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Thursday, August 31
NFC's new trend: First to first
By Tom Oates
Special to ESPN.com

Ask anyone to name the favorites in this year's NFC race and the same three names invariably pop up.

Let's see, there's the Redskins. The Buccaneers. And don't forget the Rams.

Keyshawn Johnson
Keyshawn Johnson gives Tampa a much-needed playmaker.

Indeed, the short-list of contenders in the conference is so obvious even a football neophyte like Dennis Miller could figure it out. There's no guesswork involved. No lifelines are necessary. For once, the NFC race is easy pickings.

The Rams won the Super Bowl and return virtually the same cast of stars. The Buccaneers and Redskins also made the playoffs, acquitted themselves well while there and have had memorable offseasons. In a bottom-heavy conference where only four teams had winning records and two 8-8 teams squeezed into the playoffs last year, those three look like locks for division titles.

Before anyone starts handing out championship rings, though, a note of caution. People who automatically nominate the "Big Three" are ignoring an important history lesson. In the last two seasons, the NFC champion has sprung unexpectedly from the ranks of the perennial losers.

The 1998 Falcons and the 1999 Rams had sub-.500 records the year before they played in the Super Bowl and had done little to convince anyone that things would change. But by parlaying flimsy schedules and excellent health into incredible momentum, the Falcons went from worst to first in two years, the Rams from worst to first in one.

Logic, therefore, dictates that this year's NFC champion will be a team that finished in the second division last year, no matter how good the Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers appear to be. So which NFC team that had a losing record in 1999 should be voted "most likely to succeed" in 2000?

Sneaking up on the competition
With seven of the conference's 15 teams sporting records below .500 last year, there are plenty of candidates. Alas, there are few good ones. And what good ones there are seem to lack the ingredients -- explosive offense, opportunistic defense, veteran coach -- possessed by the Falcons and Rams the last two years.

Based on their successes in the mad scramble for personnel during a lively NFL offseason, the Cardinals, Eagles, Bears and Saints are the likely suspects to emerge from the second-division and end up at Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa.

However, the Cardinals and Saints suffered debilitating injuries during the preseason, robbing them of any momentum they gained in the winter and spring. And the Bears and Eagles have sophomore quarterbacks running the show. Peyton Manning aside, it's too much to ask a young quarterback to carry a team that still has holes elsewhere.

Since the other three sub-.500 teams from last year -- the Giants, Falcons and 49ers -- lost more in terms of people power than they gained during the offseason, it appears the NFC's worst-to-first trend will end as quickly as it began.

If form holds, it will be replaced by a new trend: first-to-first. The Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers all won division titles in 1999 and might not even be seriously challenged in 2000.

Minnesota, the only other NFC team with a winning record last year, also has a second-year quarterback at the controls. And the 8-8 teams -- the Lions, Packers, Cowboys and Panthers -- still have serious roster issues, most of them relating to potentially porous defenses.

As a result, the NFC looks like the "Big Three" and the "Dirty Dozen." Don't worry, though. At least the Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers will make it interesting. In fact, they already have.

Reloaded and ready
As owner/fan Daniel Snyder wrote checks totaling $100 million to stock the Redskins' roster with once and future Pro Bowlers, he generated more buzz than even ABC's hiring of Miller for Monday Night Football. Not surprisingly, the other contenders took offense to the attention being lavished on the Redskins. In fact, there's been so much overt jealousy the NFC looks like a sorority pledge party.

"All we've heard all spring is 'Redskins, Redskins, Redskins,' " Rams defensive tackle D'Marco Farr said disgustedly.

Buccaneers defensive tackle Warren Sapp, meanwhile, was happy to point out that it didn't matter how much Washington improved its defense because the Redskins offense couldn't find the end zone in a 14-13 playoff loss to the Buccaneers.

With so much emphasis on Washington, the Rams have found themselves in an enviable position. Partly because the Redskins and Buccaneers improved their rosters and partly because people half-expect another Falcons-style collapse from a Cinderella team out of the weak NFC West, many consider the Rams more fluke than favorite.

But what the Rams did last year was no fluke. They were the NFC's most complete team and they return every weapon that made them one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim and Marshall Faulk are the best home-run hitters in St. Louis this side of Mark McGwire and, with quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Trent Green, the Rams are double-parked at the most critical position of all.

