matchup and Monday NFL Countdown.
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War Room preview: Bucs at Rams