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| Thursday, August 31 By Mark Cannizzaro Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||
A year ago as we approached the NFL season, the AFC picture was seemingly so
crisp, sharp and seemingly cut-and-dried.
The Broncos were seeking a Super Bowl three-peat and, though losing John
Elway to retirement, Denver was still considered a significant threat because
Terrell Davis was still running the football.
In the AFC East alone, there are three new head coaches. Bill Parcells is gone from the Jets' sideline and replaced by first-time NFL head coach Al Groh. Pete Carroll was tossed from New England and replaced by Parcells' former defensive guru, Bill Belichick. And Jimmy Johnson has gone fishin', replaced by his best pal and former defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. Dan Marino is gone from the Dolphins and half of the Bills have left Buffalo. Keyshawn Johnson is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and the Raiders believe they're a bad-boy Polish kicker away from Super Bowl contention. The contenders The Colts are almost a lock to become the power of the AFC ... as long as they keep Manning healthy. Much the way the Jets looked like a can't-miss team entering '99, the Colts are younger and better. But a Manning injury could foil all of that.
There are a number of teams that can fall into this category. In fact, other than the list of teams with little to no shot, this is the largest grouping of teams, because the Colts, Titans and Jags are really the only cream of the conference. Seattle won the AFC West last season by default while the rest of the division was a disappointment. The Seahawks, with further development of quarterback Jon Kitna, should be in another battle to win the division, probably with the Raiders and Broncos. Denver, with Davis back but still a questionable quarterback situation, will reload and have a better year. Oakland, with the addition of controversial rookie kicker Sebastian Janikowski, believes it solved its problem and will win all the close games it lost in '99. The questions here are this: Were those close games a mirage? And, were the Raiders that close last year? With the gutsy Rich Gannon back at quarterback and with another solid year from running back Tyrone Wheatley, the Raiders could surprise some people. One team from the uncertain muddle of the AFC East will end up being a sleeper. Despite their rampant changes, the Jets are the most legitimate candidate to surprise. No one expects them to succeed without Parcells, Belichick and Johnson (replaced by Groh, Mike Nolan and the combination of Wayne Chrebet, Dedric Ward and Vincent Brisby). But those who predict bad things for the Jets forget that Vinny Testaverde is back and healthy again and Curtis Martin is arguably one of the best two or three running backs in the NFL. Don't underestimate what Chrebet can do as the No. 1 receiver, either. The major question with the Jets is their defense, which had been engineered masterfully by Belichick, the defensive mastermind. Nolan, an unproven success as a defensive coordinator, heads an entirely new defensive staff for the Jets and we believe there are going to be some tough transition periods. The Bills lost a chunk of their team, allowing many to flee via free agency, the most important of whom was defensive end Bruce Smith. Though Wade Phillips always seems to coach a resilient, contending team, the quarterback situation in Upstate New York is volatile. Rob Johnson might be starting over Doug Flutie but we haven't heard the last of this. In the Central, the only true sleeper could come be Baltimore, which has terrific defensive talent and an offense with potential. But that's about it. The rest of the division, well, stinks. The pretenders Miami, New England, Kansas City, San Diego. Though Miami still has a talented defense, new coach Wannstedt has a lot to deal with -- most particularly at quarterback, where two career backups, Damon Huard and Jay Fiedler, have been vying for the impossible job of replacing Marino. As usual, too, the Dolphins' running back situation isn't exactly clear-cut. As for the Patriots, they still have the second-best quarterback in the division in Drew Bledsoe, but their new head coach, Belichick, has yet to find anyone to run the football for them. Belichick should, however, immediately improve their defense. Kansas City, without its beloved linebacker Derrick Thomas, who died as a result of a car crash last January, still presents question marks in a number of areas, including quarterback with starter Elvis Grbac. The Chargers, though they made a flurry last year, are still trying to figure out who the quarterback is, with the immature and volatile Ryan Leaf still in the mix. Disappointments Pittsburgh, still blindly believing that Kordell Stewart is the quarterback to lead it to the Super Bowl, will find out that not only has the league figured out "Slash," but that backup Kent Graham is just that: a backup. Cincinnati is a perennial disappointment and this could be the end for Bruce Coslet, who has somehow been able to keep his job. Cleveland will make some moves to become better because Tim Couch will develop further at quarterback, but the Browns are still a contender for the No. 1 pick for a third straight season. Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post writes a weekly AFC notebook for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE
Mortensen: No panic in JacksonvilleWho will win the AFC? ESPN.com's NFL 2000 preview | ||||||||
