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Tuesday, September 5
The numbers point to Wells
Special to ESPN.com
Editor's note: The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com. You can check out more of their work at their website at baseballprospectus.com.
The acclaimed New York media bias certainly wasn't in evidence earlier this season, when every sportswriter in the nation was ready to lambaste the Yankees for the February 1999 trade of David Wells to the Blue Jays for Roger Clemens. Wells was a gaudy 15-2 before the All-Star break, while Clemens was just 4-6 before going on the DL in June with a groin injury. Nothing could be sweeter than watching the popular and media-friendly Wells prove the mighty Yankees wrong, could it?
However, the difference between the two pitchers wasn't as significant as the writers would have had you believe. Most of the difference came from the misplaced focus on won-lost records, despite mounds of evidence that those records have more to do with run support, bullpen strength and defense than they do with the performance of the pitchers themselves.
So, with a few more months behind us, let's take a look back at the main players in the deal to see which team, if either, could be said to have gotten the better of the trade, and whether the pitchers' disparate won-lost records tell us anything at all.
Roger Clemens and David Wells, mano a mano
ClemensKey: RA = Run Average, including unearned runs. SNW, SNL = Support-Neutral Wins and Losses. SNWAR = Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement, where replacement-level is defined as a .425 pitcher. I've presented both some traditional statistics, showing how effective Clemens and Wells have been at preventing runs and baserunners, and some Support-Neutral statistics, introduced in this space by Michael Wolverton last week. Support-Neutral Won-Lost records estimate what a pitcher's won-lost record would be if the pitcher had received run support and bullpen work in each of his starts. In other words, when a pitcher pitches well enough to win, he gets a Support-Neutral Win; when he pitches poorly enough to lose, he gets a Support-Neutral Loss. The SN numbers are adjusted to reflect the ballparks in which the pitchers pitch, and since Yankee Stadium is a pitchers' park while Skydome is a hitters' park, that's relevant here. What jumps out at me is that the two pitchers have pitched reasonably similar over the past two seasons, with Wells holding a big edge in durability and a slight edge in effectiveness. Wells has shown greater start-to-start variability in his performances since the trade: when he's on, he's usually very good; when he's off, he's horrible. This skews his ERA downward, but doesn't affect his Support-Neutral numbers. For example, a pitcher can give up five runs in three innings or nine runs in three innings, but his team can only lose one game. But it also appears that perceptions of Clemens are tainted by his modest 10-6 won-lost record this year. Compared to Wells' 18-5 record, it makes Wells look several wins more valuable than Clemens, when the SN numbers show a difference of less than a win and Clemens' ERA is actually half a run lower than Wells'. Is this perception fair? Clearly not. On July 29, Clemens pitched seven shutout innings, but the Yankee bullpen coughed up a lead and Clemens took a no-decision. In his next start, Clemens pitched seven innings and allowed six baserunners, but took another no-decision as the Yankees only scored one run while Clemens was still in the game. In the start after that Clemens pitched seven innings and gave up three runs -- not great, but still pretty good -- and again took a no-decision as the Yankees rallied late for the win. And in his second to last outing, Clemens gave up three runs through eight innings, but Joe Torre inexplicably sent him out for the ninth inning, where Clemens surrendered the first two runs of a game-tying five-run rally. Clemens pitched well enough to win all four games, but in each one, his offense and/or his bullpen let him down. If this deal was all she wrote, we'd have to say that the Blue Jays had the edge, albeit a smaller one than most people believe. Ah, but then there is the great equalizer ... Homer Bush If the enemy of your enemy is your friend, then Bush was the Yankees' best man this year. Bush occupied second base in Toronto for most of the first half of the 2000 season and did nothing but create outs. In 1999, Bush surprised a lot of people by hitting .320 with acceptable defense and good baserunning. True, it was an empty .320 -- Bush never walks and has minimal power -- but it's hard to hit .320 and not help your team a little bit, particularly if your position is on the left side of the defensive spectrum, as second base is. But in 2000, Bush put up a season more consistent with his weak minor-league performances. Before going down with a possible season-ending injury, Bush hit just .215/.271/.253. In over 300 trips to the plate, he had just nine extra-base hits and drew just 18 walks; nearly three out of every four Bush trips to the plate resulted in an out. He stole nine bases but was caught four times, putting his success rate below the 70 percent threshold that more or less marks the break-even point for base stealing. This is all even more appalling when you consider where Bush plays half his games: Skydome, one of the top hitters' parks outside of Colorado. Overall, Bush was arguably 17 to 18 runs worse than a replacement-level second baseman and 27 runs worse than the league average, meaning he cost his team 2-3 wins versus a good Triple-A second baseman. Combined to the one or two wins he earned last year, Bush has been a net negative for Toronto since he arrived. Graeme Lloyd In the deal, the Blue Jays also acquired an adequate left-handed reliever, Lloyd, who posted unspectacular numbers for them in 1999 before leaving for Montreal as a free agent. (He will miss the entire 2000 season after elbow surgery). Lloyd allowed 36 runs (29 earned) in 72 innings last year, and was worth between a half a win and a whole win to his team compared to an average reliever. Conclusions Indeed, despite the best efforts of Bush, it appears that the Blue Jays have gotten the upper hand so far in the deal by a small margin, one to two wins at most. If Clemens remains healthy and continues to pitch well down the stretch, the gap may narrow, but the Jays will likely still have received more value than they gave up unless Wells implodes. In addition, the example makes clear that won-lost records are useless in trying to compare two pitchers. Roger Clemens and David Wells have been within one win of each other in performance so far this season, a fact obscured by the Blue Jays' strong offense and the Yankees' suddenly ineffective bullpen. Keith Law writes for the Baseball Prospectus, the annual book by the same name, covering over 1500 players with in-depth statistical analysis and hard-hitting commentary. Keith may be reached at klaw@baseballprospectus.com.
ERA IP RA H HR BB SO 1999 4.60 187.2 (101) 185 20 90 163 2000 3.72 152.1 (75) 139 18 64 134 SNW SNL SNPct SNWAR 1999 11.0 10.4 .513 1.88 2000 9.7 7.3 .570 2.46 Wells
ERA IP RA H HR BB SO 1999 4.82 231.2 (132) 246 32 62 169 2000 4.23 181 (93) 212 18 28 136 SNW SNL SNPct SNWAR 1999 13.9 12.1 .534 2.83 2000 11.9 8.5 .584 3.25
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