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Wednesday, November 8, 2000
Scouting as important as ever
By George Johnson
Special to ESPN.com
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The motto of Canada's Royal Canadian Mounted Police has, for as long as anyone can remember, been the highly theatrical: They always get their man.
One-time RCMP officer Ian McKenzie has the same mandate in the job he's held down for over two decades now: NHL scout. (Actually, to be technically correct for scouting purposes, please amend the slogan to "They're expected to always get their man.")
And if they don't ... potential disaster. On a scout's recommendation can ride reputations, millions of dollars, and -- in the case of small-market Canadian teams more and more dependent on building through the draft -- survival itself.
On shrewd drafting, the foundations of champions, even dynasties, are laid.
"To be a scout, first off, there has to be a genuine love of the game," says McKenzie, a fixture in the Flames organization since its tenure in Atlanta. "I mean, you can't be living out of a suitcase, driving to rinks in small towns or being at a major junior tournament overseas for two weeks without enjoying what you do.
"The second ingredient for a successful scout, in my opinion, is experience. Remember, you're projecting the future success or failure of a team. It's a tricky business. So the more you've seen, the better off you are to make an important call on a player."
McKenzie is readying for his 29th NHL draft this weekend at the Saddledome in Calgary, making him the unofficial longest-continuous-service bird-dog in the business.
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There's such emphasis put on
scouting today. Which makes life a lot more
enjoyable for the guys out there. Now there's a
fraternity on the road. Before, you could go days,
even weeks, without seeing another scout. It
could get pretty lonely. ” |
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— Calgary Flames scout Ian McKenzie |
This is, of course, a tense time for the 30 teams, which pour over lists compiled throughout an exhaustive year of travel, of interviews, of trying to pick up information and glean a correct read on a kid who not that long ago didn't even qualify for a driver's license.
Early first-round selections are sometimes no-brainers. Witness Mario Lemieux or Denis Potvin or Dale Hawerchuk, as three examples. But in a draft year such as this one where no single player is so dominant, so automatic or so can't-miss, it is crucial for a struggling team to choose the right player for its future.
McKenzie figures he logs upwards of 200,000 miles a year scouting. In pursuit of future stars, he's seen the world, as the saying goes, or at least a pretty good chunk of it. Japan. Sweden. Finland. Russia. The Czech Republic. Ukraine. Slovakia. Switzerland. Germany.
"When I started out with St. Louis, we had one full-time scout and four-part time, two in the east and two in the west," McKenzie said. "Now, every team has at least double that.
"There's such emphasis put on scouting today. Which makes life a lot more enjoyable for the guys out there. Now there's a fraternity on the road. Before, you could go days, even weeks, without seeing another scout. It could get pretty lonely.
"Another difference is the tournaments. There are so many opportunities now to see a whole bunch of kids in one place at one time. And not just at the World Juniors. You used to scout games. Period. Where you'd be targeting one player or, if you were lucky, maybe two."
Before, hockey scouting consisted almost solely of the Canadian Major Junior leagues. Now U.S. colleges have entered the picture. And, of course, the vast talent pool of Europe, west and east.
In no other North American-based major professional sport is there a wider coverage base to be explored.
"Europe," says McKenzie, "is looked upon as a league now. You scout it the way you would the Western Hockey League or the Ontario League."
The expanding scope of the sport, the dollars involved and the dynamics of putting a successful team on the ice have made for a more stressful job as a scout.
"The pressure is really two-fold nowadays," says McKenzie. "With a 20-year-old draft, you had two more years to look at these kids, get a read on them. Now, at 17 or 18, when they're not ready to play in the NHL yet, it really is, as everybody says, a crapshoot.
"Problem is, people say that but don't really look at it in those terms. They still expect a first-rounder to be a star, whether you're choosing him at 20 years old or 17 or five."
The other factor that can't be ignored in today's hockey world, except by a few teams, is money. "A first-rounder now automatically expects to get the salary cap," McKenzie said. "Well, that's $1 million U.S. a year plus a $1 million signing bonus. Teams are on the hook for $4 million before the kid even shows up to camp. If you're the guy promoting a 17-year-old who's guaranteed $4 million and turns out to be a disappointment, you wouldn't believe how fast your popularity plummets.
"Even in the days of Lanny McDonald, Tommy Lysiak, John Davidson and those guys, top first-rounders, teams were only shelling out $100,000 signing bonuses. Now, ninth rounders are demanding $100,000 to sign! It's crazy, but that's the market at the moment."
In today's NHL, teams gather as much information on a potential pick as is humanly possible. They compile data on skill level, naturally. But they also gauge one's character and off-ice habits -- even agents.
"Look at the trend that's developed to choose Europeans or college players with late-round picks. Everybody does it now. Why? Because the agents of major junior prospects will hold their players out if they don't get the money they want and put 'em back in the draft," McKenzie explained.
"With Europeans or college players, you can leave them at home or at school for four years to develop and there's no hassle. When they do arrive at an NHL training camp, they're more mature. And you haven't had the headache of perhaps losing them."
With a shorter draft, says McKenzie, every pick becomes crucial. "Back in the days of the 13- 14-round drafts, by the end of the days teams would be handing their lists to other teams, just to get out of there.
"Not anymore."
Calgary has produced some famous late selections, Theo Fleury being the most prominent, selected 166th overall in the eighth round. Calder Trophy winner Gary Suter went in the ninth with the 180th pick, 50-goal winger Hakan Loob in the ninth at 181st, future Hall of Famer Brett Hull in the sixth round at 117th.
These types of discoveries are as much good luck as good management. But they prove that gems can be unearthed from unlikely places.
"And that's the scout's job, really," says McKenzie. "To help your team make the best selection it can when it comes time to make a pick. You have to take your seat the table on draft day fully confident in the list you've assembled. There's a lot riding on the players you're going to pick that day.
"As a scout, you're banking on your intuition and experience. You just hope -- no, you pray -- that all the work you've done through the year, all the miles you've traveled, pay off in the end."
George Johnson covers the NHL for the Calgary Sun and is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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