The schedule gets tougher, but it still isn't like playing in the Big Ten. After facing two playoff teams in 1999, the Rams will face only four this year. Just as important, their unsightly new uniforms didn't arrive with the traditional Super Bowl bulls-eye on them.

"Everybody is talking about the Redskins and Tampa Bay," Rams linebacker Mike Jones said. "That's good because everyone is focusing on everyone but the Rams."

One team they're focusing on is Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers, who reached the NFC title game despite having the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, took steps to rectify that situation during the offseason. They traded for a premier wide receiver, Keyshawn Johnson, and added former Minnesota Pro Bowlers Randall McDaniel and Jeff Christy to their shaky offensive line.

"Keyshawn gives us some identity on offense," Sapp said.

But even the best defense in the NFC won't save the Buccaneers if Shaun King, another of those sophomore quarterbacks now in a starting role, can't improve on his playoff performance. Johnson's presence figures to make the offense more aggressive, but King must improve his accuracy to take advantage of that.

Hail to the Redskins?
If there's a favorite in the NFC, it's the "Super-Bowl-or-bust" Redskins. At first blush, it appears Snyder's Steinbrenner-esque spending spree has yielded a roster more talented than any since the Cowboys in the early 1990s.

The Redskins have four overall No. 1 picks in the NFL draft in Irving Fryar (1984), Bruce Smith (1985), Jeff George (1990) and Dan Wilkinson (1994). They also have six other former top-10 draft choices -- Deion Sanders, Mark Carrier, Michael Westbrook, Champ Bailey, Chris Samuels and LaVar Arrington. Seemingly, all of their bases are covered.

"We had a good football team returning and we added five or six guys that can make an impact," coach Norv Turner said. "We have put together what should be a real good football team."

By acquiring talent in willy-nilly fashion, however, the Redskins might have set themselves up for a face-plant. Snyder and Turner seem destined to clash over the quarterback job, with Turner favoring incumbent Brad Johnson, who is coming off a career year, and Snyder enamored of George, who wasn't wanted in Minnesota even though the delivered the Vikings to the playoffs.

Snyder was also instrumental in hiring Ray Rhodes to coordinate the beleaguered defense, another potential problem if the team doesn't get off to a fast start. Snyder considers Rhodes head coaching material and Turner's job security is shaky to begin with.

Another possible stumbling block is age. Fourteen key players will be in their 30s by the end of the regular season. Do aging players like Smith, Sanders and Carrier still have enough left in their tanks to elevate a defense that ranked 30th in the NFL?

If they do, the "big three" should have little trouble holding serve in their own divisions. But if they are challenged, it will likely come from the second tier of NFC teams, not the third.

The challengers
The Vikings still have a Rams-like aresenal with Cris Carter, Randy Moss and Robert Smith, but they also have inexperienced Daunte Culpepper as the triggerman and a suspect defense. Culpepper, who has yet to throw a regular-season pass, will be further handicapped by an offensive line that will miss McDaniel and Christy.

The Lions are the trendy pick to emerge as a serious contender, with one major caveat. Quarterback Charlie Batch has never played an entire season due to injury -- he couldn't even make it through this past offseason without getting hurt -- and the Lions aren't adequately backed up at the position now that Mike Tomczak is out for the year.

Assuming Brett Favre and Dorsey Levens overcome bouts with elbow and knee tendinitis, respectively, the Packers will have more than enough offense. However, the starting defense, dreadfully weak up front, hasn't forced a punt during the preseason.

The Cowboys spent their offseason trying to re-arm quarterback Troy Aikman for a late-career Super Bowl rush. The results were impressive, but a shaky post-Deion secondary could undermine the entire operation.

The Panthers have enough offense, providing that battered quarterback Steve Beuerlein can last 16 games. However, the 11th-hour additions of golden-agers Reggie White, Eric Swann and Eugene Robinson to the ineffective defense reeks of desperation.

The NFC's recent history aside, none of the above has the look of a Super Bowl team. More likely, the Rams will again roll through the NFC West with an 8-0 record and that'll be enough to give them the home-field advantage over the Redskins and Buccaneers in the playoffs. That's important because the Rams' speed makes them all-but-unbeatable on artificial turf.

Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes a weekly NFC column for ESPN.com.






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