Thursday, December 21
Never too early and never too late




In the days of the current topsy-turvy NFL, getting out of the gates fast doesn't guarantee a spot in the playoffs and a sluggish start doesn't mean you'll be home for the postseason.

Bill Cowher
After an 0-3 start, Bill Cowher has the Steelers in position to sneak into the playoffs.
The first cases in points are the Rams and Jets. The defending Super Bowl champions came out flying, literally, at 6-0, while Al Groh's club won their first four games. With one game to play, St. Louis needs to win and get help (from the Bears) to reach the playoffs, while New York needs a victory at Baltimore, winners of six straight, to assure themselves of a postseason berth.

From 1990 to '99, 41 of 51 teams that opened the season 3-0 or better have reached the playoffs. The 10 teams that did not make the playoffs following a 3-0 start were the '93 Browns (3-0), Eagles (4-0) and Saints (5-0), the '94 Giants (3-0), the '95 Rams (4-0), the '96 Dolphins (3-0) and Chiefs (4-0), the '98 Saints (3-0) and Seahawks (3-0) and the '99 Patriots (4-0). By the way, the last team to open 6-0 and fail to make the playoffs were the 1978 Washington Redskins, who started 6-0 but finished 8-8.

Conversely, both the Packers (0-2) and Steelers (0-3) can still qualify for the playoffs this year despite their dismal starts.

A total of 14 teams have now made the playoffs from 1989 to '99 following a 0-2 start or worse. The Cowboys won Super Bowl XXVIII and the Patriots made it to Super Bowl XXXI. The Steelers are on this list twice.

Slow Start to Playoff Finish
Year Team Start Result
1998 Arizona 0-2 9-7 (Wild Card)
1998 Buffalo 0-3 10-6 (Wild Card)
1998 N.Y. Jets 0-2 12-4 (AFC East Champs)
1996 New England 0-2 11-5 (Lost Super Bowl XXXI)
1995 Detroit 0-3 10-6 (Wild Card)
1994 New England 0-2 10-6 (Wild Card)
1993 Pittsburgh 0-2 9-7 (Wild Card)
1993 Dallas 0-2 12-4 (Super Bowl XXVIII Champs)
1992 San Diego 0-4 11-5 (AFC West Champs)
1991 Atlanta 0-2 10-6 (Wild Card)
1990 Philadelphia 0-2 10-6 (Wild Card)
1990 New Orleans 0-2 8-8 (Wild Card)
1990 Houston 0-2 9-7 (Wild Card)
1989 Pittsburgh 0-2 9-7 (Wild Card)

And if Pittsburgh were to reach the playoffs this year, the Steelers would become just the sixth team in NFL history to open 0-3 or worse and earn an invitation to the postseason party.

From 0-3 to the Playoffs
Year Team Start Result
1998 Buffalo 0-3 10-6 (Wild Card)
1995 Detroit 0-3 10-6 (Wild Card)
1992 San Diego 0-4 11-5 (AFC West Champs)
1982 Tampa Bay 0-3 5-4 (Super Bowl Tournament)
1981 N.Y. Jets 0-3 10-5-1 (Wild Card)

To overcome a 0-3 start and reach the playoffs would be quite an accomplishment for Bill Cowher and company, and would be quite a reversal of fortune. In both 1998 and '99, the Steelers got off to 2-0 starts and failed to finish the seasons with a winning record.

Russell S. Baxter is the chief NFL researcher for ESPN and a senior reporter for ESPN the Magazine.





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