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| Monday, December 18 Not what we expected By Ron Pollack Pro Football Weekly |
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Call off the search party. The Indianapolis Colts were finally sighted in Week 15 when they hammered the Buffalo Bills 44-20 before a national TV audience on "Monday Night Football."
A year ago, the Colts were a remarkable turnaround story, finishing the regular season with a 13-3 mark just one year after posting a 3-13 record.There were no major personnel losses this past offseason, making the Colts a popular preseason choice to reach the Super Bowl. If they are to reach those expectations, the Colts will have to do so playing a lot better than they have throughout the regular season. Who could have anticipated that the Colts would find themselves with a 9-6 record heading into Week 17, fighting for dear life just to make the playoffs? "I'll be honest with you, I'm as confused about what's happening there as anybody else," said an NFC pro personnel director. "I don't have any answers." Prior to his team's big win over the Bills, Colts quarterback Peyton Manning said, "That's what's frustrating. If it was something we knew for sure, we could pinpoint it. Basically, we've failed to make plays, and that's what this game is all about. We haven't done that this year." That's what is so maddeningly murky about this season's struggles for the Colts. It's not like there is one gigantic, obvious explanation. If any of their "Triplets" -- Manning, running back Edgerrin James or wide receiver Marvin Harrison -- had suffered a season-crushing injury, at least the Colts' six losses would make some sense. Heck, even when everything clicks, as it did in the recent blowout win over the Bills, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what has changed. In that game, the Colts' defense played marvelously, much better than it had been performing. The unit scored two touchdowns that night and pretty much shut down the Bills when the game was on the line. Yet, it's not as if the Colts made a significant change in strategy and could say, aha, that's what was missing for so much of the season. "Well, we had a secret, secret scheme tonight that I can't divulge," a very tongue-in-cheek Colts defensive end Chad Bratzke said after the game. "No, there was nothing different. It was just a matter of getting after it and playing with intensity and playing assignment, sound defense." The bottom line is that there is no single, gigantic, easy-to-pinpoint explanation. A lot of things have happened this season to keep the Colts from fulfilling the lofty predictions that were made about them. With that in mind, we give you several looks at why the Colts have struggled to meet expectations. First, there is what the Colts see when they look in the mirror. Secondly, there is what the rest of the league sees. For this, we asked NFL pro personnel directors and scouts for their analyses. All provided their comments on the condition that their names not be used.
Defense "We haven't played well the last few weeks," Colts defensive lineman Brad Scioli said after registering six tackles and two sacks against the Bills. Scioli spoke with pride about the defense's strong performance, then took a good look in the mirror and said, "We have been taking a lot of flak, and a lot of it is rightfully deserved. We hadn't played up to our potential, and I think tonight (at) some times we played to our potential and showed things we could do. That's what we have to do. We have to be consistent. Throughout the year, we haven't been consistent." Bratzke said, "The key defensively for us was that we started fast. We went out there, and we were ready to play, and that's something we've been working on. A few games in the past we've had trouble. We've gotten behind, and it's no fun and it's hard to catch up. So we went out, and we did start fast. We were very proud of how we played defense. We had two touchdowns defensively and quite a few sacks (nine). We got after it today. That's something we've got to continue to do -- consistency." The fact that the Colts were harping on consistency showed that they realized one game does not a season make. The fact is, the Bills were a team tailor-made for the Colts' defense to get healthy against. Bills left tackle John Fina did not play against the Colts, giving the Indianapolis pass rush a tremendous advantage. Combine that with the fact that Bills quarterback Rob Johnson has a tendency to hang on to the ball too long ("He was like a deer in the headlights; he freezes," said an NFL insider of Johnson's performance against the Colts) and the Colts' ability to go into attack mode when they got a big lead, and it all adds up to a big night of sacks for Indianapolis. Keep in mind, the Colts' defense ranked only 21st in the NFL in QB sack percentage heading into the game.The Bills game also showed what can happen when the Colts win the turnover battle. The Colts' defense intercepted two Buffalo passes and recovered one fumble. The Colts' offense did not turn the ball over at all. Prior to the game, the Colts were minus-11 in turnover ratio, due mostly to the defense's inability to create turnovers.
"You've got to make plays," Colts head coach Jim Mora said. "That's been our problem all season. We haven't been able to take the ball away." Run defense also has been a problem this season. The Bills did not run the ball well against the Colts in Week 15, but Buffalo's running backs all had subpar yards-per-carry averages entering the game. The Colts ranked 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game heading into the action. As a point of reference, one week after a 17-carry, 29-yard rushing effort against the Bears that he called "embarrassing," Jets running back Curtis Martin shredded the Colts' defense for a career- and franchise-high 203 rushing yards in Week 14. Colts players and coaches have used words such as "spotty" and "inconsistent" to describe their run defense this season.Another problem for the Colts' defense this season has been its inability to protect leads. In Week 2, the Colts built a 21-0 lead against the Raiders, only to lose 38-31. In Week 13 against the Dolphins, the Colts led 14-10 late in the game before allowing Miami to march 86 yards for the winning touchdown. There also have been a couple of games in which the Colts built huge leads and had to hold on for dear life to win.The problem? "That's the question of the year right there," Colts defensive end Mark Thomas said a few weeks ago. "You don't ever want to let them think, even for a second, that they have a chance to come back. You want to slam the door on them. But we just don't come out with that kind of intensity." The solution? "We need to have a go-for-the-throat mentality when the game's on the line," Thomas said. What the rest of the league sees:
Offense Sure, there have been some problems. During three road games between Weeks 10 and 14, the Colts were held scoreless in the first half each time. In defense of the offense, however, the Colts did score 24, 24 and 17 points in the second halves of those games. But, with the Colts leading 14-10 and in field-goal range with 2:56 left to play against the Dolphins in Week 13, Manning threw an interception that set the table for Miami's 86-yard, game-winning drive. That said, Manning, James and Harrison have all put up tremendous numbers this season, and the Colts rank among the NFL's elite in yardage and scoring.The bottom line is that the offense is nowhere near as much to blame for the team's disappointing record as the defense. But when a Super Bowl contender struggles, every part of the team gets put under the microscope, so let's take a look at ... what the rest of the league sees:
Odds and ends In Week 14, the Colts were trailing the Jets 20-17 in the fourth quarter and had the ball at their own 20-yard line. Then a fluke play sunk the Colts, as center Jeff Saturday's shotgun snap got stuck in the turf, barely moved a yard and was recovered by Jets linebacker Bryan Cox. The Jets went on to score a touchdown to put the game away. "It was a freak play there on the snap," Manning said. "You won't see that happen again in five years." If not the bad-bounce theory, how about the expectations-were-too-high theory? "I knew it was going to be a lot more of a struggle this year," Mora said. "The expectations were extremely high by people outside the organization, and I had some concerns back in training camp."I knew we weren't going to win 13. That doesn't happen very often." What the rest of the league sees:
Ron Pollack is the editor-in-chief for Pro Football Weekly.
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Material from Pro Football Weekly.
